Verdict MMA

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson has once again made headlines, and this time it’s for all the wrong reasons. As reported by TMZ, the former UFC interim lightweight champion was arrested on Sunday for charges of DUI in Hollywood, California. It’s alleged that he crashed his truck into two cars parked outside of a nightclub in the early hours of the morning.
 
The incident occurred when Ferguson reportedly refused to take a field sobriety test, and he is now facing misdemeanor DUI charges along with other potential charges. Reports have also suggested that he was “very uncooperative” during the arrest, which resulted in the truck being flipped on its side.

[Video footage](https://twitter.com/shannonsharpeee/status/1655238710152302593?s=20) has emerged from the scene, which shows a tow truck operator working to flip Ferguson’s overturned truck back onto all four wheels. One of the cars that were reportedly damaged belongs to a rapper named Cash Gotti, who came outside to find his Mercedes likely totaled.

This isn’t the first negative incident relating to Tony Ferguson, as in 2019, his wife filed a restraining order against him citing concerns around his mental health. Ferguson claimed that he was being tracked through a chip inserted into his body during surgery, which led to his wife filing an order. She did, however, drop it the following month.

Ferguson has been on a losing streak, having lost his last five straight fights. After winning nine post-fight bonuses in nine fights, including a double bonus for a win over Edson Barboza, Ferguson couldn’t match this success after being stripped of his interim lightweight title due to injury. He suffered losses to Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Michael Chandler with a vicious front kick, and a submission loss to Nate Diaz in September 2021.

Tony Ferguson Arrested for DUI after Flipping Over His Truck

Douglas Vegas Bets

It was a fantastic performance from the UFC Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja as he defended his title with a second-round submission win over Kai Asakura at UFC 310.

## Result: Alexandre Pantoja def. Kai Asakura via 2nd Round Submission/Rear-Naked-Choke (2:05)

From the very beginning of the fight, Pantoja was putting pressure on getting right in the face of Asakura, who nearly landed a flying knee very early but ended up on his back for most of the first round. The second round saw more pressure from Panoja, who eventually jumped on the back and quickly locked up the choke that ended the fight.


>"That's the UFC level" - Alexandre Pantoja

What did you think of Pantoja's performance? Let us know in the comments.

Alexandre Pantoja Dominates Kai Asakura at UFC 310 to Defend Title

In a battle of undefeated Welterweights, Shavkat Rakhomonov came out on top after five rounds against Ian Machado Garry in the UFC 310 co-main event.

## Result: Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Ian Machado Garry via Unanimous Decision (48-47 x 3)

The first few rounds saw a lot of clinching, with very few significant strikes landing, although it was clear Rakhmonov was getting the better of the exchanges. The third round saw Garry have success striking from range, landing a lot of hard kicks on Rakhmonov's legs and body. In the fourth round, Rakhmonov secured a takedown for the first time in the fight, where he would go on to control most of the round and land some shots from the top. The final round saw Garry take the back and nearly lock in a rear naked choke several times before Rakhmonov escaped and forced a clinch until the final bell.


>"Belal, come here and face off" - Shavkat Rakhmonov

What did you think of the fight? Let us know in the comments.

Shavkat Rakhmonov Wins Close Fight With Ian Garry at UFC 310

It was a controversial decision in the rematch between top-ranked Heavyweights as Ciryl Gane got the split-decision victory over Alexander Volkov on the main card of UFC 310.

## Result: Ciryl Gane def. Alexander Volkov via Split-Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

The first round saw back-and-forth action, with each man having some striking success and getting some time on top, although some submission attempts may have swung the round to Gane. Early in the second round, Volkov landed a huge spinning back fist that rocked Gane in the standout moment of a relatively close round. The final round saw Volkov take top position after Gane attempted a kimura and refused to let go, seemingly costing him the fight.


>"I am not happy with this fight" - Ciryl Gane

What did you think of the judging? Let us know in the comments.

Ciryl Gane Wins Controversial Decision at UFC 310

It was announced on the broadcast of UFC 310 that the headliners for UFC 312 from Sydney, Australia, will be a Middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland in a rematch of their split decision clash from UFC 297. The co-main event will be a Strawweight title fight between Zhang Weili and undefeated Tatiana Suarez.

