UFC 321 Odds Breakdown

UFC 321 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
October 24, 2025|
2

The UFC returns to PPV this weekend with a loaded card headlined by Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall taking on challenger Ciryl Gane, along with a vacant Strawweight title fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern in the co-main event. I went over the entire card to give my predictions and bets, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 10/24/2025

Tom Aspinall -357 vs. Ciryl Gane +300

The much-anticipated clash for the undisputed Heavyweight championship goes down here in the main event. Tom Aspinall is an incredibly fast guy for his size, with a well-rounded skill set that has seen him finish all his UFC bouts in under two rounds, via a mix of knockouts and submissions. Ciryl Gane is a slick striker with phenomenal movement and timing, though he lacks finishing ability and has struggled when forced to grapple against guys like Jon Jones, Francis Ngannou, and, more recently, Alexander Volkov.

I've got Aspinall to defend his title here, as his advantage on the ground is evident, and he has the striking to end the fight there as well.

Prediction: Aspinall by 1st Round Submission

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Virna Jandiroba +136 vs. Mackenzie Dern -154

The vacant Strawweight title will be claimed here in our co-main event. Virna Jandiroba is a dominant grappler who has used her skills on the ground to win her last five fights, most recently a decision over former title challenger Xiaonan Yan. Mackenzie Dern is an aggressive and dangerous submission artist with improved striking, though her defence isn't the best, leaving her vulnerable against harder hitters.

I lean towards Dern here, as she is the higher-volume striker who maintains a higher output while having a ground game, which will make it difficult for Jandiroba to get the control time she usually does.

Prediction: Dern by Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov -667 vs. Mario Bautista +520

Top Bantamweights square off in this high-stakes clash. Umar Nurmagomedov is a skilled fighter with a strong kicking game and high-level wrestling, which helped him give the champion, Merab Dvalishvili, a close fight by winning the early rounds. Mario Bautista is a pressure fighter with excellent conditioning and good fight IQ, as shown by his ability to use his wrestling and striking in different matchups based on his opponent's skill set.

These odds are steep, but I have a hard time going against Nurmagomedov here as I believe he will have the advantage wherever the fight plays out, and I don't see cardio being an issue with this only being a three-rounder.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

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Alexander Volkov +175 vs. Jailton Almeida -200

A pivotal matchup here could determine the next title challenger at Heavyweight. Alexander Volkov is a tall guy, even for this weight, with good striking and an improved ground game, as he showed in his rematch with Ciryl Gane, which he lost in a highly controversial decision. Jailton Almeida is a dangerous grappler with an exceptional ability to get to top position and maintain it, or to work for a submission, even against skilled grapplers, although his durability remains a major concern.

I like Almeida here, as although Volkov has improved his ground game, we have seen Almeida take down credentialed grapplers before, and I see him getting enough control to win a decision. Volkov has only been submitted once since 2010, which makes me lean away from that as Almeida's path to victory.

Prediction/Bet: Almeida by Decision

Aleksandar Rakic -111 vs. Azamat Murzakanov -102

Powerful Light Heavyweight strikers collide to open the main card. Aleksandar Rakic is a skilled kickboxer who has faced many of the best in the division while holding his own, showing good speed and technique, though he can be low-output at times, especially later in fights. Azamat Murzakanov is an explosive knockout puncher with an undefeated record, having ended four of his five UFC outings by knockout.

I'll go with Murzakanov here as he is the more dangerous fighter with more momentum behind him, and Rakic hasn't looked the same since dealing with injuries.

Prediction: Murzakanov by 2nd Round TKO

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Nasrat Haqparast -102 vs. Quillan Salkilld -111

Short-notice meeting between Lightweight strikers here. Nasrat Haqparast is a tough boxer who keeps a high pace and has solid power, as he showed with his first-round knockout of Jamie Mullarkey. Quillan Salkilld is a long striker with solid wrestling who is coming off a fight with Yanal Ashmouz, in which he took a few big shots late in the fight.

I'll take Salkilld in this one, as he is the slightly longer, younger fighter who is still improving and has grappling upside.

Prediction: Salkilld by Decision

Ikram Aliskerov -217 vs. Jun Yong Park +190

Well-rounded Middleweights go head-to-head in this one. Ikram Aliskerov is a dangerous finisher who has had all four of his UFC fights end in the first round, although one is a knockout loss to Robert Whittaker on short notice. Jun Yong Park is a veteran with good boxing and strong wrestling, which he has used to win six of his last seven fights.

I'm picking Aliskerov, with him fighting in familiar territory with a much more dangerous game and a skill set that can match Park anywhere he wants to take the fight.

Prediction: Aliskerov by 2nd Round TKO

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Mateusz Rebecki +118 vs. Ludovit Klein -133

Fun matchup here between exciting Lightweights, each looking to bounce back. Mateusz Rebecki is a powerful, explosive finisher who is very durable, though he often finds himself in wars where he takes unnecessary damage. Ludovit Klein is a fast kickboxer who can mix in solid offensive wrestling, though Mateusz Gamrot controlled him in their last fight.

I like Rebecki in this one, as he is the much more aggressive fighter with more power in his hands and a more dangerous ground game. With that, Mateusz Rebecki is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Rebecki by Decision Bet: Rebecki MoneyLine

Valter Walker -385 vs. Louie Sutherland +320

Short notice matchup here between Heavyweights. Valter Walker is a tricky guy for the division, with his slick grappling and now-signature heel hook, which he has used to finish three straight fights. Louie Sutherland is an athletic striker who uses a lot of kicks at range, although he has yet to face much tough competition.

This is a tough matchup for Sutherland, given the lack of proper camp, which I believe will lead to another submission victory for Walker.

Prediction: Walker by 1st Round Submission

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Jose Delgado -143 vs. Nathaniel Wood +127

Incredible prelim matchup here between talented Featherweights. Jose Delgado is a deadly striker who has finished both of his UFC wins in the first round by knockout. Nathaniel Wood is a fast striker with crisp boxing, though his durability is a concern, as he often gets clipped and dropped.

I'm taking Delgado here, as he is the bigger, more powerful fighter whose durability I trust more.

Prediction: Delgado by 2nd Round TKO

Chris Barnett +420 vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab -526

A wild entertainer returns in this one at Heavyweight. Chris Barnett is one of the most unique fighters in the UFC, with his large build and ability to deliver fast-spinning kicks, though his age and physical limitations are concerning. Hamdy Abdelwahab is a strong wrestler with solid boxing skills, though he is hittable and tends to slow down.

I'll go with Abdelwahab here, as he is the younger fighter who's been more active.

Prediction: Abdelwahab by Decision

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Azat Maksum -500 vs. Mitch Raposo +420

Fun matchup here at Flyweight. Azat Maksum is a sharp striker with good scrambling ability on the ground, which he showed against Tagir Ulanbekov. Mitch Raposo is a wrestler who has struggled to find his footing in the UFC due to his lack of striking threat.

I like Maksum in this one, as he has the skills to defend the grappling and force a striking match where he has a clear advantage, especially in power.

Prediction: Maksum by Decision

Jaqueline Amorim -435 vs. Mizuki Inoue +360

Strawweight grapplers open the card in this intriguing matchup. Jaqueline Amorim is a dangerous submission grappler who has overcome early-career cardio issues and is now coming off four straight finishes. Mizuki Inoue returns here after a two-year layoff, looking to resume activity as a solid wrestler with some submission threat shown before the UFC.

I have to pick Amorim here, as she has a lot of momentum; meanwhile, Inoue has only fought once in the last five years, with a relatively unimpressive showing.

Prediction: Amroim by 1st Round Submission