The UFC heads to San Diego, California, this weekend as former Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz +185 headlines in his hometown against a violent opponent in Marlon "Chito" Vera -238. Along with that comes the return of Lupita Godinez -345 against crafty veteran Angela Hill +250 and many other fun fights to bet on.
All Odds Provided By Stake.com Accurate as of 8/11/2022 4:15 PM EST
The main event is a striker's delight with a clash between clean and dirty boxing as Marlon "Chito" Vera looks to continue his run at Bantamweight by taking on the former champion Dominick Cruz. Marlon Vera is a tank, and by that, I mean he is durable and capable of doing a lot of damage; although he is known for his slow starts, with five rounds to work his last time out, he looked better than ever. Dominick Cruz is again active in the Bantamweight division, where he has never lost a non-title fight using his elusive striking style to leave opponents stuck across from him. He could make this fight very interesting by mixing in his wrestling which he has used effectively in the past.
This will be a close fight, but at this stage in Dominick Curz's career, I do not believe he will take Vera's shots well, and the damage will show over the fight and be the difference. I also think this fight goes the distance as I love to bet on durability, and between these two, they have only been knocked out once, and it was a questionable stoppage of Cruz against Henry Cejudo.
Pick: Marlon Vera O/U: Over 4.5 -192
The co-main event gives us a Featherweight brawl between impressive prospect David Onama and rugged veteran Nate Landwehr. David Onama is stepping up on short notice here as he looks to continue his remarkable run of finishes in which he has displayed powerful striking and solid submission skills. However, he has shown he is very hittable at times which will cost him. Nate Landwehr is as scrappy as they get and thrives in wild striking affairs, which he is likely to get.
I got an early play on David Onama at a great number; however, since then, he has exploded to an unplayable number.
Pick: David Onama O/U: Under 1.5 +122
This Strawweight matchup features the UFC debut of both Yazmin Jauregui and Iasim Lucindo. Yazmin Jauregui comes in with six finishes in her eight wins as a pro showing tremendous potential. Iasim Lacindo enters the UFC on a seven-fight win streak with four finishes showing a lot of improvement after having her struggles early in her career.
I'll take Yazmin Jauregui as she has faced higher level competition and has not lost yet and shown that weakness. With that, I am much more eager to learn from this fight than to bet on it, as I am curious how both women will fair against each other as this is a step up in competition for both women.
Pick: Yazmin Jauregui O/U: Under 2.5 +155
This Lightheavyweight fight is a fun clash of styles as gritty wrestler Devin Clark takes on flashy finisher Azmat Murzalanov. Devin Clark is a solid fighter with a wealth of experience against the highest level of competition. Azmat Murzalanov is an undefeated finisher coming off a third-round comeback finish in his UFC debut.
I will go with the underdog Clark here, as he is much more proven at this level. I was also not very impressed by the skillset that Azmat Murzalanov showed in his debut before the stoppage.
Pick: Devin Clark O/U: Over 2.5 +107
This matchup was moved to this week after Lipski had issues on the scale, and my thoughts remain the same for this battle at Flyweight. Ariane Lipski is a sharp striker who has also shown off some crafty grappling. Priscila Cachoeira is also a striker with solid power and pressure; however, she is very hittable.
I'll take Lipski here as I think she has the better striking and grappling is unlikely to come into the equation. No bet here from me, as this line is a bit wide for me to be confident in a play.
Pick: Ariane Lipski O/U: Over 2.5 -172
Here we see GM3 taking on Bruno Silva, both coming off tough decision losses and looking to get back on track in the Middleweight division. Gerald Meerschaert is a very talented grappling ace which had him on a three-fight win streak before his last showing. Bruno Silva is a monster striker who has shown his ability to blow through opponents and go three hard rounds against one of the best in the world, Alex Pereira.
I think Bruno Silva gets the job done here, likely with an early knockout. Silva is one of my most confident straight plays on the card, so I have parlayed him with a few others.
