UFC 301 Odds Breakdown

UFC 301 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
May 02, 2024|

The UFC is back on PPV live from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card is headlined by Alexandre Pantoja, -182, defending his Flyweight title against the fast-rising Steve Erceg, +157. I went over every fight on the card to give my picks and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 11:00 AM EST 5/2/2024

Alexandre Pantoja -182 vs. Steve Erceg +157

The Flyweight title is on the line here in a surprising main event. Alexander Pantoja has been a dominant force of late, showing his relentless pressure, powerful striking, tremendous grappling, and durability, which has proven to be a weapon in itself. Steve Erceg jumps the ranks here after a highlight knockout of Matt Schnell, where he showed he has solid striking, although he did need to rely on grappling to get the win over Alessandro Costa prior to that.

I took Pantoja here because I see him being better everywhere and having much more top-level experience. I see him finishing Erceg within the first three rounds.

Pick: Pantoja O/U: Under 3.5 +125


Jonathan Martinez -145 vs. Jose Aldo +125

The return of the King of Rio goes down in our Bantamweight co-main event. Jonathan Martinez has proven to be a deadly striker with some of the best leg kicks in the UFC and improved boxing to go with solid defensive grappling, which he showed in his upset win over Said Nurmagomedov. Jose Aldo returns here off his retirement, and he will do so, having stayed somewhat active in the boxing scene; he has, of course, had his ten-year title reign in the UFC, where he used his freak athleticism to dominate opponents before transitioning to a more boxing heavy style later in his career.

I've got Aldo to come back and get a win at home here. I see him defending Martinez's leg kicks, as he has always had fantastic defense and is using his hands to get inside and do more damage.

Pick: Aldo O/U: Under 2.5 +200

Anthony Smith +425 vs. Vitor Petrino -600

It's a classic veteran vs. prospect matchup here at Light Heavyweight. Anthony Smith has been around this division for a long time, having used a well-rounded style to grind out tough wins, although he enters this having lost three of his last four, with the win being a controversial split decision, and his chin is not holding up the same anymore. Vitor Petrino is a physical specimen with insane strength and power that he has used to quickly reach four victories in the UFC, showing both knockout power and submission skills.

I have to pick Petrino here. He will be much too powerful for Smith and will likely find a knockout finish in this one.

Pick: Petrino O/U: Under 1.5 +160


Michel Pereira -600 vs. Ihor Potieria +425

Middleweight strikers with flashy styles will go head to head in his electric matchup. Michel Pereira is a wildman with a crazy striking style and big power behind those strikes; he seems to have learned from his early career mistakes against Tristan Connelly and Diego Sanchez and is now on a seven-fight win streak, including two finishes in just over a minute since moving up in weight. Ihor Potieria enters this off a strong showing against Robert Bryczek, where he showed he could strike for three rounds in his debut at this weight class.

I'll go with Pereira here as I am not sold that Potieria can compete at this level of competition.

Pick: Pereira O/U: Under 1.5 -165

Paul Craig +475 vs. Caio Borralho -650

Middleweight grapplers square off in this very intriguing matchup. Paul Craig is a fantastic submission grappler, although his game has always lacked much roundedness, with him struggling whenever he faces other competent grapplers who can shut down his submissions. Caio Borralho is an athletic and explosive athlete with a strong ground game that he has used to shut down all of his UFC competition thus far.

I'm taking Borralho here as I see him having a good enough ground game to control where this fight takes place and dominating either the striking or from top position.

Pick: Borralho O/U: Over 1.5 -200


Joanderson Brito -164 vs. Jack Shore +144

Featherweights on the rise will clash here. Joanderson Brito is a tank with dangerous finishing ability wherever the fight goes, with his knockout power in his hands and a slick submission game that he used to steal a victory away from Jonathan Pearce in his last fight. Jack Shore is a strong grappler with good control and pace, although he has been outmatched physically before in his fight with Ricky Simon down a weight class.

I've got Brito here, as I see him being too strong for Shore and finding a finish within the first two rounds.

