Sean Strickland shocked the world for a second time in the main event of UFC 328, handing previously undefeated Khamzat Chimaev the first loss of his MMA career via split decision.
It was a sluggish fight from both fighters, who laboured their way through the championship rounds with competitive striking numbers and a surprising lack of wrestling aggression from the Chechen. Two of the three judges decided Strickland's accurate jab did enough damage to secure him the final round of the fight, turning in two 48-47 scorecards to award Strickland the victory.
The oddsmakers are always confident in Israel Adesanya.
— Verdict (@TournamentsMMA) April 5, 2023
He's lost 3 fights to Alex Pereira, but the oddsmakers still have him as a favorite heading into this weekend.#UFC287 pic.twitter.com/0MF4krsH1v
Khamzat Chimaev's cardio looked about as bad as we've seen it in his MMA career, as he struggled to take Strickland down after the first round of the fight. Strickland was able to hold him down for an entire round in the second, the first time that's happened to Khamzat in his sixteen-fight career. We've seen Chimaev slow down significantly against former opposition, notably Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, but not to this amount, and certainly not this early either. Multiple factors can play into this, including Strickland's stellar takedown and submission defense, but it'd be amiss to not notice Chimaev struggled with the weight cut going into his first defense of his Middleweight title.
Shortly after the fight, Chimaev informed Dana White he no longer wishes to compete in the Middleweight division, and now eyes an immediate jump up to the Light-Heavyweight division, where Carlos Ulberg currently reigns. The question now is which fighter "Borz" takes on in his 205-pound debut, the third weight class of his short MMA career.
In 2023, Khamzat Chimaev was scheduled to face former Middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa at UFC 294. Costa pulled out two weeks out, prompting Kamaru Usman to step in on short notice, and the fight was never re-booked. But just because it fizzled doesn't mean these two aren't itching to fight each other. Costa has repeatedly called out Chimaev online since their fight fell out. Costa recently made a successful and impressive debut at Light-Heavyweight, taking the undefeated record of Azamat Murzakanov at UFC 327 via third-round knockout. With Costa coming off a career-best performance and Chimaev looking to establish himself in a new division, this feels like the perfect fight to book next for both fighters.
When the UFC booked Chimaev against Strickland, it was clear they're moving away from a meritocratic system, and instead offering title fights based on two statistics: name value and availability. Given Chimaev's star power in the sport, the UFC will be itching to get him back into a championship spot. This matchup isn't as likely, but because of Chimaev's name and recognition, he could be next for Carlos Ulberg's Light-Heavyweight title. Ulberg is coming off a first-round KO win over Jiri Prochazka, but is sidelined with an ACL tear for the next six months. Chimaev averages one fight every eight months, so that timeline fits for "Borz." If the UFC wants Chimaev back in a headliner spot, this could be the next move.
The oddsmakers are always confident in Israel Adesanya.
— Verdict (@TournamentsMMA) April 5, 2023
He's lost 3 fights to Alex Pereira, but the oddsmakers still have him as a favorite heading into this weekend.#UFC287 pic.twitter.com/0MF4krsH1v
Light-Heavyweight is a totally fresh division for the Chechen, and any matchup is an interesting one on paper. The leading stories going into his 205 debut will undoubtedly be his uncharacteristic performance against Strickland, and whether that'll persist into his new division. As well as that, how will he size up against the division's best? The two names that stand out to me the most are former Champions Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev, who will both bring a completely new style to test Chimaev in the cage.
Jiri Prochazka has one of the most unpredictable fighting styles we've seen in MMA. With his relentless cardio and signature awkward striking style, it'll be a puzzle Chimaev won't be able to even attempt to solve until he steps in the cage. We've seen Chimaev struggle with fighters in the past on the feet, most notably Gilbert Burns, and with all respect to Durinho, Prochazka poses a much larger threat on the feet, one Chimaev has never seen before. And equally, Chimaev possesses all the tools to hand Prochazka a second straight defeat, with Prochazka being finished in all of his career losses and posting a 60% takedown defense accuracy. Those are the kind of numbers Chimaev will smell blood on.
Ankalaev essentially poses the opposite problem. A tidy striker with a strong wrestling base both offensively and defensively. Kamaru Usman is the most decorated wrestler we've seen Chimaev face in the Octagon so far, and he was able to stuff eight of Chimaev's twelve attempted takedowns. And we have to remember, that was a version of Usman coming up a weight class with little preparation on two weeks' notice. Ankalaev fights in a weight class 35 pounds heavier, and if Chimaev can't assert his signature wrestling style in that division, he could be in serious trouble coming off the first loss of his career.
Whether it's the tricky style of Prochazka or the technical well-roundedness of Magomed Ankalaev, we'll see in the upcoming months how the division unfolds and where Chimaev can fit in to the picture. Overall, it's very likely one of these matchups is the next for the former Middleweight Champion.
What did you make of Khamzat Chimaev's performance against Sean Strickland, and how would you matchmake him in the new division? As a member of the Verdict Community, let us know with a comment below.