Now I already know I’m gonna get lots of hate on this and that’s fine, but at least read what I’m about to say and break down. Let’s start off with saying that ilia realistically should beat everyone at 155. People are saying that arman is the biggest threat for him at 55. But i disagree. I think it’s paddy. People will think im biased and maybe i am a bit, but when you read this breakdown maybe you’ll see things in another perspective. How do you beat ilia topuria? As we all know ilia is 17-0 and it seems impossible to beat him, but the best chance to beat him is by, leg kicks (especially calf kicks) due to ilia’s boxing heavy stance he’s very susceptible to leg kicks and in a boxing stance you put all your weight on the lead leg. Calf kicks are great for this when someone puts all weight on their lead leg. Strength/size. To beat ilia at 155 you have to be bigger and stronger which lots of guys are but there’s not a lot of lightweights as big or strong as paddy pimblett. Nr3 be unpredictable. Don’t fight skill for skill and a techinchal battle with ilia, because you will lose. You have to be unorthodox and mix everything up. That’s the only possible ways to beat ilia. Let’s move on to paddy pimblett. Paddy is a great fighter who’s proven to be very unorthodox with decent striking. People always doubt him but he proves everyone wrong. And he’s got lots of confidence, just like ilia topuria. In paddy’s fight with Michael Chandler paddy utilised the calf kicks due to Chandler’s lead leg heavy stance this made chandlers leg absolutely beat up and stopped him from being as explosive. In that fight paddy also uses his size and strength, despite being taken down a few times he immediately got up which tired Chandler out who kept using loads of energy, this led to paddy in round 2 taking Chandler down getting on top and out muscling him. In round 3 paddy has realised chandlers pattern of always ducking down when he walks in to load up his big right hand. Paddy notices chandlers duck down and times a perfect knee that splits Chandler wide open, eventually leading to a finish. This fight proved paddy’s fight IQ and striking. Despite keeping his chin high his defence proved to have gotten better. Let’s now get on to the ilia paddy scenario. Even tho ilia should win this it’s not as one sided as people think. Let’s start off with saying if anyone can take ilias shots and still stand it’s paddy, he’s got a granite chin. Now in ilias fights he always moves his head, although he’s got a noticeable pattern of moving to the side, down and then the other side. So a slip, duck, slip. In his fight vs jai Herbert, Herbert noticed this and timed a beautiful knee landing flush. We saw paddy do the same thing against Chandler and it’s something ilia always does so if paddy can get the right timing he can catch him. Then we come to ilias toughest fights. It’s been vs Holloway, volk and Herbert. I won’t include zalal for this one. All 3 of those like to strike long in the outside (max wanted to fight long vs ilia) and they were all ilias toughest fights. Ilia swings a lot and sometimes has a hard time getting to people, if it goes late we don’t know the gas tank of ilia and how it’ll hold up. Then as I mentioned ilia is heavy on the lead leg, paddy destroyed chandlers leg with it when he was lead leg heavy and it’s one of if not paddy’s best weapon on the feet. If paddy can use that and land it which he most certainly will, he’ll slow down ilias movement. Then we get to the physical part, paddy is much bigger and stronger than ilia. If paddy can put ilia again the cage, work him and get him down. Ilia will be tired from defending so much against a much bigger man. Paddy is 5’11 and a huge lightweight as we know. All the keys to potentially being the only way to beat ilia, paddy has. That’s why I think he’ll be a real challenge for ilia. Paddy has a great team who studies a lot and we saw that vs Chandler where everything was perfect. I’m not trying to say Chandler is on ilia’s level but they have a lot of similarities (heavy lead leg, pressure boxers, good wrestling base, lots of power) so realistically should paddy win? No. Does he have a better chance than what people say? Yes. Ofc ilia could go out there and sleep him in one but I think people are underestimating paddy for this one due to his size and not realising his skill set is very good.