2023 PFL Championship Predictions

2023 PFL Championship Predictions

Douglas Vegas Bets|
November 23, 2023|

The championship fights are finally here as we prepare for the grand finale of a tremendous PFL season with a stacked card with a mix of title and showcase fights to watch. I went over the card and gave my predictions and best bets for each fight, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 11/23/2023 7:00 AM EST

Clay Collard +200 vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier -294

The headliner for this card is the highly anticipated Lightweight championship. Clay Collard is an extremely high-volume puncher with tremendous boxing, although he has taken a lot of damage to the lead leg this season, which is hard to ignore entering a tough five-round fight. Olivier Aubin-Mercier has dominated since coming to the PFL and is still only getting better, with finishes in three of his last four wins, including last year's championship against Stevie Ray.

This will be a wild fight where Collard will put the pace on early, but if Aubin-Mercier can survive, he will have a chance to take over down the stretch.

Pick: Aubin-Mercier O/U: Over 4.5 -135


Renan Ferreira +190 vs. Denis Goltsov -297

The Heavyweight championship will be on the line as these two big-time finishers go head to head. Renan Ferreira is an athletic and massive guy, even for a Heavyweight, and with that comes big punching power, although he has struggled when facing a grappler before. Denis Goltsov has dominated this season with three finishes in round one, coming by a mix of knockouts and submission, showing his well-rounded game on the road to this title opportunity.

This is a dangerous fight, but I see Goltsov as the rightful favorite with his more well-rounded game and Ferreira's inconsistency.

Pick: Goltsov O/U: Under 1.5 -185

Larissa Pacheco -1111 vs. Marina Mokhnatkina +500

The Featherweight championship on the line here as we see a champion from last year look to claim a new weight class. Larissa Pacheco enters this off of two knockout wins that took her less than a minute combined; she is a powerful puncher with no real holes in her game. Marina Mokhnatkina earns a championship opportunity here after a strong season where she finished two of her three fights, including a first-round submission in the semi-finals to show her dangerous submission attack.

I see Pacheco getting another early knockout finish here and claiming her second title in two years.

Pick: Pacheco O/U: Under 1.5 +140


Magomed Magomedkerimov -175 vs. Sadibou Sy +126

This is a Welterweight rematch with much more on the line than the first meeting, as this will be for the million-dollar championship. Magomed Magomederimov has been incredible in the PFL, winning a championship with his well-rounded game and now showing a further evolved striking game with two knockouts this season. Sadibou Sy has not lost since the last meeting between these two, having evolved his game to be better defensively and finishing fights with his dangerous kickboxing style.

I'll take Magomedkerimov here, as although Sy has improved his wrestling, I'm not sure he has done enough to close the gap between the two here.

Pick: Magomedkerimov O/U: Over 4.5 -185

Impa Kasanganay -204 vs. Josh Silveira +144

Two fighters who go for the finish will battle for the Light Heavyweight championship. Impa Kasanganay burst onto the PFL scene with three impressive wins this season, showing a complete game in the process. Josh Silveira is a dangerous finisher with three first-round wins in his last three fights; he has both submission and knockout capabilities early in the fight.

I lean with Silveira as the underdog here as I give him the finishing edge in this close matchup.

Pick: Silveira O/U: Under 2.5 -108


Kayla Harrison -1250 vs. Aspen Ladd +540

This is a Featherweight matchup between two of the PFL's most prominent names as they go head to head in this featured bout. Kayla Harrison returns here after her first career loss to Larissa Pacheco at the end of last season; she has had a dominant wrestling game, although she has never faced much tough competition and is moving down in weight here. Aspen Ladd stepped in here and looks to establish herself as a threat in the PFL; she competed at the top of the UFC and showed bursts of real top-level potential and finishing ability.

I'll take Ladd at these odds, as I don't see Harrison as worth this price against any decent competition, and Ladd is certainly not a bad fighter.

Pick: Ladd O/U: Over 2.5 -135

Ray Cooper III -208 vs. Derek Brunson +148

This Middleweight bout features a former champion up against a newcomer to the organization. Ray Cooper III is a hard-hitting former champion who moves up from his usual weight here, which could help him as he has had some trouble on the scales. Derek Brunson looks to be in great shape for his first post-UFC fight; he is a standout wrestler with an awkward standup and questionable durability.

I know former UFC fighters have yet to have much success debuting in PFL, but I like Brunson as the underdog here as I see him having a clear path with his wrestling.

Pick: Brunson O/U: Over 1.5 -147


Jesus Pinedo -119 vs. Gabriel Alves Braga -115

Rematch here for the Featherweight championship. Jesus Pinedo got here with two massive upset wins in which he knocked out last year's champion, Brendan Loughnane, and top-seeded Bubba Jenkins. Gabriel Alves Braga is still undefeated entering this one, having won two split decisions this season to keep that record; he is a solid striker who is comfortable going the distance in his fights.

I like Pinedo in this one, as I see him being the cleaner striker with more power in his strikes and taking a decision with more clarity this time.

Pick: Pinedo O/U: Over 3.5 -147

Bubba Jenkins -189 vs. Chris Wade +134

A Featherweight rivalry will write its next chapter here as these two matchup for a third time, each holding a victory over the other. Bubba Jenkins is a very strong wrestler with good top control and an improved striking game, although it is still not his preferred place to fight. Chris Wade just barely missed out on getting to the championship, losing a split decision to Gabriel Alves Braga, his game is well-rounded, and he is very aggressive.

I'll pick Jenkins here as last time he looked levels ahead in the wrestling game, and if Wade can't keep Bubba off of him, he is going to be in for a long night.

Pick: Jenkins O/U: Over 2.5 -263

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