UFC 303 Odds Breakdown

UFC 303 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 25, 2024|

It is international fight week, and the UFC is putting on a stacked card of PPV action, headlined by the rematch between Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former champ Jiri Procházka. I went over every fight on this deep card to give my picks and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 6/24/2024

Alex Pereira -169 vs. Jiri Procházka +137

The Light Heavyweight title is on the line here as two devastating finishers meet again in our main event. Alex Pereira is on one of the most incredible runs in the sport's history, having used his world-class kickboxing to knock out four champions across two weight classes since joining the UFC; his grappling remains a weak point, although it has proven difficult to get past his striking to get him to the ground. Jiri Procházka looks for revenge here after having success early in the last matchup between these two before he was caught with a left hook and finished in round two; he has a very awkward striking style with explosive and dangerous techniques, often leaving himself open to take damage, especially from leg kicks, although he has insane durability and puts his trust in that often.

I'll take Procházka to win this time, as either man can be finished in the striking here, and if anyone is going to grapple, it will be Procházka giving me enough reason to take him at these odds.

Pick: Procházka O/U: Over 1.5 -192


Brian Ortega +118 vs. Diego Lopes -145

Featherweights will put their grappling on display in this fun co-main clash. Brian Ortega looks to keep his momentum going here after showing he can still get the job done when he took on Yair Rodriguez earlier this year and survived an early scare to secure a submission victory with the choke game that he has become known for over his career; his striking is alright as well although he is hittable and relies on his toughness at times. Diego Lopes has taken the UFC by storm with three straight first-round finishes, showing that he has a dangerous submission attack and big power in his hands, although, from his time outside the UFC, he has shown a tendency to brawl in the standup and slow down when the finish doesn't come early.

I've got Ortega here, as he is the much more proven fighter with the skills to match Lopes anywhere the fight goes.

Pick: Ortega O/U: Over 1.5 -222

Anthony Smith +124 vs. Roman Dolidze -152

An interesting matchup here at Light Heavyweight came together due to several cancellations around other scheduled fights. Anthony Smith is back here after a huge upset win over Vitor Petrino; despite the quick finish last time out, it remains clear Smith has seen his best days with his striking slowing down and trouble getting up from the bottom position. Roman Dolidze steps up in weight here for this short-notice matchup; he is a powerful puncher with very slick grappling, although he is low volume when striking and rarely pursues takedowns.

I lean towards Dolidze to find a finish here, as he is a strong and crafty fighter. However, I am not interested in betting on this fight because of its short-notice nature and uncertainty around Dolidze at his new weight.

Pick: Dolidze O/U: Under 2.5 +105


Mayra Bueno Silva -133 vs. Macy Chiasson +109

Bantamweight contenders square off here in this matchup with big title implications. Mayra Bueno Silva looks to bounce back from missing her chance at the title here; she is a dangerous submission artist with a very slick choke game, although she can accept bad positions in search of the finish, which costs her when fights go longer. Macy Chiasson is a big fighter for the weight with a solid clinch game, although she has struggled when stepping up in competition, having been finished by Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana.

I'll pick Silva to get a submission here, as there should be plenty of opportunity, and I can't trust Chiasson.

Pick: Silva O/U: Under 2.5 +155

Ian Garry -132 vs. Michael Page +108

Welterweight strikers open the main card here in this highly anticipated matchup. Ian Garry looks to stay perfect here using his high-paced striking attack, which includes a wide range of weapons with strong low kicks and fast hands; his durability remains a slight question mark, however, as Song Kenan dropped him badly, although he recovered to finish that fight and has had no other issues. Michael Page looks to build off an impressive UFC debut here with his unique, striking style that features a lot of in-and-out movement with fast, straight punches.

I really like Garry in this spot. We have traditionally had to pay a much steeper price to play him, and his youth and volume striking give him some significant advantages here.

Pick: Garry O/U: Over 2.5 -270


Joe Pyfer -270 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +210

Middleweights looking to bounce back from a loss clash here. Joe Pyfer is a big puncher who came into the UFC and scored three straight finishes before his last fight against Jack Hermansson, where he showed some cardio issues when he was unable to finish the craft veteran early. Marc-Andre Barriault is a high-pace grinder with solid boxing and a strong clinch game; he's also proven rather durable, having only one knockout loss over his career.

I've got Pyfer to get a knockout here, although I still think he wins if the fight gets extended, as he will likely pace himself better after the experience of his last outing.

