The PFL is bringing playoff action to San Antonio, Texas featuring the Featherweight and Light Heavyweight semi-finals headlined by Bubba Jenkins -400 taking on Jesus Pinedo +300. I went over all the main card matchups and gave my predictions, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 1:50 PM EST
Featherweights headline here as the top seed takes on an underdog looking to shock the world again. Bubba Jenkins has dominated his way to the top seed using his wrestling attack that has smothered solid opponents like Chris Wade, whom he had previously lost to. Jesus Pinedo shocked the world with a massive upset knockout over last year's champion Brendan Loughnane his last time out; he is a solid striker with a long reach and power in his hands.
I like Jenkins here, as he has looked phenomenal this season with his unstoppable ground game and improved standup.
Pick: Jenkins O/U: Over 2.5 -188
The top seed at Light Heavyweight takes on his toughest test this season in the co-main event. Josh Silveira is a quick finisher with an interesting skillset for the weight class, posing a significant submission and knockout threat early. Ty Flores enters the playoffs after grinding out a couple of decision wins in his first PFL season using his solid cardio and wrestling game.
I’ll pick Silveira to find an early finish here, although this price tag is far too much for me to consider betting him here.
Pick: Silveira O/U: Under 1.5 -140
An undefeated up-and-comer tests his skills against a veteran of the game in this Featherweight semi-final. Gabriel Alves Braga had an interesting season getting a close decision win over Jesus Pinedo to start and then finishing Marlon Moraes early to secure his position. Chris Wade steps in here after a very impressive showing against Ryoji Kudo to end his season; he is a very well-rounded veteran who has competed at the highest level of competition and had some success.
I’ve got Wade in this one, as despite being a replacement, he is the far more experienced fighter and is coming off one of his best performances.
Pick: Wade O/U: Over 2.5 -220
Good stylistic matchup here in our first semi-final at Light Heavyweight. Marthin Hamlet enters this one off two dominant displays of his grappling ability, most recently with a decision win over Sam Kei to secure his second seed here. Impa Kasanganay looks to extend his win streak to four here after looking very sharp in his PFL run showing his well-roundedness with wins by knockout and submission this year alone.
I like Kasanganay here as I believe he has the ground game to keep this fight upright and use his striking to pick apart Hamlet and get the win.
Pick: Kasanganay O/U: Under 2.5 +125
Lightweights kick off the main card. Elvin Espinoza is an undefeated finisher who has passed every test he has been given with ease showing comfort on the ground and in the striking. Kenoi Diggs makes his PFL debut here after a solid run in Bellator; he has a nice submission game; his only career losses are split decisions to this point.
I lean with Espinoza here as I give him an edge in the striking, and he can keep the grappling close if not win there as well.
Pick: Espinoza O/U: Under 2.5 +150