This will be the second title defense for Dricus Du Plessis, who submitted Israel Adesanya in Australia with a rear naked choke in the fourth round of his last fight. Sean Strickland enters this one off a split-decision win over former title challenger Paulo Costa, which was enough to earn him a rematch here, with the first fight being so close.

As for the other title fight on the card, Zhang Weili will look to continue to dominate the division, with her last defense coming against Yan Xioanan at UFC 300. She will take on the undefeated Tatiana Suarez, who earned this shot with a second-round submission of former champion Jessica Andrade.

What do you think of these matchups? Let us know in the comments!

UFC 312 Main and Co-Main Event Confirmed

The UFC holds its final PPV card of the year this weekend from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, headlined by Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defending his title against Japanese newcomer Kai Asakura along with a Welterweight Co-Main featuring undefeated stars Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Garry going head to head. I went over that matchup and every other fight on this stacked card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

**Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 12/2/2024**

## Alexandre Pantoja -263 vs. Kai Asakura +210

The Flyweight title is on the line in our main event as a new challenger arrives from a different organization. Alexandre Pantoja has dominated the division for years with a ridiculous amount of wins against top ten opponents, having used his insane pressure mixed with world-class grappling and a granite chin to break every fighter across from him. Kai Asakura joins the UFC as the Rizin champion known for his exciting style and dangerous knockout power, although he has lost when facing UFC-caliber opposition before, like Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.

I like Pantoja here as he is the much superior grappler with the defensive skills and durability to avoid allowing the big shots from Asakura to change the fight.

Prediction: Pantoja by 2nd Round Submission

## Shavkat Rakhmonov -370 vs. Ian Garry +280

Undefeated Welterweights are looking to lay claim to the next shot at Belal Muhammad's title clash in this incredible co-main event matchup. Shavkat Rakhmonov is an absolute monster who is massive for the division while having finished every opponent he has ever faced using his powerful and technical striking along with a deadly submission attack. Ian Garry is a highly skilled striker who showed his well-rounded game last time out as he used his ground game to take down Michael 'Venom' Page.

I'm taking Garry at these odds, as he has the skills to keep Rakhmonov at a distance and win a striking battle while controlling the range using his straight shots.

Prediction: Garry by Decision

## Ciryl Gane -345 vs. Alexander Volkov +265

Rematch here at Heavyweight between two top contenders looking to enter the conversation for a shot at the title. Ciryl Gane is a fast kickboxer with great movement for the division, although his ground game remains a serious concern, with Francis Ngannou taking him down repeatedly and Jon Jones quickly subbing him. Alexander Volkov looks for revenge here after winning his last four fights, with three coming by way of finish, having shown he is more than a striker with a submission win over Tai Tuivasa.

I got Gane getting it done again here, as I see him still being the much cleaner striker, and I don't see the grappling becoming enough of a factor to change the last result.

Prediction: Gane by Decision

## Bryce Mitchell -667 vs. Kron Gracie +450

Featherweight grapplers collide here with classic wrestling, taking on a legendary family member in the Jiu-Jitsu world. Bryce Mitchell returns after a year off since his brutal knockout loss to Josh Emmett, looking to show that his wrestling is still a threat to the top of the division, as he did in his wins over Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. Kron Gracie is an incredibly dangerous submission artist who will look to rebound from back-to-back losses here after struggling to get opponents to the ground with him in his last two games against Charles Jourdain and Cub Swanson.

I'll take the chance on Gracie here as although his last performances don't inspire confidence, Mitchell has a style that will play into Gracie's strengths on the ground, and at this price, I will go with Gracie to catch Mitchell in a submission.

Prediction: Gracie by 1st Round Submission

## Nate Landwehr -143 vs. Doo Ho Choi +117

Featherweights, both known for putting on a show, open the main card here in this explosive matchup. Nate Landwehr is an always entertaining fighter with decent kickboxing and solid submission skills as well, although he is very hittable on the feet, as David Onama and Herbert Burns made him pay for. Doo Ho Choi is a powerful and technical boxer who hasn't been consistently active, but when he does get in the cage, he gets results as he did last time out by becoming just the second man to finish Bill Algeo with strikes. 

