Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 10:00 AM EST 4/5/2023

Alex Pereira +118 vs. Israel Adesanya -128

A long-storied rivalry will write its next chapter in our Middleweight main event. Alex Pereira has continued to develop during his time in the UFC, having shown more than just his insane power in his last win over Adesanya, where he defended the calf kicks well and even landed a takedown. Israel Adesanya looks for revenge here, and he will likely do so using his elusive striking attack, although last fight, he did succeed when attempting to grapple during round three.

This fight is tough to pick, as Adesanya has a technical advantage. Still, predicting how he will recover from nearly five rounds with Pereira after losing is challenging, especially while giving the champ more time to develop his martial arts game. In the end, I believe Adesanya has the tools to reclaim his title here.

Pick: Adesanya O/U: Under 4.5 -128

Gilbert Burns -435 vs. Jorge Masvidal +380

Dangerous finishers matchup here at Welterweight. Gilbert Burns is as high-level a jiu-jitsu player as there is in the UFC, and he combines that with an aggressive striking style. Jorge Masvidal returns after over a year off here; he is a tough veteran with power in all his limbs, although his age is becoming a concern with his last few showings.

This matchup is a tough matchup for Masvidal as he has not faced a grappler this aggressive with submissions in some time, and I believe Burns will also have a striking advantage at this point in Masvidal’s career.

Pick: Burns O/U: Under 2.5 -141

Rob Font +160 vs. Adrian Yanez -175

Top-tier strikers collide in this Bantamweight affair. Rob Font is a very high-volume fighter who has taken some damage in recent showings. Adrian Yanez is a great counter striker who makes opponents pay for mistakes, although he has shown to be very hittable as he looks for his power shots.

I’ll take Font here as the underdog, as despite concerns about his durability, he has the tools to win this fight with the right game plan, and hopefully, the time off has refreshed his chin.

Pick: Font O/U: Over 2.5 -103

Kevin Holland -238 vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio +220

Two powerful Welterweights who are known for putting on a show meet here. Kevin Holland returns off his fight of the year contender vs. Stephen Thompson, where he injured his hand; although he did show high-level striking and durability in the bout, he has also made notable improvements to his ground game since joining the UFC. Santiago Ponzinibbio comes back after an incredible comeback knockout against Alex Morono in December, although he looked slow early in the fight and struggled greatly as a favorite over a short-notice opponent.

I’ve got Holland here as, despite his recent hand injury, he has every advantage in this fight. Considering Holland’s power and the age of Ponzinibbio, I believe Holland will finish this fight.

Pick: Holland O/U: Under 2.5 -122

Raul Rosas Jr. -222 vs. Christian Rodriguez +200

Young Bantamweight prospects with bright futures go at it to start the main card. Raul Rosas Jr. looked incredible in his UFC debut over Jay Perrin, using his length on the ground to strangle him; he also has creative striking on the feet. Christian Rodriguez comes in off his first octagon win, where he showed his submission skills on offense after having to display them in defense in his fight against Jonathan Pearce.

There is a lot of hype around Rosas Jr., which has driven his price up significantly, creating a value opportunity for Christian Rodriguez as the underdog with much more experience.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 2.5 -106

Kelvin Gastelum -120 vs. Chris Curtis +111

Veteran Middleweight clash here in the featured prelim. Kelvin Gastelum is known for his granite chin and high pace, which will serve him well in this matchup. Chris Curtis is a hard-hitting boxer with excellent takedown defense.

I’ve got Gastelum here, as I believe he will have a speed and volume advantage that should win him the minutes against Curtis.

Pick: Gastelum O/U: Over 2.5 -233

Michelle Waterson-Gomez +148 vs. Luana Pinheiro -161

A fan favorite makes her return in this Strawweight matchup. Michelle Waterson-Gomez returns here, and she is a veteran with a well-rounded skillset. Luana Pinheiro gets a considerable step up in competition here after an interesting start to her UFC run.

This matchup is closer than the odds indicate, with Waterson-Gomez having shown much more despite her age, so I will make a play on her to win this fight.

Pick: Waterson Gomez O/U: Over 2.5 -345

Gerald Meerschaert +165 vs. Joe Pyfer -182

Clash of styles here at Middleweight. Gerald Meerschaert is a submission specialist who has also improved his striking game recently. Joe Pyfer is a Contender Series product coming off a big knockout win in his debut.

This is a good matchup, and Meerschaert tempts me at dog odds, but I’ll lean with Pyfer as he has impressed a lot so far.

Pick: Pyfer O/U: Over 1.5 +106

Karl Williams -435 vs. Chase Sherman +380

Short notice replacement fight here at Heavyweight. Karl Williams makes a quick turnaround for his second fight this month after he showed his wrestling in a win over Lukasz Brezeski just a few weeks ago. Chase Sherman looks to get back on track here after losing five of his last six fights; he is a decent striker, although his grappling is not his strong point, to say the least.

I’ve got Williams here, as his grappling advantage should lead to a dominant victory here.

Pick: Williams O/U: Under 2.5 +111

Cynthia Calvillo +245 vs. Lupita Godinez -270

Another test for a promising young prospect here at Strawweight. Cynthia Calvillo. Lupita Godinez has impressed me at times using her dominant wrestling game, although at times she does not use it, and although her striking could be better, it will not win her high-level fights right now.

I like Godinez here as she has shown very high-level wrestling for the division and did well on the feet against Angela Hill as well.

Pick: Godinez O/U: Over 2.5 -303

Trey Ogden +285 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes -312

Intriguing stylistic matchup here between Lightweights at a Catchweight in a late opponent swap. Trey Ogden is a solid grappler with a good submission game, although his striking is slow and hittable. Ignacio Bahamondes is a tall, long striker with good cardio and power.

I’ll take Bahamondes here, as he should have a massive striking advantage.

Pick: Bahamondes O/U: Under 2.5 -120

Steve Garcia +175 vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -189

Classic striker vs. grappler matchup here at Featherweight early on the card. Steve Garcia is a scrappy brawler coming off a brutal knockout finish of highly touted Chase Hooper in round one. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is a solid wrestler with good cardio and a wealth of pro experience outside of the UFC.

I’ll lean with Nuerdanbieke here as I believe his wrestling advantage will be enough for him to grind out the win, although I see no value in this number.

Pick: Nuerdanbieke O/U: Over 2.5 +115

Sam Hughes +215 vs. Jaqueline Amorim -233

Good fight here at Strawweight to start the card. Sam Hughes returns here; she has had an up-and-down run in the UFC at times showing strong wrestling, although she has yet to be consistent. Jaqueline Amorim makes her UFC debut here, and she has been impressive so far with six wins, all in the first round.

I’ll pick Amorim here as she seems to have a very high ceiling, although I am not willing to bet on her until I see her against UFC-level competition.

Pick: Amorim O/U: Under 2.5 -106

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Rob Font +160

Christian Rodriguez +200

Kelvin Gastelum -120

Michelle Waterson-Gomez +148

Gilbert Burns by Submission +240

Kevin Holland Inside the Distance +143

Gilbert Burns + Kevin Holland -134