FOREWORD Hey y’all, welcome to the revised edition of the most detailed guide on how to make successful picks in Verdict history (yeah, I said it). Also, I WON’T CONTINUE POSTING PICK ADVICE NONSTOP AGAIN and keep diversifying my posts. I’m getting really good feedback from them. If you are new and like this guide, screenshot it and use it as a reference while making picks. If you aren’t new, please comment on whatever I’ve missed or new tips and tricks for making better picks. Even though I’m still a bit new, every section that I wrote down here helped me rank up quickly. I learned all this from personal experience and better users so far. So please comment away for questions and better tips. Thank you, guys, and I hope this helps. The Complete TexMex Method: STEP 1. Click on the fighters’ profiles, don’t even look at the odds, global picks, or friend picks. Save those for AFTER you make your final, unbiased decision. This MUST be the first step you take. STEP 2. You don’t have to do Step 2’s directions in order, but these are the factors that you’re looking for: Age: Compare their birth years; this is a great way to determine whether they’re in their physical prime, close to it, or far past it. Experience: You can tell right away that a fighter with more wins and losses than another is probably older than their opponent. But that also means they’re veterans to the sport and have taken down many newbies and other veterans alike. Long-Term Damage Taken: Like experience, more fights means they’ve probably got some old wounds that continue to affect their performance and activity. Usman and his knees are a great example of this. This is also true if a fighter has recently recovered from a serious injury or is injury-prone. Recent Fights: Look for fighters who have been more recently active. The best-case scenario is someone who last fought this year. If they haven’t, rely on one or two years before at most. Don’t pick someone who last fought in 2021 just because they won by a 1st round TKO compared to someone who lost in 2025 to a 2nd round submission. Compared to actively fighting, there is a stark difference compared to taking a break and training camps to get back in shape. Previous Opponents: Win or lose, it doesn’t matter if you don’t consider their past opponents' toughness. If one guy is 11-0 by crushing cans (bad fighters), it’s more than likely that someone who’s only lost to monsters like Ilia Topuria or Alexandre Pantoja will rip him apart. Previous MMA Promotions: The same principle applies to studying their past opponents and the fighter’s individual experience. Knowing about respected MMA promotions outside of UFC/PFL is an excellent way to learn more about a new fighter. However, the level of competition and experience are essential to consider. For example, if there’s a fighter on a 4-win streak from Fury FC or Cage Warriors making his UFC debut against someone who’s been a journeyman in the UFC for some time, I’d go for the journeyman who’s fought more elite opponents; not everybody needs to be as driven as a contender or a champion to win a fight. Odds: Odds determine who’s the favorite (the fighter most likely gonna win) and the underdog (the fighter most likely to lose). On Verdict, the odds are the little numbers next to the fighters’ icons and the KO, Submission, and Decision buttons (I call them Victory Methods) when you’re making the pick. This will be explained further in Chapter I. Percentages of Victory Methods (KO, Submissions, Decisions): Here’s a fun one, it’s pretty straightforward. So let’s say I see someone with a majority percentage of 74.6% of winning fights by decision, the smart thing to do is to pick that fighter to win via decision right? BUT once again, only rely on their most RECENT activity. One trick I do to get a good underdog lock is to see how the favorite usually loses. If the favorite commonly loses via submissions, and 65% of the underdog’s wins are from submissions, then there you go. Remember, underdogs win big, and the less likely the prediction is on how they’d win gets you to rank up faster. High risk, high reward. STEP 3. XP Boosts: This one’s my favorite, this must ALWAYS be the next to last step. XP boosts are what make or break your chance of winning a top 10% belt or being in the top 25% so it’s super important. A common mistake that new users make, including myself when I was a white belt, is to equally distribute XP boosts. Try not do that, the best way is to find a good underdog lock and to max out all of your 600 XP on that single fight. Doing that is what gets you big wins. Heck, just look at the past events of black belts, I’m not lying. If you’re unsure, you can also put in less than 600 and distribute the remaining XP to at least 1 or 2 other fights. 