UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez Preview
The UFC returns to the APEX with another fantastic Fight Night card. In the co-main, two heavy-handed finishers will collide when Ryan Spann takes on Bogdan Guskov. In the main event, two premiere Flyweights look to insert themselves back into the title picture, Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with quickly-rising prospects and established veterans. Let's take a look at the fights on the main card.
Tim Means vs. Uros Medic
Means has won two of his last five outings and has wins over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Nicolas Dalby (23-4-1), and Andre Fialho (16-8-0). He’s about as gritty as they come and is always down for a good scrap. He has excellent dirty boxing in the clinch and devastating knees and elbows. Despite Means’ tendency to brawl, he remains technical and won’t overextend or overexert himself, always throwing efficiently. He has crisp boxing, underrated power, and does an excellent job of equally attacking the head and body. Training at Fit NHB, he uses an upright stance on the feet but moves his head very well and is willing to eat a shot to land one. Means averages over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and is willing to mix it up, doing a great job of controlling his opponent when he’s on top. He always pushes the pace and hangs in the pocket, averaging about 79 significant strikes landed in his last five wins.
Medic has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0), Omar Morales (11-4-0), and Aalon Cruz (11-5-0). He’s a powerful kickboxer with great footwork and excellent kicks. He does a great job varying his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. Medic throws everything with power but doesn’t telegraph; often, mixing kicks in at the end of combinations. Training at Kings MMA, he favors power to volume but has solid cardio and can push a consistent pace across fifteen minutes. He’s highly accurate, landing 60% of the significant strikes he’s attempted in the UFC, and can produce a flash knockout at any time. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but will not accept position on his back and will pursue submissions. Medic has only seen the third round once, with seven of his eleven fights ending in round one.
Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama
Pearce has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Darren Elkins (28-11-0), Christian Rodriguez (11-1-0), and Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper who is willing to engage the fight anywhere. He’s an accurate, technical striker on the feet that throws everything tight and straight, never getting sloppy. Pearce has excellent head movement, footwork, and distance management, often avoiding strikes before countering with big shots. He’s averaging over five takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is a very fluid grappler, transitioning quickly in top position. Training at Fight Ready, he’s always active on top and will constantly throw brutal ground and pound while looking for submission openings. Pearce is unpredictable, will attempt wild strikes like jumping knees, and continually creates scrambles.
Onama has won three of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Gabriel Benitez (23-11-0) and Garrett Armfield (8-3-0). He is in perpetual motion on the feet and constantly switches stances. He’s always coming forward, fights behind his jab, and throws every shot with fight-ending intentions. Onama has finished all ten of his wins, with six coming in the first round, so he’s most dangerous early in the fight. He manages distances well and will land damage from the outside, but is more than willing to bang inside the pocket. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he’s a solid grappler with great clinch control, decent takedowns, and advances position quickly on the ground. Onama is likelier to pursue a submission than a ground-and-pound finish and has excellent chokes, with all his submission wins coming via some form of strangulation.
Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz
Lane has won three of his last five outings with one No Contest and is looking to score his first UFC victory. He is a lengthy striker who often opens up with a barrage of kicks before blitzing in to unleash combinations. He’s very explosive, throws everything in combination, and spends much of his time in the cage brawling inside the pocket. Training at Bulldog Boxing, Lane has solid power in his hands and decent cardio, carrying his punching capacity across 15 minutes. He is a former NFL player and has finished all his wins, with only two fights in his career seeing a second round. While he won’t typically engage in grappling exchanges, he will throw heavy ground-and-pound if he finds himself in top position. Lane has shown an ability to survive off his back and will pursue submissions if given the opportunity.
Diniz is undefeated and making his UFC debut. He’s a former professional kickboxer with a record of 29-7 and fifteen knockout wins. He throws everything with power and can produce a knockout with a single clean shot. Diniz constantly presses forward and cuts off the cage well, often closing the distance to unload hooks. He remains technical throughout and varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs. Training with the Santa Fe Team, he throws bombs but won’t telegraph and does an excellent job of mixing kicks into combinations. Diniz has finished all his MMA wins in round one, along with eight of his kickboxing wins, and is most dangerous early on.
#12 Ariane Lipski vs. #13 Karine Silva
Lipski has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #14 ranked Casey O’Neill (9-2-0), Melissa Gatto (8-2-2), and JJ Aldrich (13-6-0). She is a classic Muay Thai fighter with constant forward pressure, great clinch striking, and voluminous striking. She does an excellent job of varying her shots, often opening combos with a body jab before attacking upstairs. Lipski has great footwork and typically holds the center of the octagon, keeping her opponent on their heels. Training with Team Nunes, she remains technical across all 15 minutes and often looks to counter-strike, waiting for her opponent to open up before unleashing combinations. She’s willing to grapple and has great defensive wrestling, with 79% takedown defense and a fantastic ability to reverse attempts and land on top. Lipski is at her best in a technical striking battle where she can hold the center and control the pace.
