The UFC is back in front of fans with a stacked card of action from Austin, Texas, headlined by a clash of Lightweight standouts as Beneil Dariush +240 takes on Arman Tsarukyan -294. I went over each fight on the main card and gave my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 1:45 PM EST 11/30/2023
Lightweight contenders square off in this crucial main event. Beneil Dariush looks to return to his winning ways using his well-rounded offensive attack that features fight-ending power and an incredible grappling game, although he has had several brutal weight cuts and has been knocked out multiple times. Arman Tsarukyan has been one to watch since his debut, where he fought well against current champion Islam Makhachev, and since then, he has only continued to round out his game, which is best known for a vicious ground and pound attack.
I got in early on Tsarukyan, and I'm glad I did, as the current price makes him difficult to bet against a tough test in Dariush, although I still am confident he will get it done, likely via knockout.
Pick: Tsarukyan O/U: Under 3.5 -108
Short notice replacement here saves a great fight at Lightweight. Jalin Turner steps in here, which is interesting as he has had trouble making weight even with a proper camp; despite that, he is a dangerous finisher with powerful striking and an opportunistic submission game. Bobby Green is an entertaining fighter with a unique hands-down style; he is a volume puncher with slick head movement and an underrated ground game when needed.
I like Turner here, even on short notice, although I will pass betting on him as I could see this fight turning quickly if it gets to round three with Green's perceived cardio edge.
Pick: Turner O/U: Over 1.5 -189
A Bantamweight firefight goes down here as two hard hitters go head to head. Rob Font is an excellent volume striker with one of the best jabs in the sport; my concern is with his defense, as he is hittable and has not taken punches well in several fights lately when facing other hard hitters. Deiveson Figueiredo moves up in weight here, and I'm excited to see it as he is known for his power and frantic pace, which may only increase with him being less diminished on fight day.
I've got Figueiredo as the underdog in this one, as his power punching and grappling can get him the win here.
Pick: Figueiredo O/U: Under 2.5 -109
It's an interesting matchup between Welterweights looking to enter contention. Sean Brady is a very strong grappler with good control and submission; his problem is with his striking and cardio, which looked terrible against Michael Chiesa and Belal Muhammad. Kelvin Gastelum moves back down in weight here after a long run up at Middleweight; he has fought the toughest competition in the world and held his own with a granite chin and high-pace striking.
I'll take Gastelum in this one as I see his volume overwhelming Brady.
Pick: Gastelum O/U: Under 2.5 -103
Lightweight veterans collide here in this fun matchup. Clay Guida is a forward-moving wrestler with good cardio, although his age is a concern at this point as he is over forty. Joaquim Silva enters this off an impressive showing despite a loss against Arman Tsarukyan, where he showed his dangerous power, nearly finishing the highly touted prospect.
Silva should take this one, as he was very impressive last time out against a much tougher opponent.
Pick: Silva O/U: Under 2.5 -133
Middleweight finishers matchup here to start the main card. Punahele Soriano is a very athletic guy whom I had high hopes for early in his UFC run; despite some falters along the way, he is still a hard hitter with no quit and a great team behind him, giving me hope he can still reach his potential. Dustin Stoltzfus is a decent grappler coming back after a year off from a quick knockout loss to Abus Magomedov; he only has one win in five UFC appearances and has not shown much promise along the way.
I like Soriano to get a finish in this one as he is very explosive and dangerous, which will be too much for Stoltzfus.
Pick: Soriano O/U: Under 1.5 +104
Arman Tsarukyan -175
Deiveson Figueiredo +160
Kelvin Gastelum +100
Punahele Soriano + Melquizael Costa -105