450 and a lower number works. Your XP distribution MUST BE UNEVEN, no matter what. It doesn’t matter if you got all the other fights wrong, you’ll still place in the top 10% or 25 % even if only your maxed-out boost wins. If that doesn’t work, you can also pick underdogs to win fights without having to boost XP with the 600 XP boost. STEP 4. Friend Picks and Global Picks: As I mentioned in Step 1, this MUST be the final step. Regarding my view on them, as well as experienced gamblers, they can be helpful, but ALWAYS take them with a grain of salt. Anything can happen in a fight, even the impossible. If you wanna win big, try to go against the grain if you’re bold enough. Friend picks are very helpful if they mostly favor the underdog. Yes, global picks are made by more experienced people, but they can be flat-out wrong and cost you a win. Change your pick if you want based on the other picks but be very careful, there will be times where your previous pick actually happens, I suffered that during Taira vs Park. CONCLUDING REMARKS: Making fight picks is all about luck, and the knowledge required to guarantee that luck. you’ve got a 50/50 chance to win or lose. You’re not gonna read this and then suddenly you’ll magically start winning, even the best on Verdict place at the bottom 60% too. To make matters worse, these steps that I have written down contradict each other all the time. My final word of advice is to go with your gut, sounds cheesy but it helped me rank up quickly. Oh yeah and DON’T FORGET TO SCORE EVERY ROUND TO GET MORE XP. Doesn’t matter if you’re not watching the Fight Card or not, you’re missing out on free 1500 XP if you don’t. In reality, making picks doesn’t take too much time as reading my guide so don’t worry about that. CHAPTER I: BETTING ODDS DISCLAIMER: Verdict is basically gambling on fights with no money and simpler steps, but it runs on the same rules as betting. Don’t try to gamble after what I teach you because I’ve never bet actual money on fights (I only play Blackjack at the casino lol). THIS IS FOR VERDICT ONLY, so don’t come cryin’ to me that you went to Vegas with the boys after reading my guides and now you live in a cardboard box ok? Alright let’s get this over with. So What Are Odds? Odds are the what determine the favored fighter (guy who is most likely gonna win) and the underdog (guy who is most likely to lose). On Verdict, odds are the little numbers that are next to the fighters’ icons and the KO, Submission, and Decision buttons when you’re making the pick. The bigger the number, the bigger the payout. But also the bigger the number, the less likely you’ll win. Fortune favors the bold my friends. Identifying the Odds On Verdict, odds are the little numbers that are next to the fighters’ icons and the KO, Submission, and Decision buttons when you’re making a pick. They will have an “x” before them like these examples: Figure A: Odds of the favorite fighter winning or the likelihood of ANY fighter winning by a victory method that is MOST likely to happen can look like this: x1.60 x2.60 (This can also mean the higher likelihood it is for ANY fighter to win by a winning method that they’re good at) x3.40 (If the Underdog is a good fighter, it’ll go up higher but the Underdog is always the highest number) Figure B: Odds of the Underdog winning or ANY fighter winning by a victory method that is LEAST likely to happen can look like this: x8.70 x10.45 x22.30 (If the underdog REALLY sucks or if a favorite OR underdog rarely uses one of the victory methods) NOTE: Remember that every favorite fighter and underdog have different outcomes than the other that favor them, they’re not gonna be the same in any categories, that’s why we call them odds. CONCLUDING REMARKS: Remember: the bigger the number, the bigger the payout. This is why you shouldn’t be scared of going for the underdog on Verdict, be lucky that you’re not gonna be losing money if it doesn’t hit. In all honesty, you don’t have to get all three correct to win big. The round you picked is always gonna give you 100 XP, worry about the fighter and how your chosen fighter will win, that’s enough for you to get a belt or in the top 25%. Very rarely do people get all three correct, but if it does it’ll boost your wins a TON. CHAPTER II: XP BOOSTS 101 PART I XP = Fake Money As I said before, Verdict is basically gambling without money. So what does Verdict have as its replacement? XP. In gambling, you have put in some of your