Odds provided by Stake.com are accurate as of 9:00 AM EST 4/27/2023

Yadong Song -105 vs. Ricky Simon -120

The new main event at Bantamweight has two battle-tested contenders ready to prove they belong in the title conversation. Yadong Song is a powerful boxer with very clean counters; however, he has struggled in the UFC when forced to grapple frequently. Ricky Simon has quietly been competing with top Bantamweights for years now, having broken out in his last performance with a dominant win over highly touted Jack Shore, where he showed power in his hands and strength in his wrestling.

I’ll take Simon here as he has the wrestling advantage and cardio for days, making me think five rounds favor him.

Pick: Simon O/U: Over 4.5 +108

Caio Borralho -370 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +265

Clash of styles here at Middleweight. Caio Borralho has demonstrated impressive skills and athleticism so far in his UFC run with a smothering ground game. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a hard hitter who has looked good since moving down in weight, but his grappling is bad, as he has been immediately taken down in several fights.

I’ve got Borralho to finish this one, as his edge in grappling is so large, and his control time should eventually lead to a submission or ground-and-pound victory.

Pick: Borralho O/U: Under 2.5 -175

Cody Brundage +195 vs. Rodolfo Viera -256

Two different types of grapplers meet here in a wrestler vs. jiu-jitsu practitioner matchup at Middleweight. Cody Brundage has shown he is a solid wrestler with enough power to knock out Tresean Gore, but I am not overly impressed by his fight IQ and durability. Rodolfo Viera is a phenomenal submission artist, and despite his struggles of late, he remains capable of submitting anyone and showed development in the striking against Chris Curtis.

I like Viera to get an early submission here as he has competed with fighters who are much higher level than Brundage on the mat and dominated them.

Pick: Viera O/U: Under 1.5 -112

Julian Erosa -139 vs. Fernando Padilla +110

High-pace action is expected in this Featherweight firefight. Julian Erosa is a wild fighter with tremendous cardio and an aggressive grappling attack; however, his durability is a major concern, with him having been finished multiple times. Fernando Padilla makes his debut after some time off; he appears to be an aggressive striker who attacks submission off the ground but can be controlled and outpaced.

I’ll pick Erosa here as I believe he is the better fighter all around with more experience; the only reason I feel he is not a larger favorite is durability concerns.

Pick: Erosa O/U: Over 2.5 +126

Waldo Cortes-Acosta +147 vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -189

Heavyweight brawlers open the main card here. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has shown he can box during his UFC run, although he has taken leg kicks frequently and has yet to demonstrate much of a ground game. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a powerful kickboxer, although he sometimes struggles to keep up the pace.

I’ll lean with de Lima here, but as his price gets steeper and steeper, I am less interested in betting on this fight, especially with it at Heavyweight.

Pick: de Lima O/U: Over 1.5 -147

Josh Quinlan -189 vs. Trey Waters +145

Fun matchup here between intriguing prospects to watch at Welterweight. Josh Quinlan has proven to be a dangerous finisher with powerful boxing. Trey Waters comes into this just weeks off a comeback win for the LFA title, where he was able to knock out Jalin Fuller; he is very tall for the weight class and has never gone the distance in his pro career.

I’ve got Quinlan in this one as he has had the time to properly prepare for this matchup, while Waters is coming off a tough fight not long ago.

Pick: Quinlan O/U: Under 1.5 -125

Martin Buday -110 vs. Jake Collier -115

Solid clash of Heavyweights in this matchup. Martin Buday is a grueling fighter to face as he uses his size and grappling ability to wear opponents down. Jake Collier is a well-rounded fighter with decent hands and a good submission game for the division.

I’ll lean with Buday mostly because it is difficult for me to pick Collier after his last fight against Chris Barnett, but I see no value in betting on either side at this price.

Pick: Buday O/U: Over 2.5 -135

Cody Durden +114 vs. Charles Johnson -145

Great matchup at Flyweight here on the prelims. Cody Durden is a great wrestler for the weight class, although lesser grapplers have caught him in submissions. Charles Johnson has been one of the most active fighters in the UFC this year, and he has shown some improvements in his grappling, although that is still his weak point, with his strong suit being his tremendous cardio.

I like Durden here as the underdog, so I took him to win by decision, as Johnson has never been finished, but I also played Johnson by submission as the number is wide, and this is a very possible outcome.

Pick: Durden O/U: Over 2.5 -208

Stephanie Egger -312 vs. Irina Alekseeva +235

The veteran takes on the newcomer in this Bantamweight matchup. Stephanie Egger is an aggressive grappler, with her last four fights ending inside the distance. Irina Alekseeva enters this matchup with minimal high-level experience, although we know she is a capable grappler.

I’m picking Egger here, and I think she finishes this fight as she has with other matchups which were not ranked-caliber opponents.

Pick: Egger O/U: Under 2.5 +120

Journey Newson vs. Marcus McGhee

Short notice change here at a Catchweight of 140Ibs. Journey Newson is a striker who throws a lot of unnecessary kicks and has struggled with an unimpressive UFC schedule. Marcus McGhee makes his debut here with plenty of knockout finishes on his record, although he has not fought much real competition and has only been competing professionally since 2020.

I went into this matchup wanting to bet against Newson as he has not impressed me during his time in the UFC, but I need more than this price and opponent.

Pick: Newson O/U: Under 2.5

Hailey Cowan +119 vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth -152

Debuting Women's Bantamweights clash to start the card here. Hailey Cowan makes another attempt at her debut here after two fight-week fallouts. Jamey-Lyn Horth enters this matchup unbeaten, with all finishes on her impressive record, including knockouts and submissions.

I’ll pick Horth here, but with very little information on this fight, I am not eager to bet on either side.

Pick: Horth O/U: Over 2.5 -204

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Ricky Simon -115

Julian Erosa -127

Caio Borralho Inside the Distance -120

Rodolfo Viera Submission -125

Cody Durden by Decision +260

Charles Johnson Submission +700