UFC Fight Night Kattar vs. Allen Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night Kattar vs. Allen Odds Breakdown

By Douglas Vegas Bets
Friday, October 28th 2022, 9:23PM, about 1 month ago

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an incredible matchup between two of the best names in the Featherweight division as Calvin Kattar -108 enters his third main event of the year against the undefeated Arnold Allen -119. This card also features some other great matchups, such as what should be a kickboxing showcase between Dustin Jacoby -185 and Khalil Rountree +144.

All Odds Provided by Stake.com accurate as of 7:00 AM EST 10/28/2022

Calvin Kattar -108 vs. Arnold Allen -119

This fantastic main event features two top contenders looking to continue their push to the division's top. Calvin Kattar is known for his clean boxing, but he has also shown that he is very aware of his opponent's skillset, as he used wrestling against Giga Chikadze and was very cautious against Josh Emmett. Arnold Allen has been quietly dominating at every turn on his rise, showing quick hands and an ability to mix in grappling effectively.

This is a very close fight, as the odds indicate, although I disagree with the movement towards Allen as I think Kattar is much more proven and should be at a steeper price.

Pick: Kattar O/U: Over 4.5 -154

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Tim Means +149 vs. Max Griffin -192

Here we get a matchup between tough veterans at Welterweight in our co-main event. Tim Means is coming off a tough loss to Kevin Holland, but he earned that opportunity by winning three straight. Max Griffin is also coming off a loss in which Neil Magny came back after being hurt to steal a decision, but Max showed what we knew him to be in that fight which is a good striker who can hang with the ranked fighters in the division.

I like Griffin here, and I think he wins by knockout, as we saw Means hurt badly by Holland, and Griffin also has serious power.

Pick: Griffin O/U: Under 2.5 +128

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -204 vs. Jared Vanderaa +155

After a week with no Heavyweight action, we see a good match here. Cortes-Acosta is making his UFC debut here as an undefeated power puncher with some boxing experience. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak, and it has not looked good.

Despite the losses, I still believe Vanderaa has the skills to win this fight, and if I had to bet a side, I would take him over betting a steep favorite in their debut at Heavyweight, but I don't have to bet this fight, so I won't.

Pick: Vanderaa O/U: Over 1.5 -145

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Tresean Gore +133 vs. Josh Fremd -172

Here we see some excellent matchmaking at Middleweight. Tresean Gore is very inexperienced and a huge question mark in general, as despite fighting a wrestler his last time out, he was finished before many grappling exchanges. Josh Fremd has shown a well-rounded skillset and looks ready to take on proper UFC competition.

I like Fremd in this one, as although there is a chance Gore can defend the grappling and use his power, I believe the striking is even or Fremd is better, and Fremd has a clear grappling advantage.

Pick: Fremd O/U: Under 2.5 -139

Dustin Jacoby -185 vs. Khalil Rountree +144

This matchup features two very high-level kickboxers. Dustin Jacoby is on a long win streak and has been very profitable to bet on during his win streak, which includes a first-round knockout his last time out. Khalil Rountree is known as a hit-and-miss fighter, but when he is on, he has fight-ending power and is a scary finisher to watch.

I've got Jacoby in this one as I feel he is a better martial artist in almost every way, and he has been dependable of late, unlike Rountree, who could end this fight at any moment but also has his hesitancies.

Pick: Jacoby O/U: Over 1.5 -167

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Roman Dolidze +144 vs. Phil Hawes -185

A fantastic matchup of Middleweights with something to prove. Roman Dolidze has proven he can win fights using his strong grappling and his knockout power. Phil Hawes has shown all the ability one can have, but his durability is a concern.

I'll take Hawes in this one, as he has really impressed me with many of his performances, and if he can avoid the big power shots, I expect a big win from him.

Pick: Hawes O/U: Under 2.5 -125

Andrei Arlovski +190 vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -256

Good Heavyweight scrap here deep on the card. Former champion Andrei Arlovski has extended his career with a style change that forces a pace many Heavyweights get stuck at. Rogerio de Lima has massive power. Marcos Rogerio de Lima has had his ups and downs in the UFC, but he has good power punching and a lot of experience.

I will lean toward Rogerio de Lima as he has big power, and if Arlovski gets caught, I am not sure how his durability will hold up.

Pick: Rogerio de Lima O/U: Under 2.5 +109

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Joesph Holmes +185 vs. Jun Yong Park -244

Fun fight here at Middleweight between the "Ugly Man" Joesph Holmes and "The Iron Turtle" Jun Yong Park. Joesph Holmes got a quick win his last time out with a submission in round one, although Alen Amedovski has now lost all four of his UFC fights, so that win is questionable. Jun Yong Park is a good fighter, although he lacks finishing ability, having earned all his UFC wins by decision and losing his only two losses inside the distance.

I've got Park here as I think he is a competent fighter in all aspects of martial arts, and I don't think Holmes is very high-level.

Pick: Park O/U: Over 2.5 -152

Chase Hooper -312 vs. Steve Garcia +230

Young fan-favorite Chase Hooper returns after his breakout performance last time out here. Hooper is a fantastic grappler and showed a significantly evolved standup game his last time. Steve Garcia is a solid striker with plenty of experience and a win over Ronnie Lawrence on his resume, although he has been hurt in each of his last few outings.

I like Hooper, but he is still very unproven, and this price is far too much for me to bet on him.

Pick: Hooper O/U: Under 2.5 -147

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Cody Durden +143 vs. Carlos Mota -185

Solid matchup at Flyweight here early on the card. Cody Durden has been solid since entering the UFC, having his moments, but he has also shown an evident weakness against submission in his career. Carlos Mota makes his debut here as a big puncher from LFA who has experience against current UFC fighter Charles Johnson although he lost.

I'll take Durden here, as his issues with submission defenses are unlikely to come into play, and the last time Mota faced this level of competition, he was knocked out.

Pick: Durden O/U: Under 2.5 -149

Joshua Weems +310 vs. Christian Rodriguez -435

Good fight at Bantamweight to open the card. Joshua Weems stepped up on short notice to make this fight happen, and he will also look to keep the fight short, with many of his wins coming by submission in the first two rounds. Christian Rodriguez makes his second octagon showing here after a tough debut, which he took up a weight class at Featherweight.

I've got Rodriguez, as he has the experience edge and has shown a more well-rounded game.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 1.5 -165

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Josh Fremd -172

Dustin Jacoby -185

Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen Over 4.5 -154

Max Griffin by KO +255

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