own money to win money, but if you wanna win more money, you gotta put in even more of your own money. Sound familiar? If not, just reread that sentence and replace the word ‘money’ with ‘XP’, get it now? The XP Slider The amount of XP you want to put into a fight is dictated by the XP Slider, which is below the odds icon. Understanding how to use the XP Slider is how you win massively after successfully picking a fight. After you pick a fighter and a winning method, slide that XP button to wherever your little heart desires. But if only it were that easy. XP Boosts Examples By the ICK’s Top Ten: Here are some great examples of successful uses of XP Boosts from my Iron Crotch Kickers League on our Leaderboard for Taira VS Park. These are some of the tactics used by 3 of the ICK’s Top 10 Winners. I’m not gonna name anyone or put what ranking they placed in because someone’s probably gonna get butthurt and whine about it. And I’m XP boosting all the way to 600xp that it’ll happen if I go through with that. These visual guides will look like the two rows below, just imagine the chosen fighter’s face next to the numbers: 100xp Win 2037xp 450xp Lose 0xp The first number is the amount of XP a player boosted or didn’t boost, the words win or lose are obvious, and the last number is how many XP the player won. 0 XP means they lost by picking the wrong fighter. DISCLAIMER: Please note that there are TONS of ways to XP boost. These are just examples, not the only ways that you should XP boost. Most of us learned all of this on our own, and we chose what strategies worked best for us. Don’t be afraid to make a new XP boost strategy alone. If it works, it works. Now let’s look at the stats. Player 1: 100xp Win 115xp 200xp Lose 0xp 200xp Lose 0xp 200xp Win 792xp 200xp Win 2456xp 200xp Lose 0xp Player 2: 100xp Win 115xp 100xp Win 192xp 100xp Win 350xp 300xp Win 1188xp 100xp Lose 0xp 400xp Win 504xp Player 3: 100xp Win 115xp 100xp Win 2304xp 100xp Win 350xp 600xp Win 2376xp 100xp Lose 0xp 100xp Win 126xp CONCLUDING REMARKS: So this is what a decent pick should look like. All you need is at least one big win to get some momentum and your chance to be top 10% or 25% will skyrocket. The more XP you get on a leaderboard, the closer you get to being #1 in an event. CHAPTER III: XP BOOSTS 101 PART II NOTE: You need to read the newly added paragraphs at the bottom of each pick example. Continuing from Part I, here’s the same examples of XP Boost Strategies courtesy of my boys at my Iron Crotch Kickers League. Player 1: The Loaded Bases Strategy 100xp Win 115xp 200xp Lose 0xp 200xp Lose 0xp 200xp Win 792xp 200xp Win 2456xp 200xp Lose 0xp The Loaded Bases Strategy: PLAY-BY-PLAY: As the name suggests, the Loaded Bases Strategy is when you place an XP boost on every fight on your picks for a card. Sometimes you get less fighters to have them evenly placed but it still counts. PROS: Evenly spaced XP means you have a better guarantee to win at least more than one XP Boosted pick, you also don’t have to worry about one incorrect pick since you don’t max out on one or two picks. CONS: Because every pick is evenly spaced, don’t expect to win big, unless it’s a massive underdog pick in which Player 1 achieved on his next-to-last pick. However, the more XP distributed, the less XP you will win. It’s still a decent strategy, even though I don’t particularly use it. Player 2: The 75-25 Strategy 100xp Win 115xp 100xp Win 192xp 100xp Win 350xp 200xp Win 1188xp 100xp Lose 0xp 400xp Win 504xp The 75-25 Strategy: PLAY-BY-PLAY: This is when you put XP boosts on only two picks. As you can see, Player 2 boosted his XP on only two fights, boosted by 400xp and 300 XP, respectively. I always go for that tactic if I am extremely unconfident about my picks (despite us players who are skilled, even we have second thoughts). PROS: It does an excellent job of equally balancing both, raising the likelihood of winning and the chance to win big, think of it as insurance. You can win a ton of XP even if you miss one of the two boosted picks. The 75/25 is also the reason why I ranked up to purple belt so fast. The best pick I ever got was betting on Tuco to beat Tafa in Lewis vs. Texiera on the same amount of XP as Player 2. I ended up getting my first top 10% belt and 14776 XP. I went from Blue Belt to Blue Belt third stripe on that pick ALONE. CONS: Even though you have more chances to win big, you still have more chances to lose XP. For example, placing XP on 2 fights out of 6 doesn’t guarantee a win. Also you may miss out on winning more XP if you split XP, which brings us to the final commonly used strategy. Player 