UFC 318 Odds Breakdown

UFC 318 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
July 16, 2025|
4

The UFC is back with a big-time card of PPV action headlined by the BMF trilogy fight between former Featherweight champion Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier, who will be fighting for the final time in his home state at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. I went over the entire card to give my predictions and bets, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 7/16/2025

Max Holloway -145 vs. Dustin Poirier +118

A legendary career will reach its conclusion in this trilogy match at Lightweight. Max Holloway makes the move back up in weight here, bringing his signature style of high volume striking back to this division for the first time since his legendary knockout win over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, where he looked as good as ever, although in his last fight, he did suffer his first ever knockout loss to Ilia Topuria. Dustin Poirier makes the walk for one final time here as one of the most exciting fighters of all time with his powerful boxing attack and wilingness to trade leading to him being involved in some of the greatest wars in the history of the sport, many of which he came of on top of like his first matchup with Justin Gaethje, the Dan Hooker fight, and his second fight with Max Holloway.

I'm leaning towards Holloway as a spoiler here, as I never like picking fighters going into their retirement fight, and Holloway has still looked great in his last few fights.

Prediction: Holloway by 4th Round TKO

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Paulo Costa +185 vs. Roman Kopylov -233

Middleweight strikers square off after having their matchup pushed back by several weeks. Paulo Costa is a powerhouse offensively who still carries dangerous knockout power despite his recent results, which have all been against the best in the division. Roman Kopylov is a fast kickboxer who breaks down his opponents with brutal damage from his kicks, as he did to earn a last-second stoppage in his last fight against Chris Curtis.

I like Kopylov, as he has been a much more active fighter who will have a speed advantage, and I'm not confident in Costa's ability to perform well, given the poor quality of some of his recent performances.

Prediction: Kopylov by Decision

Kevin Holland -476 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +350

A fun matchup at Welterweight sees two men who were originally scheduled to fight at UFC 279 finally settle their differences. Kevin Holland is a tall striker who stays active here and looks to show his dangerous finishing skills again after submitting Vicente Luque last time out. Daniel Rodriguez is a tough boxer who is comfortable in a brawl and carries power late, as he showed by knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio in his last fight.

I'll go with Holland in this one, as I feel he is a level above Rodriguez. He is much younger and has a better ground game, leaving Rodriguez with no clear path to victory.

Prediction: Holland by 1st Round TKO

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Dan Ige -222 vs. Patricio Pitbull +175

Two veterans looking to build some momentum collide here at Featherweight. Dan Ige is a hard-hitting boxer who has proven nearly impossible to finish, even against the division's best. Patricio Pitbull is a well-rounded veteran looking to bounce back from a rough UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez, where he looked well past his prime.

I'll pick Ige, as it has become clear the Pitbull's best days are behind him, and Ige carries serious power and durability, which makes him a tough out for anyone.

Prediction: Ige by Decision

Michael Johnson +420 vs. Daniel Zellhuber -588

A dangerous veteran takes on a top prospect here at Lightweight. Michael Johnson is a veteran known for his lightning-fast hands, which helped him score a highlight knockout over Ottman Azaitar in his last fight. Daniel Zellhuber is a tall striker coming off a wild fight of the year, where he lost a split decision to Esteban Ribovics in a fight that showcased his toughness and ability to go the distance in a hard-fought three rounds against another young striker.

I'll take the bigger and younger Zellhuber in this one, as I feel he can inflict enough damage on Johnson to finish him. He was badly hurt in his last fight, but I trust his durability much more than Johnson's, especially at this stage of his career.

Prediction: Zellhuber by 2nd Round KO

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Kyler Philips +124 vs. Vinicius Oliveira -154

Fantastic matchup here at Banatamweight between two very exciting fighters to watch. Kyler Phillips is a well-rounded offensive fighter with slick kickboxing and strong grappling, although his cardio has failed him several times as he spends a lot of energy early. Vinicius Oliveira is a high-paced striker who puts together big combinations and applies pressure throughout all three rounds, although he suffered several knockout losses before his UFC debut against lower-level competition, which remains a concern.

I like taking Phillips as the underdog in this spot, as he has the skills to match or beat Oliveira anywhere, is much more experienced at the UFC level, and has traditionally been a large favourite. At the same time, Oliveira has closed as a sizeable underdog in each of his last two fights against opponents who are worse than Phillips. With that, Kyler Phillips' Moneyline is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Phillips by Decision (Best Bet)

Marvin Vettori +170 vs. Brendan Allen -213

Grudge match here between two ranked Middleweight grapplers. Marvin Vettori is a veteran who has competed against the best in the division for years, showcasing strong wrestling and decent boxing, along with incredible durability. Brendan Allen is a grappler with good ability to work off the back, which has earned him several submission wins, although his cardio and durability are questionable at times.

