Sleeper Fight of the Week: Alex Perez vs Manel Kape

Sleeper Fight of the Week: Alex Perez vs Manel Kape

Benjamin Zeltser|
March 24, 2023|
2

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen takes place this Saturday in San Antonio, Texas, with plenty of exciting bouts that will alter the direction of several fighters’ careers. Away from the main event, one of the most exciting fights will be between two fighters entrenched in the UFC flyweight rankings, between Dana White’s Contender Series product Alex Perez and Manel Kape.

So where is Manel Kape from? The UFC flyweight hails from Angola but represents Portugal, where he spent much of his life. We’ve seen Manel Kape vs Alexandre Pantoja and Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau, and now we will finally see Manel Kape vs Alex Perez. Manel Kape came to the UFC with more hype than almost any other flyweight prospect, coming in as the RIZIN bantamweight champion. Kape is as dangerous as they come, racking up finishes against former UFC contenders like Ian McCall and Takeya Mizugaki on his way to the octagon. Unfortunately, as many newcomers do, Kape would start on the wrong foot with two consecutive losses in the UFC against two top-ranking fighters in the division. Although Kape is a finisher, Manel Kape vs Alexandre Pantoja would go the full distance. Given that Alexandre Pantoja’s next fight will be against champion Brandon Moreno, it was reassuring to see that Kape could hang with the best fighters in the division.

Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne ended in the first round, with Kape putting him away via knockout. Photo by ESPN.
Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne ended in the first round, with Kape putting him away via knockout. Photo by ESPN.

Manel Kape’s next fight would age like fine wine. Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau went to a close split decision that many scored for Kape, but Nicolau ultimately took the victory. Still, as Matheus Nicolau’s stock rises, so does Kape. Matheus Nicolau’s next fight comes against Brandon Royval in a potential title eliminator. Following this close fight, Ode Osbourne vs Manel Kape would be next. While Kape was a more significant favorite for this fight than his previous ones, fans were starting to wonder if “Starboy” really did have a place in the UFC. Many Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne predictions had Osbourne pulling out the upset performance, but Kape would finally return to his winning ways, finishing Osbourne with a flying knee in the first round.

Manel Kape would fight Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his next fight, and just as he did in his last fight, Kape finished Zhumagulov late in the first round. After that, Kape gained traction, and a Su Mudaerji vs Manel Kape fight was scheduled. Unfortunately, this fight would eventually fall through due to a positive test for a Turinabol metabolite on Kape’s side. Still, he would return late last December to beat David Dvorák and solidify his spot amongst the elite at 125.

Manel Kape facing off against David Dvorak. He won the fight via unanimous decision. Photo by MMA Junkie.
Manel Kape facing off against David Dvorak. He won the fight via unanimous decision. Photo by MMA Junkie.

California’s Alex Perez has the unique distinction of being the first Dana White’s Contender Series product to fight for a UFC title. Eight fights into his UFC flyweight division run, Perez would fight Deiveson Figueiredo to become the UFC flyweight champion. Unfortunately, Perez would be submitted in the first round, but he should be praised for having gone on a 6-1 run to get to the championship fight.

Perez has struggled to find his way into the octagon since this loss, having only fought once since then against Alexandre Pantoja. Perez would also be submitted in the first round of this fight, but he was supposed to fight Askar Askarov two weeks before that, so other factors could have been at play regarding the quality of his performance. For one reason or another, Alex Perez has had eight scheduled fights canceled since 2020, so it will be a moral victory when he makes the walk this Saturday. At 31 years old, Perez is entering his fighting prime as he looks to get back on a winning streak.

Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez ended via leg kick TKO. Photo by ESPN.
Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez ended via leg kick TKO. Photo by ESPN.

Alex Perez prefers to keep the fight at a distance, utilizing lethal leg kicks that earned him a first-round TKO against Jussier Formiga in 2020. If opponents enter the pocket against him, he usually opts to change levels and utilize his high-level grappling skills. However, Perez has run into issues with being overly optimistic in the grappling approach, so he will look to improve his decision-making regarding where he wants to keep the fight.

Manel Kape is more of an out-and-out striker. He loves to mix crazy techniques and keep an unpredictable flow on the feet, utilizing his power and athleticism to outclass fighters in the striking department. Kape’s power keeps grapplers from shooting sloppy takedowns on him, and his strong takedown defense will also work to his advantage. “Starboy” has been more gun-shy in his UFC fights than he was in his run fighting for RIZIN, which could partially be attributed to the weight cut to 125. However, at 5’5”, Kape knows that flyweight is his division for the foreseeable future, so he will look to increase the volume against Perez. Tune into the main card to catch this banger that will decide who edges closer to becoming a UFC flyweight champion.

Alex Perez is excited to make his octagon return. Photo by Jeff Bottari, Zuffa LLC.
Alex Perez is excited to make his octagon return. Photo by Jeff Bottari, Zuffa LLC.

ODDS AND BETTING

Manel Kape is a -180 favorite, having been a favorite in all his UFC fights. Alex Perez is a +155 underdog, his third time as the underdog in a row (he went 0-2 in these fights). Here are my best bets for this fight:

Total Rounds – Under 2.5: -175 Manel Kape ML: -180 Manel Kape to Win by Decision: +330 Alex Perez to Win by Submission or Decision: +275

UPDATE: Alex Perez vs Manel Kape has been canceled. Alex Perez pulled out just before the fight.

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