PFL vs. Bellator Odds Breakdown

PFL vs. Bellator Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
February 24, 2024|

The PFL begins a new era tomorrow as they will put their 2023 season champions up against the champions from Bellator on this massive PPV event headlined by Heavyweights Renan Ferreira -129 and Ryan Bader +109 competing for the opportunity to face superstar Francis Ngannou in his PFL debut. I went over the main card, which is loaded with fantastic matchups, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by accurate as of 2/23/2024 6:20 PM EST

Renan Ferreira -129 vs. Ryan Bader +109

Heavyweight champions clash here with an even larger opportunity waiting in the wings. Renan Ferreira is an athletic freak with insane power, not to mention he is as big a human being as there is in MMA right now, although his ground game is bad, which has kept him from dominating as many thought he would. Ryan Bader is back after a year away, and it's tough to know what we're getting here as he has competed at the highest level of the sport and shown a well-rounded game, but at this age with seemingly already declining durability, there are concerns.

I'll take Bader as the underdog as I see him having a massive advantage in the grappling, although I don't mind a play on Ferreira to get an early knockout, as that is also possible.

Pick: Bader O/U: Under 1.5 -160


Impa Kasanganay +300 vs. Johnny Eblen -400

Middleweight showdown here that features the PFL Light Heavyweight champ back at his natural weight against one of the best in the world. Impa Kasanganay became one of the best stories in MMA this year by bouncing back from his UFC exit to win the PFL Light Heavyweight title and the million dollars that came with it; he did so using a well-rounded game with fast striking and good defense. Johnny Eblen is an unbeaten beast from the famous American Top Team gym, where he developed a dominant wrestling game that includes vicious ground and pound.

I see Eblen dominating here, and with two of Kasanganay's losses coming by knockout, I think there is value on Eblen to win via TKO/KO at +350.

Pick: Eblen O/U: Under 2.5 +175

Ray Cooper III +425 vs. Jason Jackson -600

This will be a Catchweight fight between a former PFL champion and the current Bellator Welterweight king. Ray Cooper III is a tank of a man with massive power, although he can be taken down and controlled as he was in his last fight against Derek Brunson, and he has had trouble with weight lately. Jason Jackson is coming off an enormous upset win over the previously undefeated Yaroslav Amosov, where he showed he is a well-rounded machine who can strike and grapple with elite talent.

I like Jackson to win a decision here, as Cooper is tough but outmatched. With the prices so close, it may be smarter to play the fight to go the distance rather than Jackson's decision prop to avoid any judging issues.

Pick: Jackson O/U: Over 2.5 -150


Bruno Cappelozza +300 vs. Vadim Nemkov -400

The Bellator Light Heavyweight champion moves to Heavyweight here to challenge a former PFL season winner. Bruno Cappelozza returns after his last fight was overturned when he tested positive for a banned substance; he did show his knockout power in that fight by finishing Matheus Scheffel after losing him in his previous fight. Vadim Nemkov has looked very good during his run as Bellator champ, learning from the great Fedor Emelianeko. He has nine wins and no losses since joining the organization, using his slick striking and decent submission game to dominate his opponents.

I've got Nemkov here as he will have a significant speed advantage, and I also trust him more durability-wise.

Pick: Nemkov O/U: Over 1.5 -115

Thiago Santos +100 vs. Yoel Romero -120

Light Heavyweight veterans will face off in a matchup made for the fans. Thiago Santos is a powerful kickboxer who has struggled with knee issues that have slowed him down. Yoel Romero keeps going here at age forty-six; he has an Olympic wrestling background and explosive striking, although he has been known to throw very low volume in many of his fights.

I'll go with Santos to get a decision, as he will likely be the more active guy here, but Romero is still incredibly durable.

Pick: Santos O/U: Over 2.5 -240


Clay Collard +225 vs. AJ McKee -265

Lightweights who know how to put on a show will open the main card in this can't-miss clash. Clay Collard is a high-volume striker capable of setting an unmatchable pace with his hands; strong grapplers have controlled him, but he has proven challenging to submit or damage from those positions. AJ McKee has a phenomenal skillset with a great submission game that he used to defeat Patricio Pitbull and many others, along with an excellent striking game at a distance.

I'll pick McKee, but at this price, it's a clear pass from a betting perspective; if McKee doesn't succeed in the grappling, this could be a wild matchup.

Pick: McKee O/U: Over 2.5 -210

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