UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria Predictions

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 21, 2023|

The UFC returns to the sunshine state with a hard-hitting Featherweight main event between recent title challenger Josh Emmett +265 and unbeaten up-and-comer Ilia Topuria -357 from Jacksonville, Florida. This card has great fights from top to bottom, including the main card opener at Middleweight between Brendan Allen -189 and Bruno Silva +146. I went over my picks and bets for the entire card, so let’s get into it.

Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 6/21/2023 6:00 PM EST

Josh Emmett +265 vs. Ilia Topuria -357

The Featherweight main event features two ferocious finishers with a large gap in age and experience. Josh Emmett comes back here after his battle with Yair Rodriguez, where he took a lot of damage in a brutal loss, he showed he still has the huge right hand, but he has not looked great to me of late with a game very dependent on loading up the right hand and when his opponent does not fear that power, I see him as often outmatched. Ilia Topuria has been one of my favorite prospects for a long time as he has a mauling grappling game that often overwhelms opponents too early submission, but he has also shown crazy power as he has developed his boxing, and his leg kicks are also a real weapon of his which Emmett has struggled with, and although many point to the head kicks against Jai Herbert as a concern, I was amazed by the chin and recovery of Topuria which may be necessary again.

I’ve got Topuria here as I think he has every advantage in this fight and will be able to implement his ground game at some point and get a submission with how aggressively he attacks them, although a knockout is very much in play with his power against an older Emmett coming off a fight where he took a lot of damage. To get value on this fight, I took Topuria inside 2.5 rounds as I am confident he will get the finish in that time, and it drastically lowers his price tag.

Pick: Topuria O/U: Under 2.5 -238


Amanda Ribas -204 vs. Maycee Barber +155

Two Flyweights looking to establish themselves as title threats here on this co-main event stage. Amanda Ribas has impressed many since her move up in weight, where she has been able to compete with the high end of the division immediately in both grappling and a much-improved striking game, although I still have some concerns about her chin as she has been finished several times by strikes. Maycee Barber was once considered a threat to become the youngest champion ever after some highlight finishes early in her career, although since then, we have gotten a much better idea of what her game looks like at this highest level, and although she is very strong, she often lacks the technique to win grappling exchanges consistently, and although she has some power in her strikes, she struggles to close distance.

I’m leaning with Ribas here as I believe she will win the minutes of this fight and could find a submission, although, with Barber’s power and aggression, I am not completely ruling out a knockout on her side.

Pick: Ribas O/U: Under 2.5 +175

Justin Tafa -185 vs. Austen Lane +142

Classic Heavyweight brawl takes its place here on the main card. Justin Tafa is a hard-hitting kickboxer who has also shown some good durability spending most of his career in the UFC already. Austen Lane makes his debut here off of Dana White’s Contender series after making several appearances on the show, he is very new to MMA as an athlete, and despite some improvements, he lacks a lot of experience.

I’m taking Tafa by knockout here, as I think he will have a considerable edge in both power and durability.

Pick: Tafa O/U: Under 1.5


Gabriel Santos -238 vs. David Onama +180

Wild action could take place between these Featherweight prospects looking to take the next step in contention with a big showing. Gabriel Santos made his debut on very short notice against Lerone Murphy in London and gave a great account of his skills going three rounds at a high pace showing his grappling skillset and hard-hitting striking along with a great chin to take the shots from Murphy. David Onama is a big guy for the division, and he hits very hard, although his gas tank is not great, and he has had very competitive grappling exchanges with much smaller opponents.

I like Santos here as I give him a big edge in the grappling which I think he will use to submit Onama later in the fight.

Pick: Santos O/U: Under 2.5 -128

Brendan Allen -189 vs. Bruno Silva +146

Great matchup here between Middleweights on the cusp of contention. Brendan Allen has made great strides in his time with the UFC showing a smothering ground game and also powerful kicks and constant motion while striking, but his biggest problem has been his chin as he has not responded well to big shots, which has cost him some fights he was competitive in. Bruno Silva is a very hard-hitting kickboxer who bounced back from a tough showing against Gerald Meerschaert to knock out Brad Tavares in the first round his last time out; he has been submitted on several occasions, although I believe he has made great improvements to his grappling from some of those losses earlier in his career learning from them.

I’ve got Silva here as the underdog, as I like him to land the bigger shots on Allen when the fight is standing.

Pick: Silva O/U: Under 1.5 +114


Neil Magny -172 vs. Phil Rowe +133

Experienced Welterweights with some physical similarity matchup here. Neil Magny has the most wins in the division’s history and reached that mark by using his grappling game to dominate opponents that he should beat and compete with higher caliber opposition. Phil Rowe is a long striker on a nice win streak, although I am not high on his grappling as we have seen him controlled by guys like Jason Witt, who is not on the level of Neil Magny.

I took Neil Magny here as I think he can dominate in the grappling and find a submission.

