The UFC returns to action with a Lightweight headliner from the Apex between Grant Dawson -455 and Bobby Green +320. I went over every fight on this fun main card and gave my predictions, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 9:30 AM EST 10/6/2023
This Lightweight main event puts an up-and-coming grappler against a veteran striker. Grant Dawson has established himself as a legit threat in the division, having shown an elite ability to control opponents on the ground, he is not a great finisher, but his gas tank is improved enough to go the distance. Bobby Green has long fought tough competition with his signature hands-down boxing style, and he showed he is no slouch on the mat either last time out, submitting credentialed grappler Tony Ferguson.
I'll pick Dawson here as I see his wrestling advantage being too much for Green, although this price is very steep for a fight with several question marks.
Pick: Dawson O/U: Under 4.5 -238
Middleweight power punchers collide here. Joe Pyfer has burst onto the scene with several highlight knockouts, although he has yet to be truly tested, and his defense is questionable. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a heavy hitter who has shown a few wrinkles to his game over his career, although his best weapon will always be his insane power early in fights that have earned him many first-round knockouts.
These odds are crazy to me as I see this as a fight that could quickly go either way; for that reason, give me Alhassan to get it done at this price.
Pick: Alhassan O/U: Under 1.5 -204
Welterweights looking to take the next step to contention face off in this one. Alex Morono has consistently been underrated in my mind as he has always shown a good pace with solid boxing and a decent ground game as well; he is not the most durable fighter, but he is tough. Joaquin Buckley is a powerful and unique fighter who is good at finding big shots, although his volume is low, and he is inconsistent from fight to fight.
I'll take Morono here as he will have a decent edge in volume, making him the minute winner here.
Pick: Morono O/U: Over 2.5 +138
Lightweight veterans who always put on a show collide here. Drew Dober is an all action banger with crazy power in his hands and a great chin, although his striking defense is not good, and he has been out-wrestled before, although it was against high-level opposition like Islam Makhachev. Ricky Glenn is a tough grappler with a good gas tank and a decent submission game, although he is getting older and coming off an early knockout loss.
Dober should get the knockout here, but with his suspect defense and Glenn's tricky grappling, I'll pass on any play here.
Pick: Dober O/U: Under 2.5 -238
This is a featherweight firefight between two must-watch fighters. Bill Algeo is a long, well-rounded fighter with great pace and durability, although he is very hittable in the standup. Alexander Hernandez is a hard-hitting powerhouse, although his cardio has frequently failed him, including in his only other bout at this weight against Billy Quarantillo.
I'll take Algeo here as he has never been knocked out as a professional, and if this fight goes past round one, I have no idea what condition Hernandez will be in after cutting down to this weight again.
Pick: Algeo O/U: Under 2.5 +100
Light Heavyweight knockout artists square off in what could be a wild fight. Philipe Lins has looked tremendous since moving back down to this weight, showing knockout power and a solid grappling game with a gas tank that holds up. Ion Cutelaba is a wildman who swings crazy hooks and blasts crazy takedowns; his cardio is not great, and neither is his durability, but he is always dangerous.
I'm on Lins as the underdog here, as I see him being better everywhere in this fight and taking over more and more the longer it goes until he eventually finds a knockout.
Pick: Lins O/U: Over 1.5 +118
Abdul Razak Alhassan +400
Alex Morono +170
Bill Algeo -138
Philipe Lins +134