I like Choi here as he is the much cleaner and harder-hitting striker who I see hurting Landwehr and avoiding grappling before eventually finding a knockout finish.

Prediction: Choi by 2nd Round KO

## Anthony Smith +260 vs. Dominick Reyes -333

Former title challengers square off here at Light Heavyweight. Anthony Smith is a well-rounded fighter, and he showed solid submission skills against Vitor Petrino, although his cardio and pace have been bad lately, especially in his loss to Roman Dolidze. Dominick Reyes bounced back in his last fight by scoring a first-round knockout over Dustin Jacoby, showing he still has the power that once brought him as close as any man has been to beating Jon Jones before he suffered several knockout losses in a row.

Reyes looked sharp against Jacoby and proved that the power is still in his hands, while I question if there is anything left in Anthony Smith after watching his recent fights, so I'll go with Reyes to get another knockout win here.

Prediction: Reyes by 1st Round TKO

## Vicente Luque +136 vs. Themba Gorimbo -167

Dangerous Welterweights go head to head in this interesting matchup. Vicente Luque is a violent finisher who has struggled recently since a brutal beat down from Geoff Neal, although at his best, he remains a powerful puncher with a nasty submission game. Themba Gorimbo steps in for a big opportunity here after a couple of wins over Ramiz Brahimaj and Niko Price, where he used his decent control grappling to get the decision. 

I've got Luque here, as even in his current form, I believe he should be the favorite over a fighter like Gorimbo, who has not impressed me so far in his UFC run.

Prediction: Luque by 2nd Round TKO

## Movsar Evloev -263 vs. Aljamain Sterling +210

Featherweight grapplers, each near the top of the line for a title shot, face off in this fantastic prelim clash. Movsar Evloev is an undefeated grappler with an impressive skill set, as he has shown in wins over tough opponents like Dan Ige, Diego Lopes, and Arnold Allen. Aljamain Sterling looks to continue his run for a second title here after a win over Calvin Kattar in his debut at this weight proved that his strength and grappling skills translated up a division.

I'm going with Evloev to get another decision here as I see him as the better striker with the grappling skills to nullify Sterling or have his own success there.

Prediction: Evloev by Decision (Best Bet)

## Randy Brown +180 vs. Bryan Battle -227

Must see matchup here between two showmen at Welterweight. Randy Brown is a slick striker with a long reach for the division that he uses well offensively, although his defense leaves much to be desired as his hands are often down, and his chin is not very good. Bryan Battle has begun to make noise in the division as he is coming off what should be four stoppage wins in a row, showing the ability to drown opponents with his pressure on the feet or take them out early like he did with Takashi Sato and Gabe Green.

I like Battle to get another finish here, as he has been on a roll and will not give Brown the space he likes to operate with, which I believe will lead to him landing a big shot and finishing the fight.

Prediction: Battle by 2nd Round TKO

## Chris Weidman -110 vs. Eryk Anders -111

After a last-minute cancellation a few weeks ago, Middleweights will meet now. Chris Weidman is a gritty wrestler who worked hard to return from his gruesome leg injury several years ago. Eryk Anders is a tough veteran who has ground out some tough wins, including his last fight, where he came back against Jamie Pickett.

I'll go with Weidman as his wrestling is still good enough that he will have an advantage or, at the very least, be able to nullify Anders there, and the striking is close, but I give Weidman the edge after seeing Anders dropped in his last fight.

Prediction: Weidman by Decision

## Cody Durden +128 vs. Joshua Van -156

Fun to watch Flyweights, who have been calling each other's names for some time now, square off in this one. Cody Durden is a very active wrestler coming off a finish over Matt Schnell and a loss to Bruno Silva, where he looked incredible until he was finished. Joshua Van is a young up-and-comer with a fun style that has produced some exciting wins, as it did at the Sphere in his wild fight with Edgar Chairez.

I lean towards Van here as although Durden may have a grappling advantage, I give Van the finishing upside, and he is younger, meaning he is more likely to improve his game.