3: The Hail Mary Strategy 100xp Win 115xp 100xp Win 2304xp 100xp Win 350xp 600xp Win 2376xp 100xp Lose 0xp 100xp Win 126xp The Hail Mary Strategy: PLAY-BY-PLAY: I’ve saved the best for last. And now for everybody’s favorite strategy, the Hail Mary. The Hail Mary Strategy is a simple yet effective tactic. All you have to do is put your entire 600 XP into one pick, and that’s it. I can name so many Verdict users who use this strategy off the top of my head. Guys like Ruffner, Durinho The Great, DJMightyMouse fan, Shimbcity, Jordan Leavitt Fan, and yours truly use this method. Player 3’s 600xp boost pick on only one fight. It's a classic Hail Mary. There is no other example of what Hail Mary should look like and no substitutes. PROS: The Hail Mary is extremely popular because this strategy is the only way you can win the most XP in a single fight pick. If you XP boost an underdog pick like that and get at least 2 predictions right in that single pick, you’ll level up in SECONDS, not to mention it’ll place you in the top 10 or 25 percent. There is not a single strategy that can win you more XP on one fight than the Hail Mary. CONS: Since you’ve boosted on one fight, you’ve got only one shot to get a boosted win. This also means you have a lot less possibilities to get an XP boosted win. Another issue with the Hail Mary is that you no longer have any insurance to protect your placement in the top percentiles. COUNTERING STRATEGIC FLAWS: Believe it or not, my way of doing this applies to any strategy you can think of. The process is simple; all you have to do is make a few non-XP boosted picks that favor the underdog. That’s it. As you can see in Player 3’s second pick, he won 2304 XP just from an unboosted pick. Why? Because he bet on the underdog. Going for a few underdogs is the best insurance you can get during fights. Always remember that betting knowledge and strategies always contradict themselves. The solution? Just use that to your advantage. CHAPTER IV: FIGHTER HISTORY INTRODUCTION: As I said many times before, a fighter’s wins and losses won’t help you make an educated guess if you don’t study the toughness of their past opponents. This also applies to MMA promotions in which they have formerly competed. Contrary to what filthy casuals believe, UFC is not the only MMA organization in the world, and it’s not like the UFC picks guys off the street and throws them in the octagon (even though that’s exactly what they did when it was still in its formative years during the early 90s). For every profession, not just in professional fighting, you’ve gotta have some experience as an amateur before you go pro. Why should we give a f***? A professional MMA fighter’s journey to becoming a part of elite MMA organizations tells a story of their hard-fought (or easily fought) road to stardom. This is how you can truly know whether or not they’re the real deal or a can crusher. I will give you the tools to determine this by looking at the reputation and competitive nature of past MMA organizations that UFC/PFL fighters once competed in. The more you know, the better you’ll be at picking your winner. What’s a can crusher? A can crusher is a fighter who gets most of his wins from beating up terrible fighters, but the moment he goes in with a good fighter, he gets washed like my judo gi after a hard day of cardio. However, due to the brutal differences in skill among MMA leagues worldwide, a can crusher is also a very successful fighter at a lower level promotion to the point that they become undefeated or a champion. But then, sadly, he gets destroyed once he gets into a more high-profile organization, like former Bellator Champions Patchy Mix and Pitbull Patricio (I don’t care if Pitbull beat Dan Ige, it was a boring fight). This term is very essential to know. THE RUN-DOWN: This will be a reference guide of MMA organizations that I have commonly seen fighters compete in before going to the UFC or PFL whenever I make picks, so I’m only focusing on that. Because of this, IT IS NOT A TIER LIST. Not gonna lie, this isn’t my strongest spot. I even had to do some research beforehand, so bear with me. For the love of God, please mention other promotions in the comments I’ve missed so I can add them to the second revision of my complete guide. (Also note that Verdict mentions some of these promotions, but not all of them are on this list.) Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) A U.S.