This weekend at ufc316 former Bellator champion patchy mix makes his ufc debut vs Mario Bautista. And I’m picking Bautista and here’s why. Bautista is a good freestyle wrestler with good striking. Despite his boring fight vs Aldo, he is pretty fun to watch. Patchy mix is a former world champion but he hasn’t fought the best of the best. He’s fought guys like horuguchi and Sergio Pettis who are respectable opponents but Bautista is young and hungry. It’s also a short notice fight for mix which most people forget, it’s only a months notice. Mix isn’t proven in the ufc and if he doesn’t get this to the ground I don’t see a way of him winning. Bautista has as mentioned good wrestling and if he can stop takedowns he wins this on the feet, people are underestimating Mario. Bautista has very good boxing, good with long combos, has very good cardio, good fight IQ, good kicks. He’s also a switcher so he’s difficult to read. Mix is taller with a longer reach but bautista’s kicks can be of good use and he can work the boxing on the inside as well, Bautista has also proved some solid TD, good scrambles. The shakey thing Bautista has shown is despite that he’s shown decent TD and has decent wrestling, he has been taken down quite a lot, especially in the first round. If Bautista doesn’t push the pace vs mix he could lose, he needs to pressure and not be submitted in the first, Bautista gets better as the fight progresses. If Bautista can survive the first I think he wins this, mix obviously has lots of 5 round experience and good cardio and I don’t think he’ll gas but I think he’ll have a hard time taking Mario down and I think Mario’s boxing pressure will be to much. My pick is Bautista by decision.