Silva is on an eight-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Maryna Moroz (11-6-0), Ketlen Souza (13-4-0), and Poliana Botelho (9-5-0). She is a dangerous submission artist with solid power in her hands. She’s in perpetual motion on the feet, constantly feinting and opening combinations with kicks. Silva throws everything in combination and has excellent clinch striking, often using it to set up her grappling. Training with the Gile Ribeiro Team, she’s averaging over 2 takedowns landed and over 4 submissions attempted per fifteen minutes. She has excellent takedown entries, transitions quickly in top position, and can wrap up submissions seemingly in the blink of an eye. Silva has found six of her eight submissions in round one and has only seen the second round once in her last eight fights.
#11 Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov
Spann has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #14 ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (12-4-0), Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0), and Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1). He’s exceptionally dangerous early on, with 16 of his 18 career finishes coming in the first round. He pushes a heavy pace from the starting bell, constantly throwing overhands and hooks. Spann is dangerous on top and on his back, especially if he can get ahold of his opponent’s neck, with all of his submission wins coming via some form of choke, with nine of those being guillotines. On the feet, he throws everything with fight-ending intentions and possesses one-shot knockout power, especially in his right hand. Training at Fortis MMA, Spann fights with a kill-or-be-killed mentality on the feet and on the ground, with 5 of his seven losses coming via finish and only three of his wins coming via decision.
Guskov has won four of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Zach Pauga (6-3-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker who comes out guns blazing. He applies heavy forward pressure and always looks for a knockout, throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at GOR MMA, Guskov will throw the occasional kick but does most of his damage in the pocket, fighting in a phonebooth. He has power in both hands but is seemingly always looking to set up his right, constantly unleashing devastating overhands. He has 12 finishes in the first round and has only gone to one decision, as well as only seeing the third round twice in his career. Guskov tends to headhunt and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but he has good head movement and moves in and out of the pocket very efficiently.
#5 Matheus Nicolau vs. #8 Alex Perez
Nicolau has won four of his last five outings and has wins over #6 ranked Flyweight Manel Kape (19-6-0), #9 ranked Flyweight Tim Elliot (21-13-1), and #11 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-8-0). He is very defensively sound on the feet and won’t stay in one spot for long, with only 34% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. He often floats on the outside and has excellent distance management, regularly darting in and out of the pocket to land damage. Training at Novo União, Nicolau is a counter-striker who will often dip his head to throw overhands, especially with his right. He is a black belt in BJJ, averaging over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, but often prefers to keep it standing. His pace tends to increase as the fight continues, and he does a great job of changing levels and attacking both the head and body. All of Nicolau’s submissions have come via choke, and he’s extremely dangerous if he finds his opponent’s neck.
Perez has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Jussier Formiga (24-8-0), Jordan Espinosa (15-10-0), and Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0). He is a well-rounded fighter with brutal leg kicks and solid wrestling. He pushes a heavy pace from bell to bell, constantly pressuring forward, dipping his head, and throwing bombs. Perez varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and regularly targeting his opponent’s legs. He is averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has heavy top control. He’ll usually pursue a submission over ground and pound, and with six of his seven submissions coming via choke, he’s very dangerous if he finds his opponent’s neck. He’s always pursuing a finish, with eight of his eleven UFC fights not seeing the judge’s scorecards. Perez has gone to the second round twice since 2018 and is at his best early in the fight.
Best Bets
Jonathan Pearce Moneyline: This is one of the most interesting matchups on the card. Both are rising prospects and very well-rounded. Although Onama likely has a power advantage on the feet, I believe Pearce's wrestling will be the key in this fight. I expect Pearce to land repeated takedowns, control Onama, and earn a victory.
Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO: Although he's young in his MMA career, he competed professionally in kickboxing for well over a decade and is highly experienced. His opponent, Austen Lane, has solid power but proven to be rather finishable. Now facing a heavy-hitting, experienced striker, I don't expect him to fare much better than he did in his last fight. Diniz should be able to produce a knockout early on.
Matheus Nicolau Moneyline: A bit of an odd matchup, both fighters are coming off tough losses and looking to put themselves back in the title conversation. While this will likely make both man push the pace, I believe Nicolau is the more well-rounded fighter and is a bit more dangerous all around. Perez is very tough, so I wouldn't rely on a finish, but Nicolau has the skills to pick up a win and re-enter title contention.
