UFC 299 Odds Breakdown

UFC 299 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
March 07, 2024|

The UFC is bringing a stacked card of pay-per-view action to Miami, Florida, this weekend, headlined by Bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley -275 seeking revenge against Marlon "Chito" Vera +235. This card is loaded with action from top to bottom, so I went over every fight and gave my predictions and best bets; so, let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 3/6/2024 9:55 AM EST

Sean O'Malley -275 vs. Marlon Vera +235

The score will finally be settled here as these two Bantamweight rivals rematch with a belt on the line this time. Sean O'Malley has risen to become one of the biggest stars in the sport, using his very technical and powerful striking skills, although some questions about his durability remain. Marlon "Chito" Vera is a dangerous finisher, taking his time to find the right opportunity to go for the kill; the problem is he often loses minutes of fights, being the lower-volume guy.

I took O'Malley to win a decision here as I see him as the much cleaner and higher-output striker who will land harder and more often. However, I don't see Vera being finished with his insane durability, so I'll take the decision to get some value.

Pick: O'Malley O/U: Over 4.5 -155


Dustin Poirier +170 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis -200

Two of the sport's most thrilling fighters will collide in this five-round co-main event at Lightweight. Dustin Poirier is a veteran brawler with incredible boxing combos, although he has been taken down, controlled, or submitted several times over his career. Benoit Saint-Denis takes another step up in competition here after showing his knockout power against Matt Frevola with a first-round knockout; he also has a phenomenal ground game with powerful wrestling and good submissions.

I took Saint-Denis early at -150, where I felt there was value in him being the much younger fighter with the grappling upside. If you want to get my early plays, make sure to follow me on social media, where I post all my bets when they are made.

Pick: Saint-Denis O/U: Over 1.5 -225

Kevin Holland -132 vs. Michael Page +112

The much-anticipated debut of a fan favorite from outside the UFC is here at Welterweight. Kevin Holland is a tall and long striker with good power and a great chin; sometimes, he doesn't push the pace as I would like him to, and he rarely uses his solid grappling attack. Michael "Venom" Page debuts here with his hands-down striking style, which can be trouble for many opponents to deal with; he is now entering his late thirtiees, which is a slight concern.

I lean towards Holland here as I give him the durability edge in what will likely be a very close striking match, but I'll pass on this one from a betting perspective.

Pick: Holland O/U: Over 2.5 -180


Gilbert Burns +144 vs. Jack Della Maddalena -164

It is another big test for a highly touted prospect here at Welterweight. Gilbert Burns returns from his injury here looking to re-establish himself as a top contender with dangerous power in his punches and a world-class submission game, although after some time away, there are concerns with age and potential durability. Jack Della Maddalena has quickly risen to the UFC ranks with his fantastic boxing, which he has used to start his UFC career with six straight wins, although he has been caught in some very bad positions in the grappling both in the UFC and during his fight on Dana White's Contender Series.

I'll take Burns here. I believe he will look to get this one to the ground early and often and will eventually snatch up a submission victory.

Pick: Burns O/U: Over 1.5 -220

Petr Yan -113 vs. Song Yadong -107

The main card opens with this must-see clash at Bantamweight. Petr Yan is one of the best strikers in the UFC, with very accurate hands, the ability to mix in a great kick attack, and an underrated ground game. Song Yadong is a very technical boxer with big power in his hands; he is rather hittable, but he has a great chin to make up for that.

I've got Yan here as he is still one of the best fighters in the world despite the rough streak, and he will prove that here by outstriking the talented Yadong to a decision win.

Pick: Yan O/U: Over 2.5 -275


Curtis Blaydes -108 vs. Jailton Almeida -112

Heavyweight grapplers will collide in this one. Curtis Blaydes has been one of the best wrestlers at Heavyweight for some time, consistently showing the ability to takedown and control very large opponents; he also has decent hands, but his durability is a concern in the striking. Jailton Almeida is an extremely athletic grappler with very good submission skills for his size, although he is not very big for a Heavyweight.

I lean towards Almeida here, but this is a very difficult fight for me to get a strong read on. I am unsure about Almeida's striking defense or Blaydes' wrestling defense, so I will enjoy this one as a fan.

Pick: Almeida O/U: Under 1.5 +115

Kaytln Cerminara +170 vs. Maycee Barber -200

Top contenders look to take another step towards the title in this crucial matchup at Flyweight. Kaytln Cerminara returns here, having spent years near the top of the division with her solid kickboxing attack, which depends on her using length to keep opponents at a distance and keep pressure on them. Maycee Barber looks to extend her five-fight win streak here after violently finishing Amanda Ribas her last time out, showing her power and aggressive style.