Pick: Bruno Silva O/U: Under 1.5 -125
This fight was moved up to this card, and I am glad it was, as I can't wait to see Lupita Godinez back in action against her biggest test yet in one of the most experienced female fighters on the roster in Angela Hill. Lupita Godinez put everyone on notice in her last fight with a dominant display of wrestling that we have rarely seen in this division. Angela Hill is on a three-fight skid; however, she has kept them close and has experience against the top of the division.
I am taking Lupita Godinez here as her wrestling is top-tier, and I expect it to be too much for Angela Hill. To bring this number down, I will play her by a decision at -156 which I feel is safe, as Angela Hill has only been finished twice in her pro career.
Pick: Lupita Godinez O/U: Over 2.5 -400
This Heavyweight matchup sees Martin Buday as a large favorite over Lukasz Brzeski. Martin Buday looked good his last time out as he completely shut down Chris Barnett en route to what could've been a late finish but will go down as a decision. Lukasz Brzeski is coming off Dana White's Contender Series where he secured a late submission that was later turned into a no-contest.
I'm going with Buday here as he has shown his skills inside the UFC already.
Pick: Martin Buday O/U: Under 1.5 +144
This flyweight bout features Nina Nunes just weeks after her wife Amanda Nunes' title victory over Juliana Pena as she takes on tough veteran Cynthia Calvillo. Nina Nunes last fought Mackenzie Dern and lost in the first round, which is tough to read as she looked very affected by the time off; however, it was against top-level competition. Cynthia Calvillo has been stopped in her last two fights, although before that, she was a favorite over highly ranked Katlyn Chookagian, showing what many believe she is capable of.
I am going to lean with Calvillo here; although I have gone back and forth on this one, ultimately, Calvillo has more upside at this stage in her career.
Pick: Cynthia Calvillo O/U: Over 2.5 -222
This will be an all fireworks standup war at Lightweight for however long it lasts. Gabriel Benitez is a hard-hitting striker who has been around the UFC for a while. Charlie Ontiveros is a wildman who has fought up as high as Middleweight before moving down to this weight class, although he has been finished in each of his UFC performances thus far.
I've got Gabriel Benitez in this one as he has shown finishing ability, and each time Ontiveros has been this size an underdog prior, he has looked it.
Pick: Gabriel Benitez O/U: Under 1.5 -213
This is a fun Flyweight scrap that should see some big punches landed. Ode Osbourne is very long for the division, which allows him to strike with anyone and cause them problems with range. Tyson Nam has shown his power with several highlight knockouts and has been tough to finish over his UFC career.
I like Ode Osbourne, although it is much closer than the odds indicate, in my opinion. This number is way too much for me to bet on Osbourne as he has worried me with his habit of leaving his chin up, which could cost him against someone with power like Nam.
Pick: Ode Osbourne O/U: Under 2.5
This fight was rebooked last week, and my thoughts remain unchanged as Josh Quinlan makes his debut off the contender series against UFC veteran Jason Witt. Witt has been up and down over his last few, and it's tough to tell whether he will show up or not. Josh Quinlan is a powerful striker who has finished each of his professional wins. However, he is coming off a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs that overturned his contender series result.
I've got Quinlan, as I think his physical advantages outweigh the experience advantage of Witt. I will not bet this, as it's a steep line for a guy coming off a suspension.
Pick: Josh Quinlan O/U: Under 1.5 +124
This is a fun Bantamweight matchup to start the card. Yousef Zalal is moving down in weight which could serve him well as he held up well at Featherweight and could look stronger here. Damon Blackshear makes his debut and will be looking to show off his slick submission skills as he moves to the UFC, although he has faced high-caliber competition before in his career.
I will lean Yousef Zalal here as I believe he has more ways to win this fight, and I do not think it will be easy for Blackshear to submit him.
Pick: Yousef Zalal O/U: Over 2.5 -233
Marlon Vera ML -238
David Onama ML -303
Marlon Vera Dominick Cruz Over 4.5 -192
Lupita Godinez by Decision -156
Bruno Silva/ David Onama/ Marlon Vera +149
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