UFC 275 Betting Preview

UFC 275 Betting Preview

By Douglas Vegas Bets
Friday, June 10th 2022, 1:29AM, 2 months ago

The UFC gives us some great PPV action this week from Singapore, headlined by two title fights featuring Glover Teixeira (+175) and Jiri Prochazka (-204) in the Lightheavyweight main event and Valentina Shevchenko (-556) taking on Taila Santos (+450) in our Flyweight Co-Main. This is a deep card with lots of close fights that provide good betting oppourtunities to examine so lets look at these matchups.

All Odds Provided By Stake.com Accurate as of 6/8/2022 8:00 PM EST

Glover Teixeira +175 Jiri Prochazka -204

What a great matchup at Lightheavyweight with a solidified, well-rounded veteran in the champ Teixeira going up against a terrifying man to stand across from in Prochazka in a fight that everyone, including the bookies, knows isn't going to last long. The challenger is Jiri Prochazka, who has made a name for himself with his wild style that naturally leads to insane fights as he eats shots with no fear and if he can stand, you can bet he is moving forwards throwing massive power. Glover Teixeira has been a bettor's dream, cashing at near even and underdog prices in each of his last six fights, and here he is again at plus money; however, we must evaluate this fight on its own rather than get caught up in Glover's improbable streak, and in this fight, he is at every physical disadvantage. He will need to implement a grappling heavy gameplan to slow the pressure coming his way or it will be a bad night for the champ.

I look at this fight, and despite the recent success of Glover in this role, I am confident in playing Prochazka as he is the most dangerous high-level striker Teixeira has fought on this run and I believe his pressure and power will be too much for Glover at this stage in his career.

Pick: Prochazka ML O/U: Under 1.5 -105

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Valentina Shevchenko -556 Taila Santos +460

In this one, we get Valentina Shevchenko taking her usual place as a big favorite, although not quite as large as other recent fights, because Taila Santos is the most exciting competition she has had in a while. Shevchenko is a fighter that is complicated to find a path to victory against as she is so well-rounded, but in this matchup, I believe she is best suited to use her counter striking and avoid grappling exchanges. Santos has quite a task in front of her very early in her career, with her only having one win over a ranked opponent before earning this title shot.

While I expect Santos to be more challenging than some past opponents have been for Valentina, this feels too soon for her. I also think that this one will go the distance as both women are very high level and should respect each other skills. It is impossible to get value out of Valentina straight, so I will take a chance on Santos to survive and take Shevchenko by decision at -106.

Pick: Shevchenko ML O/U: Over 3.5 -175

Weili Zhang -167 Joanna Jedrzejczyk +147

Here we have the much-anticipated rematch from a 2020 classic; however, this time, there is not a belt on the line but the chance to get a shot at newly crowned champ Carla Esparza. Weili was able to get a close decision in the first fight as a near -200 favorite, and the line has thinned out for the rematch; I see very little reason for this as I feel Weili is coming off a strong performance against Namajunas in that rematch showing improvements as a martial artist making me think that at -167 we may be getting a better Weili than we got at -200. Joanna has not fought since their first fight, and although she has fought strong off a layoff before, it is a factor that is certainly not in her favor in a fight where every advantage is vital.

I believe that Weili is the one who has more to improve on from their first fight and will show the improvements to win this fight on the scorecards. I am even more confident that this will again go the distance as we have seen these two go five-round this time; we only need three.

Pick: Zhang ML O/U: Over 2.5 -303

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Rogerio Bontorin +210 Manel Kape -244

Here we get a good matchup in the deep Flyweight division with the fast-rising Manel Kape getting another tough test against a strong grappler in Bontorin. Bontorin is one of the best grapplers at Flyweight, which gives him a path to victory against the top-tier strikers in the division like Kape. Manel Kape has shown his explosiveness in his last few fights after a rocky UFC start, but I do not believe he is worth being this size a favorite over a fighter with a clear grappling advantage.

This is a good price to take Bontorin; in my eyes, if he can implement his game plan, he could take complete control of this fight.

Pick: Bontorin ML O/U: Over 2.5 +105

Jack Della Maddalena -156 Ramazan Emeev +138

Here we get a pretty good striker vs. grappler matchup, which is always a fun dynamic. Maddalena is an outstanding boxer who fights with a lot of pace and pressure, which has resulted in him stopping many of his opponents. Emeev will be looking to get this fight to the ground and will need tremendous success there to win the fight as he is at a clear disadvantage in the striking.

I see Maddalena's striking advantage as a bigger problem than Emeevs grappling, so I will take Maddalena to win this fight altough im not eager to bet him as I think this one will be close.