At these odds, I'll go with Cerminara to get a decision. This will be a close fight if she can show up anywhere near the form she was in before her layoff.

Pick: Cerminara O/U: Over 2.5 -350


Mateusz Gamrot -455 vs. Rafael dos Anjos +355

Lightweight grapplers will compete in this interesting matchup. Mateusz Gamrot is a very fast-paced wrestler with fantastic chain wrestling, decent striking, and a great chin. Rafael dos Anjos was once the champion of this division and has maintained a well-rounded game capable of competing with high-level competition for a very long time.

I'll go with Gamrot to take a decision here as he will be the much higher pace fighter, and at his age, dos Anjos cannot keep up enough to make it close.

Pick: Gamrot O/U: Over 2.5 -300

Pedro Munhoz +180 vs. Kyler Phillips -210

It's a big test for an exciting Bantamweight looking to move into top contention against a veteran contender. Pedro Munhoz has been a top Bantamweight for a long time, with his signature calf kick and insane durability, having never been finished in his long career. Kyler Phillips is a long striker with a good kick game and solid submissions, although he can slow down as fights progress as he throws with a lot of power.

I like Phillips to win a decision, as he can use his length to keep Pedro at range and outland him over three rounds.

Pick: Phillips O/U: Over 2.5 -285


Michel Pereira -145 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +125

This is a fantastic matchup of Middleweight strikers who have found their correct weight class. Michel Pereira is a crazy striker who throws wild, often ineffective techniques, but he possesses real and dangerous power. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a big puncher who has three first-round knockouts in four Middleweight fights, although he has struggled against opponents with good grappling.

I'll pick Oleksiehczuk, but he has made some concerning comments about his training camp that give me slight concerns that he is not taking this fight as seriously as he needs to, so I will pass betting-wise.

Pick: Pereira O/U: Over 1.5 -170

Philipe Lins +113 vs. Ion Cutelaba -133

Light Heavyweight finishers will look to finally face off after being canceled the last time they were booked. Philipe Lins has won three straight since moving down in weight, having looked in tremendous shape. Ion Cutelaba is a wild finisher with big power and a solid ground game, although he is often reckless, and it can cost him.

I lean with Lins to get the finish, as he has looked great since moving down, but his age is a concern, especially against a dangerous opponent like Cutelaba.

Pick: Lins O/U: Under 2.5


Robelis Despaigne -326 vs. Josh Parisian +251

This is the debut of a very intriguing Heavyweight prospect. Robelis Despaigne is a gigantic former Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo; he is coming in with three knockouts in a combined nineteen seconds, showing insane power. Josh Parisian has been around for a bit in the UFC and has never managed to impress with any of his showings, having been finished by very low-level opponents before.

Despaigne likely makes easy work of this one, but with the pricing, I'll pass on betting on him until he gets more experience at this level.

Pick: Despaigne O/U: Under 1.5 -260

CJ Vergara +425 vs. Asu Almabaev -575

This is another test for an up-and-coming Flyweight as he takes on a tough veteran. CJ Vergara enters this one having won three of his last four, showing his toughness and ability to grind out difficult wins as he has against Daniel Lacerda and Kleydson Rodrigues. Asu Almabaev looks to extend his fourteen-fight win streak here in his second UFC appearance after choking out Ode Osbourne in his debut.

I like Almabaev here as I see him having success with the grappling, as Vergara often allows himself to be put into very bad positions.

Pick: Almabaev O/U: Under 2.5 -115


Joanne Wood +184 vs. Maryna Moroz -214

Experienced Flyweights open the card, looking to prove they can still compete at the highest level. Joanne Wood has competed with many of the best in the division and has struggled recently with her now getting up in age; she does good work with her striking and clinch game. Maryna Moroz returns here, having had some trouble staying consistently active in the past and now coming off back-to-back losses, although she has shown a high level of skill before holding a win over recent Bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva.

I'll pick Moroz as I believe she has more left in the tank than Wood, but it's tough to back her at this price when she hasn't been active or won fights.

Pick: Moroz O/U: Over 2.5 -335

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Benoit Saint-Denis -150

Gilbert Burns +144

Petr Yan -120

Sean O’Malley by Decision +130

Gilbert Burns Submission +375

Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Over 2.5 (-285) + Mateusz Gamort vs. Rafael dos Anjos Over 2.5 (-300) -125

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