Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 8/15/2024

Dricus Du Plessis +102 vs. Israel Adesanya -125

This Middleweight rivalry will finally be settled in our main event as two dangerous strikers face off. Dricus Du Plessis is an all-action powerhouse with an awkward kickboxing style that mixes in high-level grappling, where his physical strength really shows, although he can be countered on his blitzes as was shown against Brad Tavares and Darren Till. Israel Adesanya is a slick kickboxer with a long reach that he uses well to manage distance and counter opponents entries between hammering leg kicks at range. He has been controlled with grappling several times before, which is a concern as Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, and Jan Blachowicz were each able to take rounds off Adesanya using control time either on the ground or in the clinch.

I've got Adesanya to reclaim his belt. I feel he will be able to keep things close early, using his movement to avoid taking big shots and taking over as the fight goes on and Du Plessis starts to slow down. His counter-striking and grappling defense are the keys to victory here.

Prediction: Adesanya by 5th Round KO

Kai Kara-France +139 vs. Steve Erceg -172

Flyweight's looking to work their way to another shot at the title clash in this high-stakes co-main clash. Kai Kara-France is a powerful striker with a long reach for the weight that he takes advantage of with powerful boxing combinations; he has also developed some of the best grappling defense in the division with a very high takedown defense percentage. Steve Erceg burst onto the scene with a competitive fight for the title against Alexandre Pantoja just a few months ago, where he showed more of the solid boxing that earned his highlight knockout over Matt Schnell and that his ground game held up at the highest level despite coming up short against the champion.

I took Kara-France as the underdog because I feel this may actually be a worse matchup for Erceg than Pantoja. Kara-France's striking ability and grappling defense make it more difficult for Erceg to implement his offense, and as we saw against Alessandro Costa, Erceg can be forced backward by hard hitters.

Prediction: Kara-France by Split Decision

Mateusz Gamrot -345 vs. Dan Hooker +265

Lightweights with opposite styles square off in this exciting matchup. Mateusz Gamrot is a fast-paced wrestler with incredible chain wrestling skills and cardio, which he showed in his main event win over Arman Tsarukyan. However, he is very hittable on the feet, having eaten some big shots during his UFC run despite not having suffered a knockout loss. Dan Hooker is a tall and long striker with dangerous knees in the clinch and solid boxing on the outside, which helped him earn a big comeback win over Jalin Turner his last time out. One thing is he has rarely faced high-level grapplers, with the Islam Makhachev fight being on very short notice, which makes it difficult to gauge his skill on the ground.

I like Gamrot here. He has displayed his grappling skills against some very tough matchups, which makes me think he will have a massive advantage there despite the power difference on the feet.

Prediction: Gamrot by 2nd Round Submission

Tai Tuivasa +185 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -233

Hard-hitting Heavyweight strikers collide in this must-see matchup featuring two fan favorites. Tai Tuivasa is a pure brawler who has struggled lately, losing four in a row against some of the tougher opponents in the division, having had some moments of success with his boxing and leg kicks, but his grappling and durability have let him down each time. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a solid kickboxer with serious power, which he has displayed with several knockouts in under a minute during his UFC run, although he also does have good cardio, having scored a win over Alistair Overeem in the final round and won his last fight with Shamil Gaziev by outlasting him.

I'll pick Rozenstruik here as I see him being the more technical striker and countering Tuivasa with big shots early and often.

Prediction: Rozenstruik by 1st Round TKO

Li Jingliang +270 vs. Carlos Prates -357

Welterweight strikers open the main card in this fun matchup. Li Jingliang returns from a long layoff here looking to pull off an upset as he did against Santiago Ponzinibbio years ago using his dangerous boxing. Carlos Prates is a powerful kickboxer with a sniper-like approach that he has shown off with two highlight knockouts over Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke.

I lean towards Prates here, but it's a pass at this price as there are too many questions around this fight for me, with it being a step up in competition against a long layoff.