Pick: Magny O/U: Under 2.5 +139

Randy Brown -250 vs. Wellington Turman +190

Veteran clash between Welterweights here. Randy Brown is a long kickboxer with a flashy style who has a bit of a durability issue but also has a sneaky ground game that he rarely uses. Wellington Turman comes down in weight here after seeing mixed success at Middleweight; he has a decent submission game, although he is not the hardest hitter.

I’ll pick Brown as I think he is much better, although it becomes harder to trust him every time we see him get hit with shots he could avoid.

Pick: Brown O/U: Under 2.5 -135


Mateusz Rebecki -156 vs. Loik Radzhabov +123

Big test for these two Lightweights who are coming off debut wins. Mateusz Rebecki has an interesting debut where he showed his power and strength, although he could not finish his opponent, which left many unimpressed, although he still showed a well-rounded offensive attack. Loik Radzhabov entered the UFC having competed with good competition in the PFL, making him an intriguing fighter to watch as he was able to maul several high-caliber opponents with his wrestling and clinch game.

I’m leaning with Rebecki here, although it is hard to bet him, as Radzhabov has never been finished as a pro, and Rebecki does not have the best pacing during his fights.

Pick: Rebecki O/U: Over 2.5 -185

Tabatha Ricci -135 vs. Gillian Robertson +106

Two Strawweight grapplers test their skills against one another here. Tabatha Ricci has had some impressive showings against other grapplers so far, showing a solid wrestling attack and an opportunistic submission game. Gillian Robertson is a long-time veteran who has made the move up in weight here; she has a fantastic submission game, although I feel she does not have much else in her arsenal.

I like Ricci here as I give here the edge in striking and wrestling, although Robertson may have the submission edge.

Pick: Ricci O/U: Under 2.5 +155


Zhalgas Zhumagulov -204 vs. Joshua Van +155

Short notice matchup between veteran and newcomer here at Flyweight. Zhalgas Zhumagulov was meant to compete last weekend, but after a late pullout, he ends up here; he is known for fighting close with a well-rounded pressure game. Joshua Van is an absolute finisher as despite him being young in his pro career, he has yet to make it into the third round, although he has yet to compete with anything near UFC level competition.

I’ll pick Zhumagulov here as he has the clear experience edge, but I have a hard time trusting him as a favorite against anyone.

Pick: Zhumagulov O/U: Under 2.5 -196

Trevor Peek -116 vs. Chepe Mariscal -110

Wild short notice clash here on the prelims at Lightweight. Trevor Peek comes in as an unbeaten wild man with a crazy style that naturally leads to great fights. Chepe Mariscal steps in here, and he is going up in weight; he has competed with some UFC-caliber guys before, although he was finished in some of those matchups against Steve Garcia and Joanderson Brito.

I like Peek here, as he should have the size, power, and durability edge in what will be a chaotic fight.

Pick: Peek O/U: Under 1.5 -164


Jamall Emmers -213 vs. Jack Jenkins +165

A fun matchup between Featherweights. Jamall Emmers is a long guy for the weight class who has shown good durability and a well-rounded offensive attack. Jack Jenkins has come into the UFC with a reputation for his leg kicks that have devastated opponents, but he also has a solid ground game that he showed on the Contender Series.

I’m picking Emmers here, but after the line movement, it is tough to bet him at this size favorite against Jenkins, who is not a bad fighter by any means.

Pick: Emmers O/U: Over 2.5 -185

Tatsuro Taira -270 vs. Kleydson Rodrigues +205

Flyweight prospects clash here early on the card. Tatsuro Taira has really impressed me with his grappling game at such a young age, as his ability to control positions is rarely seen in this division, and he works aggressively for submissions. Kleydson Rodrigues is a very intriguing prospect, as he has shown a well-rounded game with very hard kicks; he had a tough debut against CJ Vergara, whom Taira dominated.

I took Taira to get a submission here as although I feel the price on the money line is a bit much, I like Taira’s chances to get Rodrigues in a bad position and capitalize at some point in the fight.

Pick: Taira O/U: Under 2.5 -143


Cody Brundage -189 vs. Sedriques Dumas +145

Middleweight finishers start off the card. Cody Brundage is a powerful wrestler who comes in here on short notice, which is concerning as he has already not had the best gas tank. Sedriques Dumas is a long kickboxer with a sneaky submission game, although I feel he is undersized for the division, and I have questions about his durability.

I took a shot on Dumas to get an early finish here as I think Brundage will be very aggressive early on, creating opportunities for Dumas, a dangerous finisher with both his hands and chokes.

Pick: Dumas O/U: Under 1.5 -167

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Bruno Silva

Neil Magny

Justin Tafa by KO

Tatsuro Taira by Submission

Ilia Topuria + Under 2.5

Sedriques Dumas + Under 1.5

Gabriel Santos Round 2/3

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