Prediction: Van by 3rd Round TKO

## Michael Chiesa +108 vs. Max Griffin -133

Veteran Welterweights look to show they still have some in the tank here. Michael Chiesa is a strong wrestler who comes in off a first-round finish of Tony Ferguson, which was his first win since early 2021. Max Griffin is a powerful boxer who still has the skills to compete at a high level, as he showed in his loss to the highly touted Michael Morales when he gave the undefeated prospect a difficult time.

I'm taking Griffin here as Chiesa has not looked great since coming back from a major back injury, and Griffin still has the power to make him pay if he moves as slowly as he has looked.

Prediction: Griffin by 1st Round TKO

## Clay Guida +620 vs. Chase Hooper -1000

Lightweight grapplers from different generations battle here early on the prelims. Clay Guida is a gritty veteran with solid wrestling, although it is clear his best days are behind him at age forty-two with twenty-one finish losses. Chase Hooper has looked great since moving up to Lightweight, having shown his grappling skills are good enough and improving his striking enough to drop Viacheslav Borshchev, a credentialed kickboxer.

Hooper should be able to handle this test easily as he has Guida beat everywhere and is much younger and less weathered.

Prediction: Hooper by 2nd Round Submission

## Kennedy Nzechukwu -556 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +390

Heavyweights open the card here. Kennedy Nzechukwu is a big brawler who makes a quick turnaround from his debut at this weight, where he finished Chris Barnett in the first round. Lukasz Brzeski has struggled to find consistent success in the UFC, having lost four of his five fights, having shown lackluster striking skills and not much grappling either.

This should be another easy win for Nzechukwu, although after seeing how he performed as this type of favorite against Ovince St. Preux, I would advise people to avoid adding him to their parlays.

Prediction: Nzechukwu by 1st Round KO

UFC 310 Odds Breakdown

The UFC heads to Macau this weekend, where the Galaxy Arena will host a stacked UFC card headlined by former champions Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo going head-to-head in a massive Bantamweight clash. I went over that matchup and every other fight on this loaded card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

**Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 11/20/2024**

## Petr Yan -303 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +235

This week's main event features two of the most violent Bantamweights on the roster as they clash with a potential title opportunity on the line. Petr Yan is one of the most skilled fighters in the sport, with elite boxing and a very underrated ground game that he has used to break fighters like Jose Aldo and Sean O'Malley. Deiveson Figueiredo is a deadly finisher who has been on a fantastic run since moving up in weight, with his most recent win coming over Marlon 'Chito' Vera in a showing where he demonstrated his power by dropping the famously durable Chito in the final round to seal the victory.

I like Yan to get this one done as he has the skills to match Figueiredo everywhere while being much younger and faster. I see Yan building into his game as he usually does and finishing Figueiredo in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Yan by 4th Round TKO

## Xiaonan Yan -208 vs. Tabatha Ricci +165

Top contending Strawweights battle here, looking to earn a shot at Weili Zhang's title. Xiaonan Yan is a long striker with big power for the division, although her grappling has often cost her fights with Carla Esparza and Zhang being able to take her down and hold her whenever they wanted. Tabatha Ricci is a grappler who comes into this one having won six of her last seven, showing much-improved striking compared to early in her career while still having the dangerous ground game she has been known for, although against good defensive wrestlers, she can struggle to get the fight to the floor.

I'm going with Ricci as the underdog here, as she has the grappling skills to give Yan trouble. I also always like betting against fighters coming off a loss in their first title opportunity, as it is often a big letdown, and it is not easy to regain motivation after.

Prediction: Ricci by Decision

## Kenan Song +150 vs. Muslim Salikhov -185

Veteran Welterweight strikers square off here in this fun matchup. Kenan Song is a tough boxer who has proven he still has what it takes to compete at this level with his recent wins over the young Rolando Bedoya and fellow veteran Ricky Glenn. Muslim Salikhov is a unique striker with diverse attacks that include spinning kicks as well as more traditional strikes, although his durability has faded over the years, with two of his last three losses being by knockout.

This is a tough fight to call, as I give Song a slight volume edge and Salikhov a slight power edge. I lean towards Song, with him being the underdog, but this is a pass from me.

