UFC 314 Odds Breakdown

UFC 314 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
April 10, 2025|
8

The UFC is back on PPV this weekend with a stacked card from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, headlined by former Champion and fan favorite Alexander Volkanovski taking on fast-rising contender Diego Lopes for the vacant Featherweight title. I went over that matchup and every other fight on this stacked card to give my predictions and the Underdog Best Bet of The Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 4/10/2025

Alexander Volkanovski -128 vs. Diego Lopes +105

The newly vacant Featherweight title is on the line in this high-stakes main event. Alexander Volkanovski looks to reclaim the title he defended five times with his incredibly technical and powerful striking game, along with a dominant ground-and-pound attack and grappling defense that helped him escape a deep choke from Brian Ortega and survive a full round of Islam Makhachev being on his back. Diego Lopes has had a meteoric rise to this opportunity since coming in on short notice against Movsar Evloev less than two years ago; since then, he has won five straight fights, showing a combination of devastating power and nasty submission skills with an improved cardio game from the Dan Ige fight to the Brian Ortega fight.

I'm picking Volkanovski to get the belt back here as although I am concerned about his durability coming back from multiple knockout losses, he is the much more skilled fighter, especially on the feet, and I know he has five-round cardio. At the same time, I am not sure Lopes will be nearly as dangerous come round three, which gives him a short window to catch a very defensively responsible Volkanovski.

Prediction: Volkanovski by 5th Round TKO

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Michael Chandler +126 vs. Paddy Pimblett -156

Exciting Lightweights collide in this must-see co-main event. Michael Chandler is an always entertaining powerhouse with high-level wrestling and good power in his striking, although his defense and fight IQ have been inconsistent, to say the least. Paddy Pimblett is a dangerous grappler with decent striking, coming off a quick submission against Bobby Green, where he showed his slick skills on the ground, although his cardio has not been tested since he gassed badly against Tony Ferguson.

I'll go with Pimblett in this one, as he is a much younger fighter who is more dangerous on the ground and has good enough striking to find a finish there with Chandler's questionable durability.

Prediction: Pimblett by 2nd Round Submission

Bryce Mitchell +185 vs. Jean Silva -233

This grudge match at Featherweight has many fans eager for violence. Bryce Mitchell is a strong wrestler with solid submission skills who has competed with strong competition over the years, such as Dan Ige, Josh Emmett, and Ilia Topuria. Jean Silva is a powerful striker who comes in having finished his first four UFC opponents, although he has yet to be tested against ranked opposition, and his grappling is questionable.

I lean towards Silva despite these being steep odds, as although I have some concerns about his takedown defense, I like his getup game, and I see Mitchell struggling to close distance without taking too much damage.

Prediction: Silva by 2nd Round TKO

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Yair Rodriguez -200 vs. Patrcio 'Pitbull' Freire +160

A fresh face with plenty of experience takes on a former title challenger in this pivotal Featherweight clash. Yair Rodriguez is a wild striker with some dangerous submissions off his back, but his wrestling is a weak point, with guys who are not wrestlers like Max Holloway being able to take him down repeatedly. Pitbull finally makes his debut here, and although his best days may be behind him, he remains a skilled and experienced striker with dangerous boxing and a good top game on the ground with a nasty guillotine.

I'm taking the newcomer in Pitbull as if he can avoid taking too much damage early, the striking will be close, and he can mix in some grappling, where he will have a significant advantage. I also trust his cardio more if this reaches the third round. With that, Patricio Pitbull Moneyline is this week's underdog best bet of the week.

Prediction: Pitbull by Decision (Best Bet)

Nikita Krylov -182 vs. Dominick Reyes +147

Light Heavyweights are looking to push into the title picture as they square off here to open the main card. Nikita Krylov is a well-rounded finisher with a wild style who has struggled to reach the cage in recent years. Dominick Reyes looks to continue his resurgence here after back-to-back knockout wins over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith, although his durability was not tested in those fights and could still be an issue with him being knocked out three times in a row before those wins.

I lean towards Krylov here as I trust him a lot more from a durability standpoint, and he has the grappling upside.

Prediction: Krylov by 1st Round TKO

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Dan Ige +143 vs. Sean Woodson -175

It's an intriguing matchup of strikers here in this Featherweight featured-prelim. Dan Ige is a stocky striker with insane durability and serious knockout power, as he has shown against Damon Jackson and Andre Fili. Sean Woodson is a tall and slick boxer who uses his reach to keep opponents at range, although when blitzed by guys like Alex Caceres, he has had trouble.

