The UFC is back on PPV this weekend with a card headlined by two title fights as Merab Dvalishvili looks to defend his Bantamweight title in a rematch against Sean O'Malley and Julianna Pena takes on Kayla Harrison for the Women's Bantamweight title in the co-main event from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. I went over those fights and every other matchup on the card to give my picks, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 6/5/2025
The Bantamweight title is on the line in this rematch. Merab Dvalishvili has been on a dominant run with his relentless pace and high-level grappling, having broken down every opponent he has faced since 2018, although he has been hurt early in several of his fights, like against Marlon Moraes and Henry Cejudo. Sean O'Malley is a long and sharp striker with serious knockout power and underrated cardio, as demonstrated by his impressive output against both Kris Moutinho and Chito Vera.
At these odds, I have to pick O'Malley as going into the last fight, the odds were even, and I don't believe that that result justifies this large of a shift as we saw O'Malley find some success with the striking despite not finding the knockout shot that he needed to get the victory last time. Despite Merab's success, we have still seen him hurt by less dangerous strikers than O'Malley, leaving a clear path for the now sizable underdog.
Prediction: O'Malley by 3rd Round TKO
Strong grapplers with long championship histories clash here for the Women's Bantamweight title. Julianna Pena is a tough grappler who rushes her opponents to try and get them down, which often leaves her open to big strikes, as Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington both capitalized on by dropping her in her last two fights. Kayla Harrison is a freakishly strong wrestler with dominant top control and a great ability to do damage or find submissions when working from those positions.
I see Harrison dominating this matchup and securing a finish, as Pena has struggled against stronger grapplers in the past, with her takedown defense being a weak point in her game.
Prediction: Harrison by 2nd Round TKO
After a late cancellation weeks ago, these Middleweights will finally settle things here. Kelvin Gastelum is a durable and high-paced striker with good boxing skills but a questionable ground game, as seen against Sean Brady and Jack Hermansson. Joe Pyfer is a powerful finisher with knockout power in his hands and a good submission game as well, although his cardio failed him in the later rounds against Jack Hermansson.
I'll go with Pyfer to get a decision or submission here, as I see his power and physical advantages being too much for Gastelum. However, Gastelum's durability makes him difficult to knock out, which leads me to look at Pyfer's other paths to victory.
Prediction: Pyfer by Decision
The highly anticipated debut of a champion from outside of the UFC goes down here at Bantamweight. Mario Bautista is a battle-tested veteran with a well-rounded skill set and the ability to maintain a very high pace. Patchy Mix is a phenomenal grappler with expertise in working off the back, coming in with a lot of hype, although he has been away for over a year since his last fight, which I felt he lost against Magomed Magomedov, largely due to his poor striking defense.
I like Bautista at these odds because I see his game matching up well against Mix, with the striking advantage likely going to Bautista, and his grappling is stronger than that of many of Mix's opponents in Bellator. With that, Mario Bautista MoneyLine is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.
Prediction: Bautista by Decision (Best Bet)
Veteran Welterweights known for putting on exciting fights square off in this one. Vicente Luque is a dangerous finisher who once had a granite chin, although that has now been cracked, and he has not looked the same in recent years. Kevin Holland is an always-exciting striker with a tricky submission game and impressive power to complement his long reach.
I'm taking Holland here, as Luque has not looked good when facing solid competition in recent years. For his flaws, Holland has a lot of physical ability, which I see as being too much for Luque to overcome.
Prediction: Holland by 1st Round TKO
Flyweight prospects collide in this exciting featured prelim. Bruno Silva is a tough boxer who has demonstrated his ability to absorb punishment while still seeking the finish, as seen in his victory over Cody Durden. Joshua Van is as active as anyone on the roster and has looked better with each outing, his boxing has been tremendous, and he has significantly improved his grappling since the early days of his career.
The price on Silva is tempting, considering his finishing instinct and Van's knockout loss to Charles Johnson in mind, but I'm picking Van in this one, as I see him overwhelming Silva in the later rounds with his volume.
Prediction: Van by Decision
Powerful Light Heavyweights collide, looking to keep their win streaks intact. Azamat Murzakanov is a tank who comes in with an unbeaten record, including four UFC wins, three of which came by knockout, including his last against Alonzo Menifield. Brendson Ribeiro is a well-rounded finisher who comes in off an impressive submission victory against Diyar Nurgozhay, where he was a massive underdog.
Murzakanov should get the win here, as he has a significant advantage in striking skills and power, as well as being the more durable of the two.
Prediction: Murzakanov by 1st Round KO
Ranked Heavyweights square off here in this one. Serghei Spivac is a strong wrestler who executes takedowns well and possesses good finishing skills when on the ground; however, his striking has been an issue when he cannot establish his wrestling dominance. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a powerful boxer who has developed a solid ground game, as he showed against Robelis Despaigne, although he cannot be trusted to push much of a pace and hasn't faced top-level competition yet.
I'll take Cortes-Acosta here, as Spivac has struggled when unable to force a grappling match, and I believe WCA has good enough wrestling to keep it upright and do enough damage.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by 3rd Round TKO
A late change of opponents leaves us with this fun Welterweight matchup. Khaos Williams is a strong knockout puncher who looks to bounce back from his first career submission loss here after Gabriel Bonfim choked him out last fight. Andreas Gustafsson is a gritty fighter who likes to get in close and work from the clinch to overwhelm his opponents early, although when extended late into fights, he has struggled.
I'll go with Williams here as he is the more experienced fighter who has a clear striking advantage and has proven very difficult to submit.
Prediction: Williams by 3rd Round KO
It's a fun matchup here in the deep women's Flyweight division. Ariane Lipski is a skilled fighter with good finishing skills on the ground, although her performances have been inconsistent. Cong Wang is a dangerous kickboxer with real knockout power in her hands, although she has not proven much against high-level MMA competition.
I like Wang to get a finish here, as she has proven to have punishing power in her hands, and we have seen Lipski finished on several occasions.
Prediction: Wang by 2nd Round TKO
Featherweight finishers looking to make a statement square off in this prelim matchup. Joo Sang Yoo makes his debut here as an undefeated prospect who has shown a well-rounded game, although he has yet to face much tough competition. Jeka Saragih is a wild striker with dangerous power, as shown against Lucas Alexander, although he doesn't have a strong ground game, which cost him against Westin Wilson.
I like Sang Yoo to get a submission here, as we have seen Saragih struggle when forced to grapple, and Sang Yoo has a ground game good enough to dominate here.
Prediction: Sang Yoo by 1st Round Submission
Up-and-coming lightweights square off here, looking to establish themselves in this deep division. Quillan Salkilld looks to build off an impressive debut here after knocking out Anshul Jubli in under a minute earlier this year. Yanal Ashmouz is a durable striker with a big right hand, which he showcased in his knockout win over Sam Patterson, although he is small for the division, often giving up height and reach.
I'll go with Salkilld here as he is the longer and more technical striker who has demonstrated equal, if not greater, power than Ashmouz.
Prediction: Salkilld by Decision
Lightweights open the card with this short-notice clash. MarQuel Mederos is a good volume striker with strong boxing, although his wrestling nearly cost him in a close fight with Austin Hubbard, where he was controlled for long stretches. Mark Choinski steps in on short notice as an undefeated submission specialist who has looked vulnerable in the striking department, including early in his last fight, where his opponent was walking him down without issue.
I lean towards Mederos here, as I see him landing hard strikes early and often. However, at these odds, it's worth noting that I have concerns that Choinski could use his grappling to control long portions of the fight.
Prediction: Mederos by 2nd Round TKO