UFC 283 goes down from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as hometown hero Glover Texeira +123 looks to reclaim his Light Heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill -133 in our main event. This card also sees Deiveson Figueiredo +115, look to defend his Flyweight belt in the co-main event, where he takes on his long-time rival Brandon Moreno -125 for a fourth time.
Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 1/21/2023 3:25 PM EST
The Light Heavyweight title will finally be decided here between two men at very different points in their careers. Glover Texeira is the ageless wonder that has seemingly gotten better in his early forties using his wrestling and clean boxing. Jamahal Hill has made noise recently with his knockout streak although, questions remain about his ground game.
I'm taking Glover Texeira here as the underdog because if he gets a hold of Jamahal Hill on the ground, I believe he will secure the finish.
Pick: Texeira O/U: Over 1.5 -125
The fourth installment of this epic rivalry goes down here. Deiveson Figueiredo is a powerhouse who has proven he can land big shots and mix in an underrated ground game. Brandon Moreno is an iron chinned cardio machine with a well-rounded skillset that he has improved over time in the UFC.
I have gone between the two here, but in the end, Moreno is the fighter with the higher upside, in my opinion, but I am going to bet the over in this one as these are two durable fighters who know each other well.
Pick: Moreno O/U: Over 4.5 -139
Top-level Welterweights meet in this one. Gilbert Burns has become a star since moving up in weight, having put on great fights where he has displayed his world-class Jiu-Jitsu as well as his powerful boxing. Neil Magny has found ways to win in this division for a long time using his strong clinch game and ability to control range.
I am taking Burns in this one, and I've got him by knockout as he has shown his power against the best in the weight class, and he will want to strike in this matchup.
Pick: Burns O/U: Under 2.5 -130
Highly ranked Flyweight matchup here. Jessica Andrade is one of the most powerful women on the roster, regardless of weight class, and she uses this power to overwhelm opponents often. Lauren Murphy has found ways to win using good fundamentals; however, she doesn't do anything that jumps out as exceptional.
I've got Andrade here, and I think she gets it done inside the distance as although Murphy has only been finished once she is getting older, and Andrade is a finisher of the highest caliber.
Pick: Andrade O/U: Under 2.5 -116
This is the perfect fight to kick off the main card at Light Heavyweight. Paul Craig is a master of the submission game, which makes him a threat at all times, but his wrestling and striking are not great, leaving him a rather one-dimensional fighter. Johnny Walker is a wildman known for his crazy power despite some concerns about durability.
I like Walker here as this is a good matchup for him, with him having done a lot of work on his grappling lately and having the power to end this early.
Pick: Walker O/U: Under 1.5 -189
The final fight in a storied career takes place here. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua is a legend in the sport, although he has not looked good of late, and his form will likely not improve. Ihor Potieria has power, although he does not appear to have much else, and his cardio is a concern.
This fight was more challenging to pick than I first thought, but in the end, I can't pick Rua at this point in his career, although I see no value in taking Potieria at a favorite price either.
Pick: Potieira O/U: Under 1.5 -106
Short notice matchup here to keep Gregory Rodrigues on the card. Gregory Rodrigues is a powerful puncher with great boxing technique to go with a good ground game. Bruno Ferreira makes his debut here with an impressive run of nine straight finishes to start his professional career.
I'll pick Rodrigues, as although Ferreira looks like an exciting prospect, I believe Rodrigues is ready for ranked opposition.
Pick: Rodrigues O/U: Under 1.5 -189
Replacement for Guram Kutateladze steps in here at Lightweight. Thiago Moises has fought tough competition in his UFC run and has shown to be a tough out for anyone with his high-level ground game. Melquinzael Costa makes his debut here, having won three of his last four inside the distance.
I'll take Moises in this one, as he has proven he can compete at this level many times, which is still a question for Costa.
Pick: Moises O/U: Under 2.5 -133
Very good matchup here at Middleweight. Gabriel Bonfim is a well-rounded finisher, and he will be the second brother competing on the card. Mounier Lazzez is a good kickboxer who has already faced solid competition in the UFC.
This is a close fight, and a shot at Lazzez tempted me, but I'll lean toward Bonfim as he has the finishing upside, in my opinion.
Pick: Bonfim O/U: Under 2.5 -145
One of my favorite prospects in the UFC returns here at Heavyweight. Jailton Almeida has looked unstoppable so far, using his dominant grappling game to leave opponents helpless. Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost three straight fights by knockout and has not looked good from the bottom position.
Taking Almeida here is obvious, but unfortunately, I don't see the value in betting on him as all the numbers are very steep, including his round-one price, so I'll stay away.
Pick: Almeida O/U: Under 1.5 -323
Intriguing matchup here at Bantamweight. Luan Lacerda is a submission specialist with a tricky style. Cody Stamann has proven to be a well-rounded fighter, although he has little finishing ability.
I'll lean toward Stamann here because of his wrestling edge, but I am not interested in playing him at this price.
Pick: Stamann O/U: Over 2.5 -196
An explosive matchup between Lightweight prospects. Terrance McKinney has the ability to finish almost anyone in the first round with his insane power or strong wrestling and submission game. Ismael Bonfim comes in off an impressive win on Dana White's Contender Series, and he is the first of two brothers competing on this card.
I'm going with McKinney in this one as he has shown the ability to starch anyone early, and if he can pace himself better, he is going to be tough to beat.
Pick: McKinney O/U: Under 1.5 -227
Good matchup here at Welterweight. Warlley Alves is a finisher who has not gone the distance in his last six fights, although he has alternated wins and losses. Nicolas Dalby is a grappler on his second run in the UFC.
I've got Dalby here, as I think he can get through round one and control Alves to win a decision or get a late finish.
Pick: Dalby O/U: Over 2.5 -103
Women's Featherweight showcase. Josiane Nunes is a short fighter for the weight class, but she has the power to compete as she has knocked out most of her opponents as a pro and her only loss is Taila Santos. Zarah Fairn returns after several years away since she began her UFC run with two first-round losses.
I think Nunes should win this fight relatively easily.
Pick: Nunes O/U: Under 2.5 -175
Bantamweight matchup here to start the card off. Daniel Marcos comes in undefeated off a win on Dana White's Contender Series. Saimon Oliveira makes his second UFC appearance here after he struggled in his debut, being controlled for most of the fight.
I'll take Marcos as the underdog here as he looks to have good potential, and I am not concerned about it being his debut.
Pick: Marcos O/U: Over 2.5 -120
Glover Teixeira +123
Johnny Walker -182
Terrance McKinney -116
Nicolas Dalby +113
Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo Over 4.5 -139
Gilbert Burns by (T)KO +280
Jessica Andrade Inside The Distance +107