I'll pick Ige as the underdog here, as he has all the finishing upside, and I believe he can get inside Woodson's reach enough to cause more damage.

Prediction: Ige by 2nd Round KO

Virna Jandiroba -149 vs. Xiaonan Yan +122

Strawweights looking to earn the next shot at the title go head-to-head in this one. Virna Jandiroba is a strong and dangerous grappler with excellent control on top and a submission game that she used to finish Amanda Lemos her last time out. Xiaonan Yan is a long striker who picks opponents apart at the range, but her grappling has proven to be a weak point despite some improvements shown in the Tabatha Ricci fight.

I like Jandiroba here as she has proven to have elite grappling skills for the division, and I don't believe Yan has made the necessary improvements to stop her from getting there.

Prediction: Jandiroba by 1st Round Submission

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Chase Hooper -833 vs. Jim Miller +540

Lightweight grapplers born generations apart collide in this fun matchup. Chase Hooper is a tricky grappler who has made clear improvements since joining the UFC at a very young age. Jim Miller is the most experienced man in UFC history, having shown a strong ground game and decent boxing, although his age is becoming a concern as he is forty-one and has taken a lot of damage.

Hooper is the rightful favorite here with his youth and grappling advantages. Still, these odds are very steep to take against a veteran Miller who has the striking and experience advantages. Passing on this fight from a betting perspective.

Prediction: Hooper by 2nd Round Submission

Darren Elkins +265 vs. Julian Erosa -345

Veteran Featherweights with a long history of entertaining fights between them square off here. Darren Elkins is a tough grappler known for his ability to take damage and grind out wins, although his age and durability have caused a decline. Julian Erosa is an exciting finisher who keeps high pace striking and has a nasty submission game that he has used on guys like Ricardo Ramos and Christian Rodriguez, although his chin is a serious concern, with him having suffered seven knockout losses.

I'll go with Erosa to get a finish here as he has a massive striking advantage along with the grappling to finish there, and he will not gas out like some of Elkins's past opponents.

Prediction: Erosa by 3rd Round TKO

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Sedriques Dumas +160 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk -200

This is an interesting matchup at Middleweight between two exciting fighters who could use a big win. Sedriques Dumas is a tall and long fighter who has developed his game from a kickboxer to more of a grappler since joining the UFC, although he struggles with physicality. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a powerful striker who constantly pressures opponents, although his grappling has looked terrible, having been submitted three times in his last five fights.

I'm going with Oleksiejczuk as, despite his deficiencies on the ground, we saw Dumas struggle to take down Denis Tiuiulin, which leads me to believe Oleksiejczuk can keep this standing where he will do much more damage.

Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by 1st Round KO

Sumudaerji -175 vs. Mitch Raposo +143

It's a fun veteran vs. prospect matchup early on the card at Flyweight. Sumudaerji is a tall striker with good weapons at range but struggles with grappling, having been submitted in two of his last three fights. Mitch Raposo is a young and athletic prospect coming off a tough debut matchup against Andre Lima, where he wasn't able to show much of the well-rounded offensive game he showed on his regional tape.

I bet Raposo as the underdog here, as he has the wrestling pedigree to take this fight to the ground, and his striking is good enough to keep it close or hurt Sumudaerji as we saw Charles Johnson do.

Prediction: Raposo by 2nd Round Submission

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Tresean Gore +290 vs. Marco Tulio -385

Middleweight finishers look to make a name for themselves in this must-see matchup. Tresean Gore is a stocky striker with big power and a strong guillotine choke that he has used to secure back-to-back wins. Marco Tulio looks to build off a strong UFC debut here after showing off his dangerous knockout power against Ihor Potieria.

I'll go with Tulio to find a knockout here, as I feel he will be the higher-output fighter putting the pressure on, and I don't trust Gore's durability after Cody Brundage knocked him out.

Prediction: Tulio by 1st Round TKO

Nora Cornelle -182 vs. Hailey Cowan +147

Bantamweights, each looking to bounce back from a loss, open the card here. Nora Cornelle is an aggressive striker with a high finishing rate for the division. Hailey Cowan returns from a two-year layoff here, having shown decent grappling skill in her UFC debut despite the loss to Jamey-Lyn Horth.

I'll pick Cornelle here as she has been the much more active fighter against tougher competition, and she will have a massive striking advantage.

Prediction: Cornelle by Decision