Odds provided by Stake.com are accurate as of 1:00 PM EST 5/4/2023

Aljamain Sterling +101 vs. Henry Cejudo -114

The long-awaited Bantamweight title fight will occur here in the champion’s backyard. Aljamain Sterling has won and held the belt using his volume striking and smothering grappling attack that is very effective in neutralizing opponents, although he has faded later in fights several times. Henry Cejudo returns from a very long three-year layoff here, and prior to that, I was very impressed with his ability to adapt to his opponent and solve the puzzle presented to him; he has well-noted Olympic-level wrestling and a well-developed standup game.

I’ve got Cejudo here as although it is difficult to tell how he will look off the layoff and at a size disadvantage, I am confident his wresting will be enough to cancel out Sterling’s and make this a striking battle where I believe Cejudo has an advantage on power and timing.

Pick: Cejudo O/U: Over 4.5

Belal Muhammad +109 vs. Gilbert Burns -122

High-stakes Welterweight bout gets five rounds here in our co-main event. Belal Muhammad is a well-rounded and conditioned fighter that can identify an opponent’s weakness and attack it with his skillset. Gilbert Burns is a ferocious finisher with power in both hands and one of the best submission games in the UFC.

I’ll take Burns here as I see him as the fighter with the finishing upside and the fact that he has fought recently, which is important with this being short notice.

Pick: Burns O/U: Under 4.5

Jessica Andrade -189 vs. Yan Xiaonan +165

Tough test for a fresh contender at Strawweight. Jessica Andrade already makes her third appearance this year here, and we know what we are getting, a powerful striker who is tough as nails and has one of the most diverse finishing attacks in women’s MMA. Yan Xiaonan is a striker with a long reach who can compete with anyone in the division in a pure striking match for three rounds, although her ground game is a massive concern as she has been controlled with ease before.

I like Xiaonan here, as Andrade has struggled against decent strikers in the past, and I see Xiaonan using her length to keep Andrade at a distance.

Pick: Xiaonan O/U: Over 2.5

Movsar Evloev -769 vs. Diego Lopes +600

Short notice changeup in our Featherweight matchup, which features one of the best prospects in the division. Movsar Evloev has developed a very well-rounded MMA game which he showed in his dominant win over Dan Ige, where he landed hard strikes to show an evolution in his game; as we know, his grappling is very high level. Diego Lopes takes on this monumental challenge in his UFC debut; he is a quick finisher with plenty of experience in different MMA organizations but has not fought much UFC-caliber competition outside of his contender series loss.

I’ll pick Evloev here as we know he is a top-level fighter, and there are not many ranked fighters that I would give a chance against him, let alone a debutant on short notice.

Pick: Evloev O/U: Under 2.5

Kron Gracie +150 vs. Charles Jourdain -169

Very interesting matchup here at Featherweight to kick off the main card. Kron Gracie returns from a long layoff here; he is a high-level jiu-jitsu player and has been apparently working to bring his striking up after the Cub Swanson fight. Charles Jourdain is a high-volume striker who throws long combos and big kicks, although he can be controlled and is very hittable.

I’ll take Gracie as I see him as the fighter with the finishing potential here, as his grappling is top-notch, and Jourdain leaves himself open a lot. I will bet the over here as Gracie has never been finished showing he is durable against powerful strikers, and Jourdain is a black belt who should be able to defend some submissions.

Pick: Gracie O/U: Over 1.5

Drew Dober -204 vs. Matt Frevola +180

Lightweight firefight here that is sure to produce action. Drew Dober is a granite chin, power-punching veteran who has put on some great fights over his career. Matt Frevola is a high pace brawler with good hands and solid wrestling when he uses it, although I do not trust his durability or that he will use his wrestling.

I’ll take Dober here, as I think his power punches will be too much for Frevola over three rounds, and even if Frevola does wrestle, Dober has competed with high-level wrestlers before and has been difficult to hold down for three rounds.

Pick: Dober O/U: Under 1.5

Devin Clark -182 vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu +160

Wrestler takes on power puncher here at Light Heavyweight. Devin Clark has always been a great athlete, and his last time out, he showed he can fight as he forced his way to a win over Da Un Jung. Kennedy Nzechukwu is a durable and powerful striker who holds knockouts over some feared punchers like Ion Cutelaba and Carlos Ulberg.

