UFC 284: Odds Breakdown

UFC 284: Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
February 10, 2023|

A super fight for the ages takes place down under at Lightweight with Islam Makhachev -357 defending his belt for the first time against pound-for-pound number one Alexander Volkanovski +300 in Perth, Australia. Before that, we will find out who is next to challenge for the Featherweight crown as Yair Rodriguez -179 takes on Josh Emmett +155 for the interim title.

Odds Provided by Stake.com accurate as of 2/10/2023 3:30 PM EST

Islam Makhachev -357 vs. Alexander Volkanovski +300

Lightweight title and legendary status on the line in this matchup. Islam Makhachev has become one of the biggest names in the sport because of his recent dominance, which relies on a heavy wrestling game and top-tier defense on the feet. Alexander Volkanovski is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world right now as he has dominated Featherweight for years, having shown a wide array of skills, but his best attributes are his distance management and speed, which he will need here.

I have a tough time seeing Alexander Volkanovski staying upright long enough to gain significant momentum as Makhachev is very sound defensively, which may force Volkanovski to take a risk that results in grappling exchanges to close the distance.

Pick: Makhachev O/U: Under 2.5 +123


Yair Rodriguez -179 vs. Josh Emmett +155

This is a perfect matchup of powerful strikers for the interim Featherweight title. Yair Rodriguez has shown top-tier kickboxing, a sneaky submission game, and excellent durability on his up-and-down path to the title. Josh Emmett is a fundamentally sound fighter with a strong base and a huge right hand.

I like Rodriguez in this one, as the only way I see Emmett winning is by using his wrestling which I do not believe he can do consistently over five rounds at his age.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Under 4.5 +111

Randy Brown +260 vs. Jack Della Maddalena -303

Rising Welterweights clash here. Randy Brown is a long fighter who is good at using his range, although he has some horrible habits on defense that have got him hurt a few times, and he does not use his grappling very often. Jack Della Maddalena is a very skilled boxer who picks his shots well and has destroyed all his competition so far, and he also has a better ground game than some would give him credit for.

Skill for skill, this matchup is very close, and that led me to play Brown nearly; however, Brown has terrible habits on defense, and with the sharp boxing of Della Maddalena, I see it as an inevitability that he will finish the fight so I will play his knockout prop which sits at -132 on Stake.com.

Pick: Della Maddalena O/U: Under 2.5 -152


Justin Tafa -120 vs. Parker Porter +107

Heavyweight action here on the main card. Justin Tafa is a classic Heavyweight brawler, although he is not much else as he has shown he can lose in these brawls and be outclassed by more skilled opponents. Parker Porter may not be the most imposing figure, but his skill set is solid as he can strike at a decent pace with good defense and mix in grappling when need be.

I'm taking Porter here because I do not believe he should be the underdog, as aside from the power of Tafa, I give every edge to Porter.

Pick: Porter O/U: Over 2.5 +118

Jimmy Crute -182 vs. Alonzo Menifield +160

A big matchup between rising contenders at Light Heavyweight. Jimmy Crute has suffered some setbacks since being seen as a top prospect; however, he has proven he can use his grappling at a high level which is his strong suit. Alonzo Menifield is a big puncher who has recently shown an evolution in his ground game.

I've got Crute in this one, as he will use his strong wrestling to control the fight. Menifield is live for a knockout, as we have seen Crute get finished quickly before by Jamahal Hill; however, I'll take my chances he avoids the shot here and pair him with Islam Makhachev to win the main event in the main event to bring both their prices down.

Pick: Crute O/U: Over 1.5 +111


Tyson Pedro -233 vs. Modestas Bukauskas +200

Very intriguing match at Light Heavyweight. Tyson Pedro has looked great since returning from injury; however, the level of that competition could be a lot higher, leaving me a bit skeptical. Modestas Bukauskas returns to the UFC here after winning several times outside the promotion, and he looks improved with sharp striking and movement.

This is a good fight that will be close in the striking; however, I see Pedro's ground game and power being too much in the end, resulting in him finishing the fight.

Pick: Pedro O/U: Under 1.5 +106

Josh Culibao -106 vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan -106

Fun fight here between rising Feathweights to watch. Josh Culibao has had some excellent showings against tough opposition in his UFC run showing his toughness. Melsik Baghdasaryan is a kickboxer who entered the UFC with a high finish rate, although his cardio is a concern.

I'll take Baghdasaryan here at a slight underdog price, as he should be the favorite with his higher finishing upside.

Pick: Baghdasaryan O/U: Under 2.5 +132


Kleydson Rodrigues -312 vs. Shannon Ross +270

Young Flyweights go at it in this one. Kleydson Rodrigues comes in off a tough UFC debut where he was out grappled. Shannon Ross comes into this one having been finished in two of his last three coming off a loss on Dana White's contender series.

I'll pick Rodrigues in this one, although after missing out on the opportunity to bet him at a much better price, I'll pass on this fight.

Pick: Rodrigues O/U: Under 2.5 -116

Jamie Mullarkey -263 vs. Francisco Prado +230

Lightweight finishers collide here. Jamie Mularkey has had a fun UFC run against all high-level opponents. Francisco Prado enters this one undefeated, with all his wins coming by stoppage.

I'll lean with Mullarkey in this one as he is much more proven against high-level competition; however, I do not trust his durability against a fighter in Prado, who comes in with a lot of power.

Pick: Mullarkey O/U: Under 2.5 -159


Jack Jenkins -345 vs. Don Shainis +290

Two Featherweights are looking to make a name for themselves in this one. Jack Jenkins makes his UFC debut here off an impressive stoppage win on Dana White's contender series. After his short-notice debut, Don Shainis gets another chance here, where he was submitted early on by Sodiq Yusuff.

I'm taking Jenkins here as he impressed me in his last win.

Pick: Jenkins O/U: Over 1.5 -159

Loma Lookboonmee -303 vs. Elise Reed +250

Strawweight matchup here. Loma Lookboonmee is a well-rounded fighter who has shown solid striking and a good clinch game that has earned her some close wins. Elise Reed has repeatedly shown solid striking, although her grappling has lost her fights as she struggles from her back.

I'll pick Lookboonmee to win this fight, as she should be able to win using her clinch and grappling game.

Pick: Lookboonmee O/U: Over 2.5 -333


Blake Bilder +118 vs. Shane Young -133

Fun matchup early on here at Featherweight. Blake Bilder makes his debut here undefeated, with a high finishing rate and a reputation for fun fights. Shane Young has had a tough UFC run but has shown all the skills necessary to win fights.

I'm going with Young here, and I'll pair him with Tukhugov to increase his price.

Pick: Young O/U: Under 2.5 -116

Zubaira Tukhugov -556 vs. Elves Brenner +460

A Featherweight fight opens the card here. Zubaira Tukhugov has faced solid competition in the UFC and has shown an ability to fight at a very high level with both grapplers and strikers. Elves Brenner makes his debut in this matchup; he has several first-round submissions on his resume and has never been finished as a pro.

I'll pick Tukhugov here as he has shown an ability to compete with a high level of competition that Brenner has yet to, and I believe Brenner has little chance outside of a submission which will be hard to catch Tukhugov in.

Pick: Tukhugov O/U: Over 2.5 -128


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Yair Rodriguez -179

Parker Porter +107

Melsik Baghdasaryan -106

Jack Della Maddalena by TKO/KO -132


Islam Makhachev + Jimmy Crute -115

Zubaira Tukhugov + Shane Young +105

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