Prediction: Prates by 2nd Round TKO

Junior Tafa -132 vs. Valter Walker +108

Heavyweight finishers are looking to return to the win column in the featured prelim. Junior Tafa is a powerful kickboxer with very heavy hands and kicks, although he lacks much speed, as was shown in his last fight against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. His grappling has also been poor, with Mohammed Usman dominating him in the wrestling. Valter Walker had a disappointing UFC debut, although he appears to be in much better shape now, looking to return to the form he had when he finished four straight opponents to get to this level.

I took Walker here because, despite his tough debut, he is going to have a big grappling advantage, which I see him using to steal rounds away from Tafa.

Prediction: Walker by Decision

Josh Culibao -152 vs. Ricardo Ramos +123

Featherweights, both with a history of fun fights, clash in this one. Josh Culibao is a long striker who keeps a solid pace over his fights, although he has been controlled on the ground before. Ricardo Ramos is a slick striker with a solid ground game, although he has been caught in a submission in each of his last two and has questionable cardio.

I'll pick Culibao as I trust him to be the smarter fighter with a higher output and better cardio.

Prediction: Culibao by Decision

Casey O'Neill +119 vs. Luana Santos -147

Two Flyweights looking to push into the rankings of this deep division square off here. Casey O'Neill is a long fighter with a good offense that includes strong striking and ground and pound, although she has lost her last two, with the most recent being a very bad showing against Ariane Lipski. Luana Santos is a dangerous submission artist, with four of her eight wins coming by tapout, although she has shown questionable cardio and striking in her debut against Stephanie Egger.

I lean towards O'Neill here as she will have considerable advantages in the striking and cardio departments. If she can avoid the grappling early, it becomes her fight to lose at an underdog price.

Prediction: O'Neill by Decision

Jack Jenkins -769 vs. Herbert Burns +520

Featherweight finishers collide in this fun matchup featuring one of many Australians fighting at home. Jack Jenkins is a good striker with a signature legkick that has ruined many opponents' nights, although he also has solid ground and pound when on top. Herbert Burns is a decent submission grappler who struggles with getting the fight to the ground on his terms, and striking, not to mention his cardio is very concerning, with him completely gassing out against Bill Algeo after a round.

I'm picking Jenkins as he should defend the grappling and have a large cardio edge, but these odds are far too steep for me to make any bet on this fight.

Prediction: Jenkins by Round 3 TKO

Tom Nolan -1250 vs. Alex Reyes +700

A native prospect gets a showcase matchup at Lightweight. Tom Nolan is a tall striker with dangerous knees and punches, although he has shown some serious durability concerns, being dropped in both his UFC fights, which weren't against great competition. Alex Reyes gets another shot here after being knocked out in round one of each of his UFC showings so far; he does have some early submissions on his resume from before his time in the promotion, although his last win was in 2017.

Nolan is going to make quick work of this one, as the odds suggest, as his power is too much for Reyes.

Prediction: Nolan by 1st Round KO

Kenan Song -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +143

Veteran Welterweights go head to head here early on the card. Kenan Song is a tough striker with solid boxing and pretty good submission defense, although he can be controlled on the ground. Ricky Glenn is a gritty wrestler who is moving up in weight here after suffering back-to-back first-round knockout losses.

I'll pick Song here, as he is going to be landing hard shots whenever they are standing, and I don't see Glenn submitting him or holding him down for three rounds.

Prediction: Song by 3rd Round TKO

Stewart Nicoll -227 vs. Jesus Aguilar +185

Flyweights open the card, with the first Australian of the card entering the octagon. Stewart Nicoll makes his debut here with an undefeated record, he is rather untested when it comes to competition, but he has dominated thus far using a solid top game with powerful ground and pound, helping finish seven of his eight wins. Jesus Aguilar is a decent grappler with a good guillotine that has earned most of his wins, although he is often easy to take down as he tries to get a submission, and his short reach limits his striking ability.

I lean towards Aguilar at these odds as he has shown his skills at this level and could easily score a submission or take a decision here.

Prediction: Aguilar by 1st Round Submission