UFC Vegas Odds Breakdown

UFC Vegas Odds Breakdown

April 26, 2024|

Hopefully, everybody's UFC 300 hangover has worn off, as the UFC is in full force from now through the summer with some stacked fight cards. After a week off, the premier combat sports promotion will return to its second home in Las Vegas at the UFC APEX. Headlining this card will be two top-ten Flyweights Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez. These two have come up short when it comes time to face a big name, but have remained staples of the division for many years. For all you bettors, let's take a good look at each line, and find some value to make some picks.

Odds are provided via Bet Online AG, as of April 23rd at 9:00 PM.

Matheus Nicolau (-190 fav) vs Alex Perez (+165 dog)

This is a close fight to call. It seems that both fighters match up well against one another, but there are some red flags. Nicolau is very low volume with a questionable chin, he has very good grappling but just hasn't been able to take that leap into contention. Perez made weight, but he has been submitted multiple times in his career. That could be an area Nicolau could exploit, and I think he wins via decision this weekend.

Pick: Over 4.5 rounds


Ryan Spann (-200 fav) vs Bogdan Guskov (+170 dog)

In terms of skill, Ryan Spann is without a doubt the superior fighter. He's a grappler who can also strike and has fought much better competition, while Bogdan Guskov got submitted by Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut. Guskov is very hittable, and if Spann can take him down, I see no issue in him being able to find the submission.

_Pick: Spann _

Ariane Da Silva (+125 dog) vs Karine Silva (-145 fav)

This is a fun featured bout on this card. Karine Silva is a young, up-and-coming prospect at 115 who's on an eight-fight win streak. Silva has a 100% finish rate, something you don't see often in female fighters, while Ariane Da Silva is on a very nice run of her own. Da Silva has some fantastic wins, but also has blown fights she was meant to win, so she's very inconsistent. I think Silva has the advantage everywhere, so I'm picking her to win this fight, inside the distance.

Pick: Silva


Austen Lane (+205 dog) vs Jhonata Diniz (-240 fav)

This fight is your typical Fight Night main card bout, there is no shot this fight goes the distance. Austen Lane has a 100% finish rate and has lost all of his fights by knockout. Lane's striking defense is very poor, and this seems like a set-up fight for Jhonata Diniz, who is coming into the UFC with a kickboxing background. Diniz also has a 100% finish rate. Lane should utilize his wrestling if he wants a chance at winning this fight, but I think Diniz will find a finish very early. The odds on the Diniz side and total are very inflated, so either option would make for a good parlay piece. If you just want to take action on this fight alone, I don't see any value on these lines.

Pick: N/A

Jonathan Pearce (-170 fav) vs David Onama (+145 dog)

We have a very fun striker versus grappler matchup on our hands here. I love both fighters, both are very exciting to watch and are always looking for finishes, and it's simple, whoever can execute their game plan will win this fight. I like Pearce here because he can grind and break you down as the fight goes on. If he doesn't land a takedown, he will try and try again until he gets you down. Onama's 45% takedown defense is alarming, so I think Pearce will be able to take him down and win the fight with the wrestling. If you like lottery bets, Pearce in rounds 2 or 3 isn't a bad look.

Pick: Pearce


Tim Means (+260 dog) vs Uros Medic (-310 fav)

Uros Medic is one of my favorite prospects at 170 lbs, his striking is very, very good and just seems to get better every time he steps into the octagon. On the other hand, Tim Means is near the end of his long UFC career. Means has lost three of his last four, while Medic's only two losses in the UFC have come to Myktybek Orolbai and Jalin Turner, so absolutely no shame in that. He's finished every single one of his nine wins. I like Medic here, his line is also very inflated, so could be a good addition to a parlay. Otherwise, I don't see any value in this fight.

Pick: N/A

Rani Yahya (+355 dog) vs Victor Henry (-455 fav)

Victor Henry is a crazy favorite against Rani Yahya here, and while he should win with ease, it's hard to find value betting on either guy who's over 35 years old. This is a very tough matchup for Yahya, Henry is the superior striker, and should just piece him up on the feet. I don't see any action with this fight.

Pick: N/A


Austin Hubbard (+145 dog) vs Michal Figlak (-170 fav)

The Ultimate Fighter veteran Austin Hubbard takes on Michal Figlak, who we haven't seen compete since 2022. We can only hope that Figlak has improved since his last outing, a really bad loss to Fares Ziam in which he was taken down three times and controlled the whole fight. Hubbard is a decently skilled fighter, I like the over in this fight.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds

DonTale Mayes (-107 dog) vs Caio Machado (-113 fav)

This fight opened up as a pick 'em, with Machado moving to a very slight favorite. I think Machado looked good in his debut against Mick Parkin, and while he doesn't have the best ground game, I don't think Don'Tale Mayes will be looking to wrestle. He doesn't go for takedowns, and so if this fight is purely on the feet, I'm picking Machado all day.

_Pick: Machado _


Marnic Mann (+275 dog) vs Ketlen Souza (-335 fav)

Souza is a huge favorite against Marnic Mann. I think there's a clear path to victory for Souza with her striking, and she will put damage on Mann throughout the fight. Unfortunately, I don't see any value here.

Pick: N/A

James Llontop (-350 fav) vs Chris Padilla (+285 dog)

Another big favorite in James Llontop here, he seems to be a good up-and-coming prospect coming out of Dana White's Contender Series, he'll take on a fellow debutant in Chris Padilla. I like Llontop here, but see no value in any plays.

Pick: N/A


Ivana Petrovic (-465 fav) vs Liang Na (+365 dog)

Liang Na is the most exciting fighter you've never heard of, be sure to tune in to watch this early prelim. Na is the definition of kill or be killed, she is all gas no brakes in round one, and if she survives onto the second, she's completely gassed. This likely will be her last fight in the UFC if she doesn't get a win here, but her style speaks for itself, I like an under one-and-a-half round here.

Pick: Under 1.5 rounds

Gabriel Benitez (+167 dog) vs Maheshate (-192 fav)

The opening fight of the card features two fighters on losing streaks who look to rebound. Maheshate is eleven years younger and will have a four-inch height advantage, and we've seen Gabriel Benitez take a lot of damage over his last few fights. I think Maheshate gets him out of there before the judges scorecards.

Pick: Under 2.5 rounds

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