The UFC is at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend for a fight night card set to celebrate Mexican Independence Day headlined by Flyweight champion Alexa Grasso +140 taking on Valentina Shevchenko -182 in a rematch of their battle earlier this year where Grasso scored the massive upset win. I went over every fight on this deep card and gave my picks and best bets, so let's go over it.
Odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 9/14/2023 9:00 AM EST
The Flyweight title is on the line in this rematch that is set to determine a lot about the division's future. Alexa Grasso has become the champion behind a very well-rounded attack with strong boxing and a tremendous ground game that earned her the finish over Shevchenko last time out. Valentina Shevchenko looks to bounce back here; she has been a very effective counter striker over her career, although she has been grappled in her last few fights, perhaps showing a hole in her game.
I lean toward Shevchenko as my pick, as I still feel she has enough left in the tank to put together a winning game plan here. However, my more confident pick is the over as I see this fight going to a decision more often than not with these two being familiar with each other and respecting their game.
Pick: Shevchenko O/U: Over 4.5 -143
A Welterweight banger is expected here in the highly anticipated co-main event. Kevin Holland has been very active, showing improvement many times out with great boxing and an improved wrestling game to go with an already dangerous submission game; he is also very durable. Jack Della Maddalena has been an eye-catching prospect with dazzling boxing that has given him a nice highlight reel; however, his ground game and fight IQ were brought into question after his last fight, where he jumped for submissions with a hurt opponent several times, which nearly cost him the fight.
I like Holland as the underdog here as the striking will be very close, and I give the ground edge to Holland, who will also have a reach advantage, giving me enough reasons to bet him here. I also like the over, as both guys are durable, making me see this one go to a decision more often than not.
Pick: Holland O/U: Over 2.5 +105
The youngest fighter in the UFC makes another appearance here at Bantamweight. Raul Rosas Jr. looks to bounce back after a tough second fight against Christian Rodriguez; he has fantastic grappling with great control early, enough to finish many opponents. Terrence Mitchell is back; he is a long fighter coming off a tough showing against Cameron Saaiman.
Rosas Jr. should dominate here as he will have a massive advantage on the ground early, which I see him using to get ground and pound or submission in round one.
Pick: Rosas Jr. O/U: Under 1.5 -303
This fight features a Lightweight prospect with many expectations on him looking to continue to step up in competition here. Daniel Zellhuber has been a highly touted prospect, as he has fantastic striking and an excellent frame for the division, although his ground game is still a slight question mark. Christos Giagos is an experienced veteran with a very high level of competition; he has a solid game, although his durability is a concern, with him being finished by most of the higher-caliber opponents he has faced.
I like Zellhuber here, as he looked much more comfortable in his last fight with Lando Vannata.
Pick: Zellhuber O/U: Under 2.5
It's a solid test for a fascinating young Featherweight to open the main card. Fernando Padilla made a name for himself by stepping in on short notice and knocking out veteran Julian Erosa early. Kyle Nelson is a tough fighter with solid power and a decent grappling attack.
This price makes me feel that Padilla is overrated after a promising debut win, as I have not seen enough from him to justify this price. For that reason, I'll lean with Nelson to win this one.
Pick: Nelson O/U: Over 2.5
Strawweight clash of styles here. Lupita Godinez has been an interesting fighter to watch as she has shown a very high-level ground game and decent boxing; I believe she has a very high ceiling. Elise Reed is a solid boxer with good movement, although her ground game is not great, and she is not the most consistent.
I'll pick Godinez to get a finish in this one as if she looks to take it to the ground, she will completely dominate.
Pick: Godinez O/U: Under 2.5
It's a good clash of Middleweights on win streaks looking to continue their run here. Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer who has improved drastically over his time in the UFC and is now on a three-fight knockout streak that has him primed for a jump in competition. Josh Fremd returns here off a win over Jamie Pickett, where he was able to outwork Pickett, although, after missing weight, it was not his best performance.
I like Kopylov here as he can defend any grappling that Fremd may try and win a striking match.
Pick: Kopylov O/U: Over 1.5
All action Flyweight clash goes down here. Edgar Chairez stepped up in his debut against Tatsuro Taira, who I am very high on, and gave a solid account of himself making it to a decision and nearly finishing the fight late. Daniel Lacerda is the definition of kill or be killed as he will empty the tank trying to finish opponents with his wild power, which has nearly worked for him several times, although, to this point, he has yet to secure a UFC win.
I'll take Chairez here as he is very tough to finish, making me think he will outlast the reckless Lacerda.
Pick: Chairez O/U: Over 1.5
Good matchup of up-and-coming Flyweight grapplers here. Tracy Cortez is a strong starter with good top control, although her striking isn't great, and she slows down. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a tall, long grappler with decent striking and good cardio; she has proven she can out-grapple solid wrestlers like Miranda Maverick.
I've got Jasudavicius here, as she should be favored with her size and striking advantages.
Pick: Jasudavicius O/U: Over 2.5
Lightweight firefights are here early on the card. Charlie Campbell is a knockout artist who many may remember from his wild Contender Series fight, where he was knocked out after having Chris Duncan Badly hurt. Alex Reyes returns off a long injury layoff here, it is hard to tell how he will look coming back, but he is a fast starter with a solid submission game from what we know.
I'll pick Campbell to get an early finish in this one, as he has shown real power, and there is little to trust on the Reyes side.
Pick: Campbell O/U: Under 1.5
Two Strawweights hungry for UFC success make their debut here. Josefine Knutsson comes in here after recently getting a win on the Contender Series that did not impress Dana White enough for an immediate contract; she showed a strong clinch attack in that fight, controlling it from start to finish. Marnic Mann is also a Contender Series veteran, although her outing was not very successful, being knocked out by Bruna Brasil after not being able to get her grappling going at all.
I'm picking Knutsson here as she is better everywhere by a wide margin, which justifies this price.
Pick: Knutsson O/U: Over 2.5
Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Over 2.5