Prediction: Song by Split-Decision

## Cong Wang -909 vs. Gabriella Fernandes +560

An exciting prospect gets her next test here at Flyweight. Cong Wang made noise in her debut with a quick highlight knockout to establish she has arrived and is looking to get on the fast track to the title with her past win over current champion Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. Gabriella Fernandes is a good kickboxer with solid submissions, although her wrestling has been a weak point in the past.

This is a good matchup for Wang as she is likely to get another chance to show off her credentialed kickboxing skills which will likely result in another strong performance.

Prediction: Wang by 1st Round KO

## Volkan Oezdemir +200 vs. Carlos Ulberg -250

Hard-hitting Light Heavyweights collide in this must-see matchup. Volkan Oezdemir is a veteran known for his deadly power, which he has proven is still there, with his last two wins coming by first-round knockout over Johnny Walker and Bogdan Guskov. Carlos Ulberg is a very clean kickboxer with devastating power that has helped him finish five straight opponents on his six-fight win streak, including a very fast finish over Alonzo Menifield his last time out.

I am very high on Ulberg and believe this is another good matchup for him as he will get the kickboxing match he likes and will have key advantages, including age, height, and reach.

Prediction: Ulberg by 1st Round KO 

## Ozzy Diaz +240 vs. Mingyang Zhang -313

A pair of Light Heavyweight knockout artists looking to make a name for themselves open the main card here. Ozzy Diaz makes his debut here, and excitement can be expected, with his last six fights ending by knockout and his only loss in that time coming to the well-established Joe Pyfer. Mingyan Zhang made a lot of noise early in his UFC career with two straight first-round knockout wins, which extended his finish streak to ten straight, all coming in the first round.

I feel this is a fight that could go either way as both men have big power and have been finished before, so I'll take the sizeable underdog in Diaz to catch Zhang and pull the upset.

Prediction: Diaz by 1st Round KO

## Su Young You -147 vs. Balgyn Jenisuly +120

This matchup will be the Bantamweight final for the Road to UFC. Su Young You is a very creative grappler with dangerous finishing skills on the ground, although he has had some close fights in the tournament, which raises concern. Balgyn Jenisuly is a well-rounded fighter who came back after losing on the last Road to UFC and is now a win away from making good on his second chance.

I lean towards Jenisuly here as I feel he is the more well-rounded fighter who will have striking success and can limit the grappling of You or have success with his own ground game.

Prediction: Jenisuly by Decision

## Kiru Sahota +100 vs. Dong Hoon Choi -122

Here we have the Flyweight final for the Road to UFC. Kiru Sahota is a long fighter for the division who uses his size well to keep opponents at the end of punches and kicks, although his defense also relies on that, with him leaning away and his chin exposed. Dong Hoon Choi comes into this one undefeated, having two fun fights on the Road to UFC so far, although both were close to coming down to split decisions, as he is very willing to take a shot to give one back.

I'll take the much bigger fighter here in Sahota as I see him using his reach to keep Choi on the outside and win the rounds.

Prediction: Sahota by Decision (Best Bet)

## Xiaocan Feng -333 vs. Ming Shi +255

This fight is the Strawweight final in the Road to UFC tournament. Xiaocan Feng is coming into this, having dominated the tournament using her size and skills on the ground, which have looked very impressive. Ming Shi is a decent grappler who is small for even the Strawweight division and has not faced much legit competition.

I like Feng here as she is much bigger and has looked absolutely dominant in this tournament. I believe she will get a finish and make her way to the UFC.

Prediction: Feng by 1st Round TKO

## Carlos Hernandez -200 vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +160

Intriguing matchup here at Flyweight between a tough veteran and an unbeaten newcomer. Carlos Hernandez is a fun fighter who has faced many tough tests thus far in his UFC career, showing a solid ground game and good volume striking, which almost helped him score a huge upset over Rei Tsuruya in his last fight. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel makes his debut here after winning the Road to UFC over a year ago; he is a fast finisher, although he has not faced any UFC-caliber opponents and went to a split decision in his first Road to UFC fight.

I'm going with the more experienced fighter here in Hernandez, as he has been historically durable and will be able to take the fight late, which will give him the advantage.