Pick: Maddalena ML O/U: Over 2.5 -217

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Brendan Allen -294 Jacob Malkoun +250

I like Brendan Allen in this spot as I believe he is better everywhere than Malkoun. Allen has impressed me a lot with his skill set as his striking is clean, but it has been his grappling in the past that has led him to many victories. Malkoun can grind out wins over anyone who doesn't show up prepared as he has a great gas tank and is good at making fights ugly with clinches on the fence, but his striking leaves much to be desired.

I do not see Malkoun having any success in this fight as he will need to control Allen to win, and I believe he is outmatched in the grappling department. It is a steep price on Allen now; however, it is tough to bet his props as he could win this fight in many ways.

Pick: Allen ML O/U: Over 2.5 +107

Seung Woo Choi -250 Joshua Culibao +215

This one should be fun as both guys are sure to bring it in this Featherweight matchup. Choi comes in as a pretty big favorite, and I see why as I give him advantages in most areas of this fight. Culibao has a lot of pre UFC finishes but has yet to get one in the octagon, although he has proven he can go three tough rounds.

I will pick Choi here, but I am not going to bet this one as the line is a bit wide for my liking. One play I did consider was the over 2.5 however there is going to be too much action for me to trust my money there.

Pick: Choi ML O/U: Over 2.5 -132

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Hayisaer Maheshate +150 Steve Garcia -169

Here we get the debut of a very young Maheshate who is only 22 years old, coming off of Dana White's Contender Series. Maheshate has shown to be a good striker, but he has a lot to prove about his overall skill set and how he matches up against higher-level competition before I could bet on him. Garcia has good experience against tough competition, and I expect him to be a level above Maheshate on fight night as he should have advantages everywhere.

I believe Garcia will get the win here, but the price is not good enough for me to make a play on him, and it has only risen throughout the week.

Pick: Garcia ML O/U: Under 2.5 -185

Jake Matthews +138 Andre Fialho -156

Another week another Fialho fight as he continues his very active 2020 against another tough test in Matthews. Fialho has power and has made a name for himself with it earning several highlight knockouts in his last few fight; however, he has shown defensive flaws in the stand-up and on the ground, leaving questions about his overall skillset. Matthews comes into this one with a lot more experience against high-level competition, which I think will favor him well here as he will be able to identify his path to victory.

I understand the danger of betting against someone as powerful as Fialho. Still, I feel Matthews is the better fighter and should not be an underdog, as some line movement has also indicated. His most likely path to victory is via decision, but I am willing to bet him straight as I would not be shocked if we saw a finish from him.

Pick: Matthews ML O/U: Over 2.5 +103

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Kyung Ho Kang +118 Batgerel Danaa -133

This is a good matchup here as we see Danaa get a quick turnaround against a solid veteran in Kang. Kang has been around the UFC for a while and has proven a tough out for most with a solid grappling game. Danaa has serious power, but when put against an opponent who was challenging to finish in his last fight, he lost, showing he may have trouble if this fight gets past the first round.

I like Kang here for the simple reason that I don't see Danaa finishing him, which has proven his only path to victory at this level. Kang at plus money straight is good enough for me as he could win this fight on the scorecards or find a submission late.

Pick: Kang ML +118 O/U: Over -133

Silvana Gomez Juarez -141 Na Liang +124

Here we get a fight at Strawweight where both women have had their struggles in the UFC thus far and are looking to turn it around. Gomez Juarez is coming off back-to-back armbar losses, the latest of which was tough as it seemed she was on her way to finishing the fight herself. Liang is coming off a long layoff after her tough UFC debut; however, she has shown finishing ability in her pre UFC fights.

This one is tough to pick, but I will lean with the underdog; as if this fight is on the ground at all, a submission is in play for her, however, if this one stays standing for too long, Gomez Juarez could score a knockout, so I will avoid betting a side.

Pick: Liang ML O/U: Under 1.5 -102

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Joselyne Edwards -161 Ramona Pascual +143

Here we get a rare Women's Featherweight bout to start the night, with Edwards coming in a decent favorite. Edwards will need to keep this one standing as she has a clear striking advantage; however, she has been taken down and controlled before. Pascual has decent wrestling, which may be enough to win her this matchup, but that is all she has, and if she can't control Edwards for at least two rounds, she will lose.

Edwards is a justified favorite as it will be on Pascual to get the takedowns and control enough to win, which I do not see happening. That being said, this price is too much for me to lay on a fight at this level, so no bet from me here.

Pick: Edwards ML O/U: Over 2.5 -222

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

ML: Brendan Allen -294 (Best Bet) Jake Mattews +138 Kyung Ho Kang +118

O/U: Zhang Jedrzejczyk Over 2.5 -303

Props: Prochazka by KO/TKO -133 Shevnchenko by Decision -106 Weili Zhang by Decision +132

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