I’ll side with Clark here as I think his wrestling advantage will be enough to give him a chance to grind out another win as an underdog.

Pick: Clark O/U: Over 2.5

Khaos Williams -312 vs. Rolando Bedoya +270

Finishers meet in this fantastic fight at Welterweight. Khaos Williams is a powerful puncher who has shown good wrestling defense as well, and he has also built up a nice run of opponents on his resume. Rolando Bedoya makes his debut here, and he looks good as he has finishing skills both on the feet and on the ground.

I’ll pick Williams here as he is more proven, but I am not eager to bet him against an intriguing debutant at this price.

Pick: Williams O/U: Under 2.5

Marina Rodriguez -135 vs. Virna Jandiroba +120

A fun striker vs. grappler matchup here at Strawweight. Marina Rodriguez has shown she is one of the elite strikers in the division, and she has defended the grappling attack of credentialed submission artists like Mackenzie Dern. Virna Jandiroba is a very skilled grappler with an evolving standup game, although her wrestling still needs work.

I like Rodriguez here as we have seen her defend against grapplers like Jandiroba before, and she has a massive striking advantage.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 2.5

Parker Porter -169 vs. Braxton Smith +149

Heavyweight brawlers clash here, looking to make a name for themselves. Parker Porter is a well-rounded fighter for the weight class with decent hands and a usable ground game. Braxton Smith makes his debut here, known for the knockout power he holds in his hands.

I will pick Porter, but I have no interest in betting on this fight as Porter was recently knocked out, and betting Heavyweight has proven a fruitless endeavor.

Pick: Porter O/U: Under 2.5

Ikram Aliskerov -196 vs. Phil Hawes +170

High-level wrestlers collide here at Middleweight. Ikram Aliskerov is a strong wrestler with a good submission game. Phil Hawes has shown a lot of skill with great wrestling and enough striking to win at times against Chris Curtis; however, his chin is a massive concern as he is very prone to the knockout.

I’ll lean toward Hawes here as I think this is a good matchup for him with Aliskerov not being a knockout artist, but it remains hard to trust him with my money.

Pick: Hawes O/U: Over 2.5

Zhalgas Zhumagulov +160 vs. Rafael Estevam -185

Solid matchup here between veteran and prospect at Flyweight. Zhalgas Zhumagulov has proven to be a solid caliber of fighter who can compete at the UFC level, although the judging has often gone against him in close fights. Rafael Estevam is an undefeated finisher, although many of his stoppages have come against lower-level competition.

I’m going to take the same approach here that I did with Zhumagulov’s last fight and bet the over as I think he wins, but even when he does win, the judges often give it to his opponent, but here I will attempt to avoid that.

Pick: Zhumagulov O/U: Over 2.5

Joseph Holmes +150 vs. Claudio Ribeiro -172

Clash of styles early on the card here at Middleweight. Joseph Holmes is a long striker with a good submission game, although his wrestling game is not great, and he has struggled against decent competition. Claudio Ribeiro is a powerful striker, although I still have questions about his ground game despite him having defended takedowns well in his debut.

I’ve got Ribeiro here to finish this fight, as I think he will be able to defend against any takedown attempts and land powerful shots.

Pick: Ribeiro O/U: Under 1.5

Daniel Santos -182 vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. +160

High pace Flyweights open the card. Daniel Santos is known for his crazy pressure, but he is also very skilled and can be impossible to deal with. Johnny Munoz Jr. has some nice tools with a solid grappling game, although I have questions about his striking defense.

I’ll pick Santos here, and I think he gets the finish, although a lot of money has come in on him moving his price beyond a point where I feel there is value.

Pick: Santos O/U: Under 2.5

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Henry Cejudo +100

Gilbert Burns -130

Drew Dober -210

Marina Rodriguez -125

Xiaonan Yan by Decision +240

Kron Gracie Scorecards = No Action -115

Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain Over 1.5 -125

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Rafael Estevam Over 2.5 -180

Claudio Ribeiro Inside The Distance -125