Prediction: Hernandez by Decision

## Lone'er Kavanagh -357 vs. Jose Ochoa +275

A highly touted prospect makes their UFC debut here at Flyweight. Lone'er Kavanagh is a highly touted prospect coming off an impressive win on Dana White's Contender Series, where he scored a highlight knockout to prove his Cage Warriors success was no fluke. Jose Ochoa is a pure finisher, with all seven of his pro fights ending in him finishing his opponents, six of them by knockout, although with that, he has never seen a third round or truly been tested in a fight yet.

Kavanagh should get this one done, as although Ochoa has proven dangerous, he has yet to do so against anyone nearly as experienced as Kavanagh. 

Prediction: Kavanagh by 3rd Round KO

## Long Xiao -122 vs. Quang Le +100

Bantamweights, each looking for their first UFC victory, go head-to-head in this one. Long Xiao is a fun fighter with a good chin who is willing to exchange punches recklessly, which he has gotten away with against the level of competition he has been competing, although when facing UFC caliber opposition like Cristian Quinonez or Chang Ho Lee, he has lost. Quang Le got a tough first assignment in the UFC against Chris Guttierez after coming up through the LFA, where he competed with and had success against solid competition, winning all seven fights with the promotion with his strong striking and submission skills.

I'll go with Le here as he has been tested against much tougher competition throughout his career, and I also feel he has better striking defense while both have power.

Prediction: Le by 3rd Round TKO

## Maheshate Hayisaer -204 vs. Nikolas Motta +165

Veteran strikers open the card here at Lightweight. Maheshate Hayisaer is a solid boxer with a powerful counter right hand, and he showed off with his win over Steve Garcia, which has aged well. Nikolas Motta is a tough striker coming off a big upset where he looked fantastic against Tom Nolan, although his wrestling is not very good, as Trey Ogden was able to hold him down with ease.

I lean toward Motta here, as his wrestling has been his weak point, and Hayisaer won't take advantage of that while being the lower-volume striker. Give me the underdog in a close fight where either man can land a knockout blow at any point.

Prediction: Motta by 2nd Round KO

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo Odds Breakdown

It was all Jon Jones from start to finish in the UFC 309 Main Event as the Heavyweight Champion defended his title with a knockout victory over Stipe Miocic.

## Result: Jon Jones def. Stipe Miocic via 3rd Round TKO (4:29)

The first round saw Jones land a nice trip and follow up with devastating ground and pound that Miocic seemingly had no answer for. The second saw Jones control the striking with nasty body kicks and solid boxing. The third round saw more domination from Jones until he landed a beautiful spinning kick to the body, sending Miocic crumbling to the ground to end the fight.


>"If everything goes right, maybe we'll give you guys what you want to see" - Jon Jones

What do you think should be next for Jones? Let us know in the comments!

Jon Jones Dominates Stipe Miocic to Defend Title at UFC 309

It was a five-round battle, but Charles Oliveira came out on top again in the end, earning a unanimous decision win over Michael Chandler in the UFC 309 Co-Main Event.

## Result: Charles Oliveira def. Michael Chandler via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)

The first four rounds were almost all Oliveira, as his grappling attack was just too much for Chandler, who was narrowly avoiding submissions the entire fight. The fifth round saw Chandler land a huge shot that wobbled Oliveira badly and nearly finished him with some ground and pound, although Oliveira survived to see the final bell.


>"He hits really hard" - Charles Oliveira

What did you think of the fight? Let us know in the comments!

Charles Oliveira Survives Late Scare to Win Decision at UFC 309

Bo Nickal took a big step up in competition when he took on Paul Craig on the UFC 309 main card, and despite having to go the distance for the first time in his career, he got the win to remain undefeated.

## Result: Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x 3)

Surprisingly, the fight was a striking match between the two grapplers, with Nickal swinging a big overhand and blasting low kicks. After three somewhat competitive rounds, Nickal was given a unanimous decision, winning all three rounds on every card.


>"I felt incredible tonight" - Bo Nickal

What did you think of the performance of the undefeated prospect? Let us know in the comments!