Pick: Brito O/U: Under 1.5 +160

Karolina Kowalkiewicz +330 vs. Iasmin Lucindo -400

It's a fantastic matchup that puts a veteran against a bright prospect at Strawweight. Karolina Kowalkiewicz has revived her career by entering this matchup on a four-fight win streak, although it has all been against relatively low-level competition without high-level grappling. Iasmin Lucindo is a very young prospect who has shown a tremendous skill set, including a dangerous submission game and strong striking.

I like Lucindo here as she has the skillset and the physical ability to dominate this matchup completly.

Pick: Lucindo O/U: Under 2.5 +170


Elves Brenner +207 vs. Myktybek Orolbai -242

Lightweights with plenty of fans behind them will go head-to-head in this fun clash. Elves Brenner is an always dangerous action fighter capable of setting a very high pace; he fights out of the Chute Boxe gym with Charles Oliveira, so we know he will be prepared for war. Myktybek Orolbai impressed many with his short-notice domination of Uros Medic, where he showed a high-level wrestling game before securing the submission in round two.

I'm taking Brenner as the underdog here as he is much more proven at this level, and Orolbai has been caught with big shots before, which could cost him here.

Pick: Brenner O/U: Under 2.5 +105

Jean Silva -122 vs. William Gomis +102

Featherweights looking to establish themselves as real threats in the division meet in this one. Jean Silva is a patient but powerful striker with good forward pressure, although he is still unproven against UFC-level competition. William Gomis is a tall striker with fast kicks and a decent defensive ground game, but he can struggle to separate himself in close fights.

I lean toward Silva here as I believe he will be doing more damage and will be able to work inside to negate the height disadvantage.

Pick: Silva O/U: Over 2.5 -180


Joaquim Silva +145 vs. Drakkar Klose -170

Veteran Lightweights matchup in this one. Joaquim Silva is a powerful striker, which he showed against Arman Tsarukyan by hurting him badly; he is not the most durable, having been knocked out three times in his UFC career. Drakkar Klose is a well-rounded guy who has come close to pushing to the top of the division with decent striking and a good ground game, although he is hittable and doesn't react well to big shots.

I'll pick Silva as the underdog here as I believe he will have the striking edge here and can defend the grappling enough to force some standup where he could find a knockout.

Pick: Silva O/U: Under 1.5 +200

Mauricio Ruffy -205 vs. Jamie Mullarkey +175

The debut of a Lightweight finisher goes down here against a veteran looking to get back on track. Mauricio Ruffy makes his debut here as a dangerous knockout artist, with all of his fights ending with knockouts or TKOs. Jamie Mullarkey is a high pace striker with good reach, although he has not been able to take damage well throughout his career, having suffered many knockout losses, including two in the last year alone.

I'm taking Ruffy here as he has proven to be a dangerous puncher, and Mullarkey's durability is completely gone.

Pick: Ruffy O/U: Under 1.5 +125


Ismael Bonfim -550 vs. Vinc Pichel +400

Lightweights who were supposed to meet earlier this year now square off here. Ismael Bonfim is a fast-paced finisher who swings big and hunts the knockout sometimes too much, as he did against Benoit Saint-Denis, where he was over-aggressive and got finished early. Vinc Pichel is a gritty veteran striker returning from a two-year layoff here; he is getting up there in age, which is a massive concern here, especially with the layoff.

I'll pick Bonfim as he is the more dangerous fighter, and the layoff for an older Pichel is a major concern, but this price is out of control, and I have no interest in betting on Bonfim at this price.

Pick: Bonfim O/U: Over 1.5 -250

Alessandro Costa -130 vs. Kevin Borjas +110

Flyweights get the card started in this fun matchup. Alessandro Costa is a solid striker who showed good submission skills before joining the UFC; he lost a competitive decision to now-title challenger Steve Erceg in his last fight, where he had good moments despite being controlled for the third round, which cost him the fight. Kevin Borjas is a fast-paced brawler who can crack, as he showed by dropping Joshua Van early in his wild UFC debut, where he also showed good cardio and durability.

I like Borjas here as I give him the finishing upside, with Costa being knocked out several times in his career. I also believe he can win a decision and defend any grappling.

Pick: Borjas O/U: Under 2.5 -120


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Alexandre Pantoja -205

Jose Aldo +100

Joanderson Brito -150

Elves Brenner +205

Kevin Borjas +116

Caio Borralho/ Iasmin Lucindo -110

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