UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
March 01, 2024|

The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, headlined by two fast finishers at Heavyweight, with Jairzinho Rozenstruik +152 taking on Shamil Gaziev -177. I went over the entire card and gave my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 3/1/2024 12:45 PM EST

Jairzinho Rozenstruik +152 vs. Shamil Gaziev -177

Fast-finishing Heavyweights get the main event spotlight here. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a credentialed kickboxer whose knockout power has ended several fights early in the first round; his ground game has been a weak point, with Jailton Almeida getting a quick finish and Curtis Blaydes beating him as well. Shamil Gaziev makes just his second UFC appearance here after a dominant debut against Martin Buday, where he was able to dominate the fight, causing severe damage and eventually securing the stoppage.

I'll take Gaziev here as he has the grappling upside and seemed to have improved his cardio in his last outing, although I would not be confident betting on either side.

Pick: Gaziev O/U: Under 1.5 -175


Vitor Petrino -300 vs. Tyson Pedro +250

Light Heavyweights who like to end things inside the distance square off in this one. Vitor Petrino is a physical monster with crazy power and cardio, along with a developing ground game, although he is very reckless and not the most polished on the ground. Tyson Pedro has been an interesting career to watch as he has been able to destroy lower-level opponents, but it's been a mixed bag when facing tougher competition; he has solid striking and a good ground game, but his cardio is a serious issue.

I'm going to take a shot on Pedro as the underdog here as I think he is very live early in the fight to score a submission, so I will play that prop, which can be found for prices over +1000.

Pick: Pedro O/U: Under 1.5 +115

Alex Perez +285 vs. Muhammad Mokaev -350

Another step up here for a young Flyweight contender as he faces a former title challenger here. Alex Perez has struggled to get into the octagon in recent years with weight and injury issues, and the last two times he has fought, he was submitted in the first round. Muhammad Mokaev remains active here as he looks to continue his undefeated streak with another finish; he has shown a very active ground game that he uses to find fight-ending opportunities well.

I've got Mokaev here as I see him using his ground game to control Perez and eventually find a submission.

Pick: Mokaev O/U: Under 2.5 -125


Umar Nurmagomedov -1100 vs. Bekzat Almakhan +725

An interesting matchup at Bantamweight sees a potential future title challenger take on an unknown debutant. Umar Nurmagomedov has had difficulty finding a fight after showing incredible skill so far in his UFC run, having earned several submissions and a knockout over Raoni Barcelos. Bekzat Almakhan takes on this massive challenge, having shown an excellent striking game on the regional scene against a relatively high level of competition.

Nurmagomedov should dominate here, as although Almakhan is alright, he is nowhere near the level he will need to be to compete in this one.

Pick: Nurmagomedov O/U: Under 1.5 +152

Matt Schnell +357 vs. Steve Erceg -457

Action is expected in this Flyweight matchup. Matt Schnell is an absolute dog, as he is willing to take damage and get into firefights, although he is at his best when he can get opponents to the ground. Steve Erceg looks to enter the top ten here after showing a well-rounded game in his first two UFC appearances, both of which are wins over quality opposition.

I like Erceg to get a finish here as Schnell is not very durable and Erceg will be putting pressure on him all fight.

Pick: Erceg O/U: Under 1.5 +100


Eryk Anders -525 vs. Jamie Pickett +400

Middleweights looking to return to the win column will go head-to-head to open the main card. Eryk Anders is a powerful and strong guy who is very good at controlling his opponents against the cage and landing big strikes; he can look slow at times and doesn't have the best cardio. Jamie Pickett has had a rough UFC run, having lost four straight with three coming inside the distance; he has a long reach that he tries to use to keep opponents at range.

I'll pick Anders here, as it is tough to see Pickett succeed against a much stronger opponent. I also like the over in this one, as I don't see either fighter getting a finish.

Pick: Anders O/U: Over 2.5 -145

Javid Basharat -800 vs. Aieman Zahabi +550

Bantamweights are looking to extend their win streaks. Javid Basharat enters this undefeated, having shown a very slick grappling game, although he lacks much finishing ability with his first three UFC fights going to decision. Aieman Zahabi comes into this, having won three straight after many had thought he was not UFC level early in his career after losing two straight; he has gotten back on track mainly using his strong counterstriking game, which has proven lethal.

I'll go with Basharat to get a decision, but this price makes him completely unplayable.

Pick: Basharat O/U: Over 2.5 -210


Christian Leroy Duncan -325 vs. Claudio Ribeiro +275

This is a fantastic matchup at Middleweight as two fighters with very fun styles go head to head. Christian Leroy Duncan is an athletic and powerful striker with an unorthodox style. Claudio Ribeiro is a wild and powerful striker with serious fight-ending power, although his defense and durability are concerns, with him having been knocked out in two of his last three.

I give Duncan a slight edge across the board here as I see him as the better striker, grappler, more durable, and having better cardio, so I'll pick him. Although if Ribeiro fights smart, Duncan is very beatable with his awkward style, leaving openings.

Pick: Duncan O/U: Over 1.5 -115

Vinicius Oliveira -133 vs. Benardo Sopaj +113

A short-notice change of opponents gives us this matchup at Bantamweight. Vinicius Oliveira comes in off a fast and impressive knockout on Dana White's Contender Series, showing his dangerous speed and power. Benardo Sopaj makes his debut here, and there is reason to be excited about him as he has shown absolute dynamite in his hands, entering on a three-fight finish streak, including the last two in the first round.

I lean towards Sopaj here as I like what I have seen from him, and although it is short notice, he has been preparing for a scheduled fight anyway, so he should be in good shape.

Pick: Sopaj O/U: Under 1.5 +120


Ludovit Klein -1000 vs. AJ Cunningham +700

This is a short-notice clash here at Lightweight. Ludovit Klein has improved during his time in the UFC, now having impressive wins over Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes, where he showed his powerful striking and good wrestling. AJ Cunningham steps in here, and he is a tough brawler who trains with Bryce Mitchell, although I don't believe he is very high level, having been completely dominated on Dana White's Contender Series, showing a severe lack of head movement and defense.

Klein should dominate here as he has proven himself to be a legitimate talent in the deep Lightweight division, and I don't believe Cunningham is at the UFC level.

Pick: Klein O/U: Under 1.5 -125

Loik Radzhabov +154 vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -179

Lightweights will kick off the card with this fun clash. Loik Radzhabov looks to bounce back after a knockout loss to Mateusz Rebecki; he is a solid wrestler, although he lacks much finishing ability against high-level opponents, as shown during his PFL run. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady is coming off a big and impressive upset over George Hardwick on the Contender's Series, where he showed a high pace kickboxing style.

I'll go with Al-Selwady to get a decision win here, as I expect him to be able to defend the grappling and have the higher output.

Pick: Al-Selwady O/U: Over 2.5 -160


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett Over 2.5 -120

Muhammad Mokaev + Umar Nurmagomedov -167

Tyson Pedro Submission +1400

All of your weekly MMA updates in one place.
Keeping up to date with combat sports news can take up a lot of time, so we’re simplifying the process by bringing the most important stories directly to you. We read the internet all week and then summarize what you need to know in 3-4 minutes.
Enter your email to sign up for the OverUnder newsletter. The first email newsletter in MMA.
By subscribing, you will receive a weekly MMA newsletter from Verdict MMA. You can unsubscribe at any time.