UFC 302 Odds Breakdown

UFC 302 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
May 29, 2024|

The UFC returns from a week off with a stacked card of PPV action headlined by Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev defending his belt against the always-exciting Dustin Poirier from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. I went over every matchup on this amazing card to give my picks and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 5/29/2024

Islam Makhachev -650 vs. Dustin Poirier +475

One last shot for a longtime Lightweight contender here as he takes on another dominant champion. Islam Makhachev has been on a monstrous run on his way to the Lightweight title, where he has shown world-class grappling good enough to submit the likes of Charles Oliveira and an evolved striking game that he used to knock out Alexander Volkanovski in their rematch. Dustin Poirier earned another chance to claim the elusive undisputed title here by showing his devastating boxing off to knockout Benoit Saint-Denis in his last fight; although he showed some of his old bad habits in the grappling are still there as he gives up the back very frequently in scrambles.

I've got Makhachev to win by submission here. His grappling is on a different level than Poirier's, and if he gives up the back as he has before, Makhachev will take advantage and likely find a finish.

Pick: Makhachev O/U: Under 2.5 -175


Sean Strickland -227 vs. Paulo Costa +192

Middleweights who like to put on a show will face off in this five-round co-main clash. Sean Strickland is a high-pressure boxer with a strong jab and great cardio that helps him build as the fight goes on. Paulo Costa is a strong, powerful striker with good bodywork and incredible kicks; his cardio has been somewhat inconsistent, but he is rather durable.

At this price, I lean towards Costa as I feel he will have the power to slow the pressure of Strickland early, meaning he could take some rounds, and I also give him the finishing upside.

Pick: Costa O/U: Over 4.5 +105

Kevin Holland -280 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +240

An active veteran returns to Middleweight for this intriguing matchup. Kevin Holland is always fun with his in-fight trash talk, mixed with good boxing and a dangerous submission game. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a powerful striker who has moved down in weight over his career; he has had a problem on the ground, as he has been submitted multiple times.

I'll take Holland here as he has the tools to win this fight in striking and could make it easier for himself if he chooses to use his grappling advantage, although it's tough to know if he will do that.

Pick: Holland O/U: Over 1.5 -150


Jailton Almedia -290 vs. Alexandr Romanov +250

Heavyweight grapplers who can finish fights quickly face off in this high-stakes clash. Jailton Almeida is a dominant grappler who showed his strong wrestling works at a high level by taking down Curtis Blaydes early in his last fight, although that fight did raise a concern with his durability as he was seemingly in control but was finished after facing slight adversity. Alexandr Romanov has had an interesting career to follow as he has been very inconsistent, looking unstoppable at times; however, in fights like the Alexander Volkov fight, he looked horribly out of shape and gave up very early in the matchup.

I like Almeida to win this one. He will put pressure on Romanov early, and I don't see him being able to weather the storm to get back into the fight.

Pick: Almeida O/U: Under 1.5 -135

Randy Brown -175 vs. Elizeu Zaleski +150

Welterweights with slick styles open the main card here. Randy Brown is a flashy striker with a hands-down style and long reach; he has issues with his durability and defense, as he has been caught and hurt badly several times in his UFC career. Elizeu Zaleski is a wild kickboxer with some crazy highlights; he is up there in age but has proven he is still a tough out in matchups with grapplers Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Rinat Fakhretdinov.

I'll take Zaleski as the underdog here, as I believe he has the power to hurt Brown and can find a finish in what will be a striking match.

Pick: Zaleski O/U: Under 2.5 +100


Roman Kopylov +102 vs. Cesar Almeida -122

Middleweight strikers face off in this highly anticipated feature prelim showdown. Roman Kopylov is a kickboxer with fast kicks, especially early in fights; his grappling and cardio have failed him over his career. Cesar Almeida is a very experienced kickboxer on the fast track in MMA after a knockout win over Dylan Budka in his UFC debut.

I've got Almeida here as he will force Kopylov on the back foot and drag the fight out; his kickboxing background will also help him defend the kicking game from Kopylov.

Pick: Almedia O/U: Over 2.5 -105

Grant Dawson -510 vs. Joe Solecki +385

Lightweight grapplers will test their skills against each other here. Grant Dawson looks to bounce back here after getting finished early by Bobby Green his last time out; he is a good wrestler who wears down opponents and finds submissions later in fights. Joe Solecki is a good submission grappler with decent boxing, although he hasn't had much success in stepping up against tougher competition.

I'm going with Dawson here as I see him as the much better wrestler. This will help him control his position on the ground and avoid submissions before threatening his own.

Pick: Dawson O/U: Under 2.5 +160


Phil Rowe +140 vs. Jake Matthews -160

Welterweight veterans go head-to-head in this fun clash. Phil Rowe is a big and well-rounded fighter with good boxing and a solid submission attack; he has struggled to consistently make weight, seemingly hurting his durability, which is a concern. Jake Matthews has been a somewhat inconsistent fighter who has shown the skillset to compete at a high level; however, he sometimes neglects the grappling and can be content to fall behind in a striking match.

I lean towards Matthews here as he is the more dangerous fighter, although playing him at this price is difficult.

Pick: Matthews O/U: Under 2.5 +120

Niko Price +210 vs. Alex Morono -250

A Welterweight rematch goes down here over seven years after the first fight. Niko Price is an awkward and powerful striker who got a devastating knockout in the first fight, although he is coming off two knockout losses himself and has been injured, which keeps him from being active. Alex Morono has been a consistently underrated talent with good high-volume boxing and the ability to attack submissions when the opportunity presents itself, although he doesn't take damage well, which has cost him in some very winnable matchups.

It's hard to trust Morono against a powerful finisher at this price, but he has every advantage here on paper and is a deserving favorite.

Pick: Morono O/U: Under 1.5 +150


Mickey Gall +285 vs. Bassil Hafez -350

This is a Welterweight matchup with some history behind it. Mickey Gall returns here after over two years off; he is a talented submission grappler who can get into a brawl with his boxing, although it's not often best for him. Bassil Hafez got the better of Gall in a grappling match years ago, adding some intrigue to this matchup; he is coming off a wild debut where he nearly upset Jack Della Maddalena on very short notice, showing off his wrestling and durability.

I understand why his debut has left many excited about Hafez, but I cannot justify this steep price tag as I believe he is very hittable and may struggle with a more seasoned grappler. For those reasons, I'm taking the underdog shot on Gall here.

Pick: Gall O/U: Over 1.5 -185

Joselyne Edwards +155 vs. Ailin Perez -180

Bantamweights looking to establish their place in the division square off here. Joselyne Edwards is a tough veteran who has gone the distance in all of her UFC fights; she has had some poor showings lately and has struggled to make weight, which is cause for concern. Ailin Perez enters this one, having won each of her last two, showing significant improvements from her debut, especially in her ground game.

I'm taking Perez here because she is a much more physical fighter, which will likely help her dominate this matchup.

Pick: Perez O/U: Over 2.5 -295


Andre Lima -255 vs. Mitch Raposo +215

Flyweights open the card in what should be a fast-paced affair. Andre Lima comes in off a crazy debut that ended after his opponent bit his arm after some wild striking exchanges that showed the power Lima has. Mitch Raposo gets his chance in the UFC here after having been the top pick on The Ultimate Fighter before making an early exit from the show; he has a good ground game but is still very untested.

I'll pick Lima here as he is very dangerous and capable of keeping a high pace.

Pick: Lima O/U: Over 2.5 -155

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Elizeu Zaleski +130

Cesar Almeida +100

Mickey Gall +225

Jailton Almeida + Grant Dawson -125

Islam Makhachev by Submission +110

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