-based organization created in my home state of Texas in 2017, the LFA is one of the most respected leagues with a goal different from that of the UFC, but it also benefits the UFC. LFA is an organization centered on refining its fighters by experience, technique, and preparation before they get to the big leagues. As you can imagine, it’s every man for themselves, and the fighters’ desperation to fight amongst the elite results in heated, action-packed dogfights among young and ambitious athletes. Because of this, the UFC uses the LFA as a talent pool to give potential fighters contracts with their organization. Cage Warriors A decorated MMA organization from London, formed in 2001, is one of Europe's most prominent MMA Promotions. This league is jam-packed with fighters with explosive striking power and great grappling. Its famous Alumni include retired UFC champion and commentator Michael Bisping, Paddy Pimblett, and double champ Conor McGregor. Due to its fantastic track record, it is an excellent talent farm that the UFC continues to use. RIZIN Fight Federation (RIZIN FF) The successor of the legendary Pride FC organization, this Japanese organization prides itself on bringing out the best fighters in its homeland and elite prospects from Eastern Europe and Asia. Notable alumni currently in the UFC are Jiri Prochazka, Kai Asakura, and Manel Kape. All three were RIZIN champions. KSW (Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki) (It’s in Polish, its English translation is Martial Arts Confrontation) Created in Poland in 2004, has become Europe’s number one MMA promotion, luring out the best of what the continent offers. Like LFA and Cage Warriors, the pride of Polish MMA is a pathway to the UFC, as it also produces future UFC fighters. KSW boasts numerous alumni who have gone on to fight in the UFC, such as Jan Blachowicz and Mateusz Gamrot. Absolute Championship Akhmat (ACA) Established in 2014 in Grozny, Russia, the ACA has quickly gained a name for itself due to elite-level brawls and producing some of the finest UFC prospects Eastern Europe and other parts of the globe have to offer, notably Dagestan. Yes, if you’re a die-hard Islam or Khamzat hater, this organization is one of the ones responsible for nurturing and bringing Dagestan-based grapplers into the big leagues like the UFC and PFL. Since typing the names of ACA’s notable fighters will make my fingers bleed, I’m gonna copy and paste them from one of the articles I researched. I do not care. Prominent alums from ACA include Muslim Magomedov, Magomedrasul Gasanov, Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov, and Abdul-Aziz Abdulvakhabov. ONE Championship If you asked me which MMA organization rules the world, I’d give you the same answer every time. So it’s like this: the UFC runs the west and ONE controls the east, a classic 50/50, and anyone who tells me otherwise is better off watching powerslap or watching nina drama reels for 5 hours straight. ONE Championship is a talented promotion based in Singapore. ONE is holding on to Asia’s MMA industry like a nasty D’arce choke right now. However, its claim to fame is unique compared to rival MMA organizations like UFC and PFL. ONE gained the moniker of “The Home of Martial Arts” not just because it holds MMA fights; it boasts three additional martial arts attractions: Kickboxing, Muay Thai, and BJJ, because ONE has four martial arts competitions being filmed live. It boasts a variety of elite fighters who are more than just experts in their respective martial arts disciplines. Notable ONE fighters who have competed in the UFC at some point include the GOAT and, in my opinion, the greatest MMA fighter of all time, Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, and Mikey “Darth Rigatoni” Musumeci, UFC BJJ’s first-ever bantamweight champion. CONCLUDING REMARKS: Like I said, this isn’t a tier list; it’s a reference guide for comparing and contrasting fighters making their debut in the UFC or PFL. I didn’t mention Dana White’s The Contender Series (DWCS) or The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) since the UFC still owns them, but those are GREAT references to favor up-and-coming fighters if you’re unsure of the odds. So always remember: you have a choice to study a fighter’s history or get played by the hype. CONCLUSION OF THE TEXMEX GUIDE: So yeah, this is the second revision of my complete fight picks guide. I'm sorry it’s long, but that’s the ENTIRE guide. Once again thank you all and I hope this serves you well. Oh, and if ANY white belt casual or whatever lazy bum comments that this entire guide is AI, PLEASE go and make a guide better than mine. I’m begging for you to embarrass yourself. The only thing AI is the picture lmao. Again thank you guys and hopefully this will serve you well.