I'll go with Allen to use his grappling to control or submit Vettori here. I feel he will be a step ahead on the ground, although the difference in durability gives me some hesitation with this pick.

Prediction: Allen by Decision

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Francisco Prado -149 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +122

Welterweight strikers square off in this fun prelim matchup. Francisco Prado is a young and durable striker with solid knockout power, although he has been picked apart at range by higher-level opponents. Nikolay Veretennikov is a kickboxer who is coming off a loss to Austin Vanderford, where his weak grappling game cost him.

I'm taking Veretennikov in this one, as this is a much better matchup for him than his recent fights, such as Vanderford, who is a grappler, and Danny Barlow, who is significantly better than Prado. I expect him to use his size advantage to keep the fight striking and win a decision.

Prediction: Veretennikov by Decision

Ateba Gautier -556 vs. Robert Valentin +400

Two dangerous finishers collide in this one at Middleweight. Ateba Gautier is a powerhouse who enters with minimal experience, although he has shown serious knockout power early, as few have been able to survive past the first round. Robert Valentin is a wildman who looks to bounce back from losses to Ryan Loder and Torrez Finney, which exposed big problems with his grappling.

I'll pick Gautier, but at this price tag, this fight is an easy pass as Gautier is still untested at this level, and Valentin is a dangerous guy despite his technical deficiencies.

Prediction: Gautier by 1st Round TKO

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Adam Fugitt +420 vs. Islam Dulatov -588

An intriguing prospect makes his debut here at Welterweight against a tough veteran. Adam Fugitt is a big striker who has shown toughness against fighters like Michael Morales, although he hasn't been able to show much offense. Islam Dulatov debuts on Dana White's Contender Series, where he showcased serious knockout power with a nasty elbow, and he also has several submissions on his record, demonstrating a well-rounded skillset.

I'll take Dulatov to get a finish here, as he has impressed me, and I don't believe Fugitt will have much success at the UFC level.

Prediction: Dulatov by 2nd Round TKO

Jimmy Crute -313 vs. Marcin Prachnio +240

Light Heavyweights in desperate need of a win square off in this prelim. Jimmy Crute was once a top prospect who showed finishing ability wherever the fight went, although in recent years, he has struggled and even briefly retired after his loss to Alonzo Menifield. Marcin Prachio is a kickboxer with decent volume, although he lacks a significant finishing threat or effective ground game.

I'm picking Crute here, as he is the more dangerous and well-rounded fighter, although this price tag is difficult to justify given that he has not won in several years.

Prediction: Crute by 1st Round Submission

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Ryan Spann -217 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +175

Two Heavyweights looking to return to the win column face off here. Ryan Spann is an explosive finisher early with big power and good chokes, although he is not very durable and can't push much of a pace. Lukasz Brzeski is a striker who has struggled greatly in the UFC, including suffering three first-round knockout losses in his last four fights, although he did beat the now-streaking Valter Walker.

Spann should finish this one early, as Brzeski has taken a lot of damage and shown he can't handle powerful punchers at the UFC level.

Prediction: Spann by 1st Round KO

Brunno Ferreira -588 vs. Jackson McVey +400

Fast finishers go head-to-head in this one at Middleweight. Brunno Ferreira is a wild striker with explosive power, although his defense and cardio suffer due to his aggressive style. Jackson McVey makes his debut here, boasting a record of quick finishes, having demonstrated decent power and good submissions.

This is too much, too soon for McVey. He hasn't faced any adversity yet in his career, and Ferreira is going to test him a lot from the very beginning, which I'm not confident he will survive.

Prediction: Ferreira by 1st Round KO

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Carli Judice -345 vs. Nicolle Caliari +260

Flyweights looking to make a name for themselves open the card here. Carli Judice is a striker with real finishing ability, as she showed in her last fight, where she knocked out Yuneisy Duben in round one. Nicolle Caliari is a submission grappler who entered the UFC having finished four straight opponents before losing her debut to Ernesta Kareckaite in a close decision.

I'll go with Judice here, as she has a clear advantage in striking and cardio, while she can also defend against Caliari's grappling.

Prediction: Judice by 3rd Round TKO