UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
April 05, 2024|

The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, headlined by a Middleweight rematch between rivals Brendan Allen -220 and Chris Curtis +185. I gave my prediction for that matchup and every other fight on the card, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 4/5/2024 10:30 AM

Brendan Allen -220 vs. Chris Curtis +185

A Middleweight rivalry is reignited here again on short notice. Brendan Allen is a big and long grappler with good kicks at distance and great chokes; his problem has been his chin, which is a huge concern anytime he fights a big puncher, with him being knocked out or hurt many times in his UFC career. Chris Curtis is a tremendous boxer in the pocket, and although he can struggle from the outside, he also has solid defensive grappling with strong takedown defense.

I like Curtis to get the upset again as he has a good style to beat Allen with power in his punches and good grappling defence. Give me the knockout prop for some additional value, as if it goes to decision, it is more than likely an Allen win.

Pick: Curtis O/U: Under 2.5 +140


Alexander Hernandez -202 vs. Damon Jackson +172

Featherweight veterans are looking to push up into the rankings matchup here. Alexander Hernandez is a big puncher early with an explosive wrestling attack, although his cardio has failed him before, especially at Featherweight. Damon Jackson is a long grappler with decent striking, although his durability is questionable, and he is getting up there in age.

I'll go with Hernandez here as his power will give Jackson trouble early, and I can't trust Jackson to put on a high pace to gas him out.

Pick: Hernandez O/U: Under 2.5 -160

Morgan Charierre -123 vs. Chepe Mariscal +103

This is a fantastic matchup of up-and-coming Featherweights. Morgan Charierre is a fun striker with plenty of high-level experience outside the UFC. Chepe Mariscal is a gritty and well-rounded fighter with a good ground game and brawling striking style; he has been knocked out several times outside the UFC, which is a concern.

I like Charierre here as I give him a decent edge in the striking and the finishing upside, so if he can defend the grappling of Chepe, I see him winning comfortably here.

Pick: Charierre O/U: Under 2.5 +160


Ignacio Bahamondes -320 vs. Christos Giagos +270

Lightweights with plenty to prove will look to make a statement in this interesting matchup. Ignacio Bahamondes is a gigantic guy for the weight class, with tremendous kickboxing and solid chokes, although his wrestling has given him trouble against higher-quality opposition. Christos Giagos is a fast-starting veteran who has taken on some of the toughest tests the division has to offer, although that has proven to be a step above his skill level.

I lean towards Bahamondes here as he should have big edges in striking and cardio, although he is not a guy I would bet on at this price.

Pick: Bahamondes O/U: Over 1.5 -175

Lukasz Brzeski +190 vs. Valter Walker -225

Heavyweight finishers collide here. Lukasz Brzeski will look to get his first UFC victory here after an unimpressive run; he is a decent striker, but his power is not at the level of many of his opponents. Valter Walker enters this one undefeated, having shown a decently well-rounded game and having gone into the championship rounds previously, with all that being done against relatively low-level competition.

I don't want my money near this fight, but I'll take Walker to win. Brzeski has proven he doesn't belong at this level, and Walker may have some potential.

Pick: Walker O/U: Over 1.5 -180


Trevor Peek +145 vs. Charlie Campbell -170

Wild knockout punchers square off in this incredible Lightweight matchup. Trevor Peek is pure action with his insane striking style and granite chin; he also has a surprisingly effective defensive grappling game. Charlie Campbell is a big puncher who hunts the finish well, although I am concerned about his defense and focus after the Chris Duncan loss, where he was badly knocked out when in full control.

I'll pick Campbell here as he is the much more skilled and well-rounded fighter, although I can't bet him with Peek having a decent durability edge.

Pick: Campbell O/U: Over 1.5 +120

Court McGee +245 vs. Alex Morono -290

Welterweights with clashing styles will fight here. Court McGee is a great wrestler with a high pace, although his durability appears to have faded with age. Alex Morono is a solid striker with good boxing and low kicks; he also keeps a good pace over three rounds.

I'll pick Morono because he should easily defend the wrestling and dominate the striking, but it's an easy pass at this price.

Pick: Morono O/U: Over 2.5 -130


Norma Dumont -129 vs. Germaine De Randamie +109

Veteran Bantamweights test their skills against each other in this one. Norma Dumont is a well-rounded fighter with solid boxing and wrestling, although she is not very high volume when she fights. Germaine De Randamie returns from a long layoff here; she has been one of the best in the world with her elite kickboxing and solid ground game.

I'll go with Dumont here as she has been much more active, and I can't trust that GDR will return anything close to what she was.

Pick: Dumont O/U: Over 2.5 -275

Cynthia Calvillo +110 vs. Piera Rodriguez -130

A Strawweight veteran returns here against a young up-and-comer. Cynthia Calvillo is on a tough losing streak; however, it has come against nothing but high-quality competition. Piera Rodriguez comes in off her first career loss, where her grappling may have been a bit exposed as she lost by submission against the first high-level grappler she faced; her striking is alright, and she has decent kickboxing and solid pace.

I lean with Calvillo here as she is much more proven and tested, although it's hard to put my money on someone with such a long losing streak.

Pick: Calvillo O/U: Over 2.5 -350


Jean Matsumoto -160 vs. Dan Argueta +140

Young Bantamweights look to make a name for themselves in this fun clash. Jean Matsumoto is a very young prospect with great kickboxing, although he has been taken down and controlled by some lower-level opponents on the regional scene. Dan Argueta is a relentless wrestler with great pace, although his striking is wild, which makes him very hittable.

I'll take Argueta as the underdog as I give him the wrestling edge, and his pressure can also help him succeed in striking.

Pick: Argueta O/U: Over 2.5

Dylan Budka -136 vs. Cesar Almeida +116

Middleweights face off here, each debuting off Dana White's Contender Series. Dylan Budka is a grinding wrestler who got his Contender Series fight on very short notice and was still able to win, although I don't think his striking is very high-level. Cesar Almeida is a very high-level kickboxer attempting the late transition to MMA, and with him being so new to the sport, I was very impressed with the defensive grappling he showed on the Contender Series.

I've got Almeida here, as I like him to defend Budka's takedowns and land the more damaging blows.

Pick: Almeida O/U: Over 2.5 -170


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Chris Curtis by TKO/KO +250

Morgan Charierre -115

Dan Argueta +170

Cesar Almeida +131

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