The UFC returns this Saturday with an action packed card headlined by Calvin Kattar (-220) vs Josh Emmet (+200). In the Co-Main event we see a battle of two MMA legends in Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone (-160) vs Joe Lauzon (+145). The action all takes place at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. This is a great card, so let's dive into this and get you fight fans some value.
All odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 06/16/22.
This is personally one of my favourite fights of the entire year. To be clear, for me I am on the side of Calvin Kattar all the way. The price I do agree is steep, but with Josh at his age of 37, I think Calvin is the crisper boxer of the two and has a solid takedown defence. This should allow for him to keep it at a distance where he boxes his way to a decision. I see this fight going as the Josh Emmet vs Michael Johnson fight did, but without the knockout at the end. Michael was doing well, but just got caught with a great punch. I love Calvin's durability and even though Josh has dynamite in his hands, I see Calvin avoiding the big punch and winning a decision. I would advise to take him outright, but a possible play is taking Calvin by decision valued at +140.
This fight was supposed to take place a little over a month ago at UFC 274, but Cowboy pulled out do to a illness. I still feel the same about the fight. Its hard to predict what we will see out of these two legends. Both have been in the fight game forever and have continued to progress and adapt as fighters as they advanced in age. I personally would advise to stay away from this fight, but a possible play is the will the fight go the distance and I think it does. It is valued at +175 which is solid value and thats what I would lean instead of picking one on the moneyline.
Right out of the gate, I'm going to be honest, I am all over Kevin Holland here. Even though I think the price is a little high, I just don't see how the Dirty Bird gets it done here. Kevin is almost a decade younger, he's the sharper striker of the two, he's faster and stronger. This will be Holland's second fight at Welterweight and I think it will only help him as he will be even more seasoned at the weight. Tim Means is still dangerous evident of his 2 fight winning streak against the likes of Nicholas Dalby and Mike Perry. He is a good striker and I see this as a mostly standup fight, but Tim possess the fight IQ to if he sees fit to take the fight to the ground to shake things up. Even though it's pricey, the play here is Kevin Holland with a slight lean on him winning by finish valued at +225.
This is a fascinating fight. On one side, we have the flashy hard hitting Joaquin Buckley and on the other side we have Albert Duraev who has really good takedown game and solid top control. He also possess enough talent to stay in the fight on the feet with Buckley, but that comes at a great risk. I see this as one of the hardest fights to call on this card. Not to mention Duraev is undefeated since 2014. Even still I don't like taking Duraev at a over 2-to-1 favourite. Personally, with the power of Buckley and his chance at a fight ending shot, I favour him at +200. A slight lean I have is taking a shot at Duraev by submission valued at +250. If the fight goes late, I could see a possibilty of a Duraev submission. Not to mention Duraev is undefeated since 2014.
This is one of my favourite fights on the card right up there with the main event. Both are coming off layoffs, Damir close to a year and Guram nearing a two year hiatus due to injuries and other issues. I was very impressed with Guram's win against Mateusz Gamrot even though it was a close fight. I was impressed with how he fought, because I view Gamrot in high regard. Damir is on a 18 fight unbeaten run which includes wins over Joel Alvarez, Thiago Moises and Rafael Alves. On paper, this is one of the closest fights on the card and should be a barnburner. I am leaning the way of Guram as I like the value, but the play here would be the fight going the distance valued at -190. It is high, but I do think either are too well matched to be finished and with be a very close fight on the cards so that makes me think its the better decision to pick it goes the distance over an outright winner.
To be honest, I do not know what to expect from this fight. Julian Marquez is a wild man and is going to provide an high action fight. Julian is however coming off a year long layoff while Gregory has stayed active fighting already this past February albeit in a losing manner. He has also had grappling matches which I like and shows he is staying ready and improving. I like his style and think he mixes it up well to get the nod on the judges scorecard. The play here is Gregory Rodrigues outright.
I am a huge fan of Adrian Yanez. I love his boxing and he reminds me alot of a young Jorge Masvidal. There's emotion in this fight and I think that's going to favor Yanez. Tony Kelley is a good fighter and his win against Randy Costa surprised me. Kelley could provide some problems for Yanez in the way of his wrestling, but I think Yanez is used to tough fights and can weather that to a mid-to-late stoppage. I am going heavy on the money line, but also on Adrian by knockout which is valued at +160.
Now to some other really solid fights. I am super excited to see the return of Ricardo Ramos (-285) as he faces Danny Chavez (+255) which should provide us with a action packed fight for as long as it lasts. Even though its steep I think Ricardo takes it, so him on the moneyline as well as him by KO if you would like to get some extra value (+800) which I am going to take. Another great fight is Eddie Wineland (+440) VS Cody Stamann (-500). I would advise to stay away from this fight, but a slight shot could be putting some money on Wineland by KO (+1100). We've seen crazier things happen. Lastly Phil Hawes (-250) VS Deron Winn (+225) I am all over Phil Hawes here and thinks he wins it quite decisively.
Kattar, Holland, Yanez valued at +270. Enjoy the fights my friends!