Bo Nickal Wins Decision Over Paul Craig at UFC 309

The UFC returns to the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York City for the annual PPV with this year's edition headlined by a Heavyweight battle years in the making between champion Jon Jones and former champion Stipe Miocic. Also on the card is a rematch between former Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and the always-exciting Michael Chandler! I went over those matchups and the rest of this stacked card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

**Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 11/13/2024**

## Jon Jones -625 vs. Stipe Miocic +440

Two legends who have been on a collision course for many years will finally meet here for the Heavyweight title. Jon Jones has a reputation as the greatest of all time, and for a reason, he has a near-flawless game with crafty striking and dominant wrestling, although he is off yet another long layoff, which hasn't seemed to be much of an issue for him in the past. Stipe Miocic is back after a very long layoff since his brutal knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in their rematch. Still, when he was active, he was a very skilled boxer with a solid ground game that helped him win and defend the Heavyweight title, a record three times before winning it back and defending it another time.

I can't go against Jones here, as he should have a speed advantage on the feet and a wrestling edge. He also looks to have settled into his frame at this weight even more over the time off.

Prediction: Jones by Decision

## Charles Oliveira -256 vs. Michael Chandler +205

Two of the most exciting fighters on the roster face off for the second time in the Lightweight co-main event. Charles Oliveira is one of the most dangerous finishers the sport has ever seen, with world-class jiu-jitsu and knockout power that he displayed the first time these two fought when he landed a left hook and finished Chandler in the second round. Michael Chandler is a stocky and powerful wrestler with massive power in all his limbs, although he has been off for several years since his loss to Dustin Poirier.

The price makes it very tempting to pick Chandler, with their last matchup being lined very closely; however, factoring in Chandler's layoff and the strong recent form of Oliveira, I will pick a repeat of the first fight.

Prediction: Oliveira by 3rd Round Submission

## Bo Nickal -1111 vs. Paul Craig +680

One of the biggest prospects in the sport takes a massive step against a tricky veteran in this Middleweight clash. Bo Nickal looks to continue his rapid ascent through the ranks as the highly credentialed collegiate wrestler has finished each of his three UFC opponents with a mix of knockouts and submissions. Paul Craig has always been a very dangerous submission grappler with signature wins over Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill, among many other Light Heavyweight killers.

I'll pick Nickal here despite the odds being completely unplayable straight. His submission prop may have some value as that is how he earns most of his wins, and despite Craig's grappling background, he has been submitted several times.

Prediction: Nickal by 2nd Round Submission

## Karine Silva -263 vs. Viviane Araujo +210

A fast finisher who is unbeaten in the UFC takes on her toughest test yet here at Flyweight. Karine Silva has had a perfect four-fight start to the UFC, with three finishes in those wins, showing submission skills that this division has rarely seen. Viviane Araujo is a veteran who has fought many of the best in the division, although her late results have been very lackluster, with her clearly being a step behind the division's best at this stage in her career.

I'm picking Silva here as she has shown serious potential, while Araujo has seen her best days. Silva also holds the finishing upside, with Araujo being very little of a threat to end the fight.

Prediction: Silva by Decision

## Mauricio Ruffy -909 vs. James Llontop +560

This is a short-notice clash between exciting Lightweight strikers. Mauricio Ruffy is another fighting nerd who has caught the attention of many since his debut win over Jamie Mullarkey, where he landed many flashy strikes on his way to an early knockout win over the veteran. James Llontop enters this having lost his first two UFC fights, although, in his last performance, he showed his striking skills going to a close decision with the very skilled Viacheslav Borshchev.

This price is insane, so I feel like I have to pick Llontop, as there is no way I see Ruffy as a fighter with the skills to warrant this type of price, even against a short-notice opponent.

Prediction: Llontop by 2nd Round TKO

## Jonathan Martinez +112 vs. Marcus McGhee -137

Bantamweights on the rise go head to head, looking to move up in the rankings. Jonathan Martinez is a skilled striker with deadly leg kicks that have finished several UFC opponents, although when opponents can get inside, like Jose Aldo and Davey Grant, he can struggle. Marcus McGhee is a fast-paced brawler who has burst onto the scene, finishing his first three UFC fights inside two rounds with a mix of his relentless striking and opportunistic submission game.