Pick: Pyfer O/U: Under 2.5 -128

Cub Swanson +185 vs. Andre Fili -233

Featherweight veterans with a long history of fun fights between the two of them go head to head in this one. Cub Swanson is a slick striker who has put on some insane fights and has quite the highlight reel of finishes, although he is now over forty years old and has been inconsistent in recent performances. Andre Fili is a boxer with a fun style, although he has suffered several early knockout losses when facing power punchers like Joanderson Brito and Dan Ige.

I lean with Fili to get a finish here as he is much younger and was on a great run before facing Dan Ige.

Pick: Fili O/U: Under 2.5 -105


Charles Jourdain -125 vs. Jean Silva +102

Featherweight strikers will look to put on a show in this fantastic matchup. Charles Jourdain is a kickboxer with a fun style and a dangerous submission game; he keeps a high pace throughout fights and shows the ability to finish early and late. Jean Silva is a big puncher coming off an early knockout in his debut, although he has shown to slow down later in fights before his UFC run, having rarely gotten wins outside of round one.

I like Jourdain here, as he will be the higher-volume striker and has been durable during his UFC run, making it likely the fight will get extended, where he will likely have a cardio advantage.

Pick: Jourdain O/U: Over 2.5 -149

Payton Talbott -1429 vs. Yanis Ghemmouri +800

Showcase matchup here for a young Bantamweight to keep an eye on. Payton Talbott has become one of the hottest prospects in all of MMA since his breakout performance against Cameron Saaiman, where he showed a very patient and high IQ approach that led to a dominant knockout win. Yanis Gemmouri is a solid kickboxer with good kicks, although he has yet to show much to prove that he belongs at the UFC level.

Talbott is this size a favorite for a reason, but the price has gotten to a point where he is impossible to play straight, so if you are looking to bet this fight, I would recommend trying round two or props on Talbott as he has never had a round one finish before and did score a submission in his UFC debut.

Pick: Talbott O/U: Under 1.5 +107


Michelle Waterson-Gomez +144 vs. Gillian Robertson -179

Strawweight veterans square off in this interesting clash of styles. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is a very experienced fighter with a good kicking game, although she enters this one after losing six of her last seven fights. Gillian Robertson is a strong grappler with a great submission game, having finished three of her last four opponents on the ground.

At these odds, I lean toward Waterson-Gomez as the underdog as, despite her losing streak, it has been against top-tier competition, and she has a clear striking advantage here.

Pick: Waterson-Gomez O/U: Over 2.5 -169

Andrei Arlovski +220 vs. Martin Buday -278

A former Heavyweight champ is back in the octagon in this one, taking on another younger opponent. Andrei Arovski has stayed active for a very long time, adapting a slow-paced striking style that makes others match his pace. His age is a concern at this point, with him being 45 and coming off three straight losses. Martin Buday has had a solid UFC run on paper, although he has consistently faced low-level competition, and his last fight against Shamil Gaziev ended with him getting beat up badly.

The best bet for this fight is likely the over, with neither man being a very dangerous finisher, but I lean toward Buday as the pick despite his rough last performance.

Pick: Buday O/U: Over 2.5 -192


Carlos Hernandez +340 vs. Rei Tsuruya -455

An undefeated Flyweight makes his debut here in this fun fight. Carlos Hernandez has had some fun fights and proven to be a solid all-around fighter, although he has been finished when facing tougher competition like Allan Nascimento and Tatsuro Taira. Rei Tsuruya is an unbeaten finisher who comes into this off winning the Road to UFC tournament to earn a contract over other prospects from Asia.

I'll pick Tsuruya here, although it is tough to pay this steep a price for him when he is facing an opponent with much more high-level experience.

Pick: Tsuruya O/U: Under 2.5 -182

Ricky Simon -227 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +180

Bantamweights open the card in this big test for a fun prospect. Ricky Simon is a strong wrestler with solid boxing, but he is coming into this off back-to-back losses to other up-and-comers. Vinicius Oliveira comes in off a wild debut win where he scored an insane third-round knockout, showing his toughness and ability to keep a pace through three rounds.

I'm taking Simon here as I feel his wrestling and experience will be too much for Oliveira right now.

Pick: Simon O/U: Over 2.5 -120


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Jiri Procházka +150

Brian Ortega +130

Ian Garry -115

Joe Pyfer (-200) + Payton Talbott (-800) -145

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