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Ortega vs. Sterling Pre…
Ortega vs. Sterling Prediction
By TairaSZN_
Ortega vs. Sterling Prediction
Brian Ortega🇺🇸 (16-4) uses his striking to close distance, stop opponents momentum, or open up opportunities to shoot takedowns and jump submissions. He's low volume on the feet but makes up for it with well-timed and accurate shot selection in counters and combinations that include sneakily powerful jabs, crosses, hooks, uppercuts, elbows. Outside of combos, he uses his hands and front kicks to target the body and fill in the gaps where there could be 0 activity from him. Defensively he is known to rely too much on his durability but has slightly improved his head movement over time which has helped when he is pressured on the feet, he can tie up opponents, initiating the clinch where he then uses knees and elbows. To get it to the mat, he can once again initiate the clinch where he gets collar ties and underhooks to be able to trip or drag opponents to the ground. Once down, one of Brian's biggest flaws is apparent because instead of securing top control, he agreesively pursues submissions, which can cause him to slow quickly and allow fighters to escape and return to their feet quick. Surviving his submission attempts isn't easy though, if you reverse him off of top position he's amazing in scrambles and if you get him on his back he's more than comfortable working off his back to show his opponents why he's the triangle choke master. Even at that point, if he doesn't succeed, he doesn't mind abandoning on submission to chase another, I really think he has the most polished transitions in featherweight history. Defensively, I think the biggest problem arises. If you are a great grappler yourself and can negate his threat with wrestling, you have a clear path to victory. Aljamain Sterling🇺🇸 (24-5) closes distance using his good feints, stance switches from orthodox to southpaw, and repeated level changes to keep opponents off target and at a high pace establishes his long step in jab to create openings for his high volume combinations that include well timed and accurate straight rights, straight lefts from southpaw, hooks, spinning back fists, front kicks to the body, teeps, and low kicks. He can also initiate the clinch where he'll tie up and throw elbows to the head and knees to the body, when he shoots he also has a good habit of wearing on opponents with knees to the legs or body which I like. I will point out Aljo loops or overextends on his hooks, which has and could again lead to him being caught. Regardless, similar to Ortega, he is still a grappler who uses his standup to dictate what range the fight takes place in, but better than Brian. I think he uses it to set up takedowns more effectively. Off of jabs or low kicks, Aljo shoots great powerful single and double leg takedowns that he can chain together using his elite transitions. From the clinch, he can also pick up and drag opponents to the ground or use more technical body locks. Aljo stays low for his takedowns entries, so if they fail, he isn't as open to strikes, which I really like. Once down, he has great control, acquiring half guard or full mount and throws ground & pound so he can be safer when looking to transition to the back for a rear naked choke. He also has great scrambles. During exchanges, he can attack front chokes, and when they defend and leave out a limb, he can attack armbars, arm triangles, or kimuras. Against fellow grapplers, Aljo can chain together submission attempts from back control to keep opponents down rather than just his wrestling as well, aka the backpack, which could be useful in this bout. Defensively, Aljo staying low also benefits him because his already good sprawl/hip pressure gets boosted and makes it in my opinion almost impossible for Ortega to traditionally take him down becuase he doesn't have a great wrestling base already. Your next thought would be, "So Brian has to get him down from the clinch?" And you would be right, but Aljo also has good defense in that area as well. This would be interesting to watch because in this position both would be looking to take each other down, Aljo doesn't just defend using hip control he looks to reverse and get guys down himself, aka Brian's most likely path to initiate his grappling could be used against him. My pick is Sterling (DEC). I think Aljo is going to display a pretty dominant version of himself with the wrestling and the clinch, but he needs to stay aware on the feet at all times.
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