I lean towards McGhee as he continually pushes his way inside, which could cause Martinez problems. However, Martinez is a much more experienced fighter with wins over higher-level opponents.

Prediction: McGhee by Decision

## Chris Weidman +101 vs. Eryk Anders -123

A former champion returns against a fellow veteran here at Middleweight. Chris Weidman is a gritty wrestler who worked hard to return from his gruesome leg injury several years ago. Eryk Anders is a tough veteran who has ground out some tough wins, including his last fight, where he came back against Jamie Pickett.

I'll go with Weidman as his wrestling is still good enough that he will have an advantage or, at the very least, be able to nullify Anders there, and the striking is close, but I give Weidman the edge after seeing Anders dropped in his last fight.

Prediction: Weidman by Decision

## Jim Miller +142 vs. Damon Jackson -175

Battle-tested Lightweights collide in this fun prelim clash. Jim Miller is one of the most experienced mixed martial artists alive, and he is still going strong, with this being his third fight of the year after two wars with Gabriel Benitez and Bobby Green, where he showed his well-rounded skill set and toughness. Damon Jackson moves up in weight here after losing three of his last four, showing solid grappling and decent volume striking, although little power.

I like Miller as the underdog in this one as I don't believe the move up in weight will help Jackson, who holds no clear advantages over Miller. 

Prediction: Miller by Decision

## Roberto Romero +650 vs. David Onama -1111

One of a few short-notice bouts goes down here at Featherweight. Roberto Romero steps in for his UFC debut here, having won three of his last four, including a nasty submission in his last fight. David Onama is a deadly striker who is very big for the division and showed a lot of improvement in his ground game against Jonathan Pearce in his last fight.

I'm picking Onama, but this one is an easy pass from a betting perspective as he has been put into tough grappling positions against guys like Garrett Armfield, which makes me hesitate about his skill set, especially at this price.

Prediction: Onama by 1st Round KO

## Marcin Tybura -149 vs. Jhonata Diniz +121

A dangerous newcomer on the rise meets a consistent veteran in this Heavyweight prelim. Marcin Tybura is a solid veteran who, somewhat surprisingly, had three straight fights that ended in the first round, which is interesting to me as I see his style is more of a grinding type rather than a finisher, as he has shown in his wins over Alexandr Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov. Jhonata Diniz is a dangerous striker who gets his big fight here after a late pullout from Derrick Lewis weeks ago, although his wrestling game is a real concern, as Austen Lane was able to control him for a round.

Tybura has an obvious path here if he can get this fight to the ground early, which he likely can, as Diniz has shown little to no ability to defend against a grappling attack the level of Tybura's.

Prediction: Tybura by 1st Round Submission

## Mickey Gall -139 vs. Ramiz Brahimaj +113

Welterweight grapplers square off here, looking to get back in the win column. Mickey Gall has been a grappler over most of his career, although after returning from injury against Bassil Hafez, he opted for a striking match where he showed some decent striking skills although some deficiencies on defense. Ramiz Brahimaj is a submission specialist coming into this after a terrible showing against Themba Gorimbo after returning from a scary injury that may have taken a lot out of him.

I like Gall here as he has the skills to match or beat Brahimaj on the ground and will be the better striker coming off a far more encouraging performance.

Prediction: Gall by Decision (Best Bet)

## Oban Elliott -256 vs. Bassil Hafez +205

Welterweights looking to establish their place in the division face off in this one. Oban Elliot enters this one having won his first two UFC fights, showing clear improvement from one win to the next, with his most recent performance being a very impressive win over Preston Parsons, where he dominated the striking for three rounds. Bassil Hafez is known for his gritty, short-notice war with Jack Della Maddalena, where he showed his wrestling and toughness, but he also has power and solid boxing, as he showed in his win over Mickey Gall earlier this year.

I'll go with Elliott here, although I don't have much confidence at this price as he will have the technical advantage; however, the punching power of Hafez and the image of Elliott hurt badly on Dana White's Contender Series gives me a lot of hesitation.

Prediction: Elliott by Decision