Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 1/28/2025

Israel Adesanya -164 vs. Nassourdine Imavov +134

The main event this week is a high-stakes Middleweight clash between two men who are firmly in the title picture. Israel Adesanya reigned over this division for years with his slick kickboxing, although over recent years, the speed he once had has seemingly faded, and with him losing three out of his last four, it may be time to question how much is left in the tank. Nassourdine Imavov enters this fight having won three straight over top ten ranked opposition with his strong boxing standing out of an overall well-rounded game despite some cardio issues which have come and gone throughout his career.

I am a big fan of Imavov's game and will bet him here as the underdog with this matchup favoring him in a few different areas. He is the younger guy, he's been more active, he has the grappling upside, and his cardio issues are less likely to show up in a kickboxing match with a counter striker. With all that, Imavov is my best bet of the week.

Prediction: Imavov by Decision (Best Bet)

Shara Magomedov -185 vs. Michael Page +149

These two flashy strikers square off here at Middleweight. Shara Magomedov is a lightning-fast kickboxer who is undefeated with four wins coming in the UFC including a wild knockout of skilled kickboxer Armen Petrosyan his last time in the cage. Michael Page is a one-of-a-kind striker with a hands-down style that allows him to move very freely before making big actions to land damage on his opponents as they often struggle to react.

I lean toward Magomedov here as he has a few key factors going his way including being the natural Middleweight, much younger, and fighting with the crowd behind him. Still, I am not sold on him being worth betting at this price against a veteran like Page, so this fight is a pass for me.

Prediction: Magomedov by Decision

Sergei Pavlovich -323 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +250

Big punchers collide here in this Heavyweight clash that you shouldn't take your eyes off. Sergei Pavlovich is as dangerous as anyone in the UFC for the first round with all his wins coming by early knockout although when extended by Alexander Volkov he struggled to keep a pace or pose much of a threat. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a veteran kickboxer with dangerous power and solid technique, but he is getting up there in age and has suffered several early knockout losses.

At these odds, Rozenstruik has to be the side, if this fight gets out of round one I believe he will win two and three at a pretty high rate although, with several early knockout losses in his UFC career, there is a big concern there.

Prediction: Rozenstruik by Decision

Said Nurmagomedov -179 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +144

Rising Bantamweights to watch go head to head in this fantastic matchup. Said Nurmagomedov is a very dangerous fighter with good striking and a nasty choke game that has finished three of his last four wins including strong competition in Cody Stamann and Saidyokud Kakhramonov. Vinicius Oliveira is a skilled and powerful striker who caught the attention of many last year with a flying knee knockout over Benardo Sopaj in his debut and a dominant decision over veteran Ricky Simon later on.

I'll pick Nurmagomedov here as both men are skilled strikers but he has the x-factor of being able to snatch the neck at any moment and he is fighting with a friendly crowd.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by 1st Round Submission

Fares Ziam +130 vs. Mike Davis -161

Lightweights, each looking to extend their four-fight win streak, face off here to open the main card. Fares Ziam is a tall striker who has improved tremendously since his early time in the UFC, with his most recent win against Matt Frevola feeling like a breakout performance. Mike Davis returns here after another long layoff, when active he has a very well-rounded game, as he has shown in fast-paced wars with Sodiq Yusuff and Mason Jones.

I like Ziam in this one as he is the longer guy who can win the striking at range, and he has been much more active, looking better each time he gets in the octagon.

Prediction: Ziam by Decision

Muhammad Naimov -294 vs. Kaan Ofli +225

Featherweights looking to get back in the win column battle in this featured prelim. Muhammad Naimov looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss after displaying big power in his first few outings, which resulted in wins over veterans Jamie Mullarkey and Nathaniel Wood. Kaan Ofli makes his UFC debut after failing to win the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 32, losing by knockout to Mairon Santos, although on the show, he still demonstrated a solid skillset with basic striking and dangerous submission skills in wins over Nathan Fletcher and Roedie Roets.

This is a good spot for Naimov to get a bounce-back knockout with Ofli having just been finished although I wouldn't be shocked if Ofli makes this competitive as Naimov isn't a great minute winner and was just submitted.

Prediction: Naimov by 2nd Round KO

Shamil Gaziev -385 vs. Thomas Petersen +290

Heavyweights with the power to end a fight quickly square off here. Shamil Gaziev is a big and strong guy, which he can use to beat up his opponents early, but his cardio has been a massive issue. Thomas Petersen is a solid grappler for the weight class but his striking leaves much to be desired, in particular on defense, as he takes a lot of damage.

I'll pick Gaziev here as I believe he has the advantage wherever the fight goes early on, but with his cardio issues, I can't even think about betting on him at this price as Petersen could win simply by not getting finished early.

Prediction: Gaziev by Decision

Terrance McKinney -476 vs. Damir Hadzovic +350

Lightweights with kill-or-be-killed styles are matched up in this one. Terrance McKinney is a fast finisher, with all his wins coming by early knockout or submission, although when he fails to get his opponent out of there early, he doesn't have the cardio to survive. Damir Hadzovic returns after several years away here, he is a solid striker, although he struggled against solid grapplers at the UFC level.

I see the grappling of McKinney being far too much for Hadzovic to overcome unless he has made significant improvements to his game during the time off which I strongly doubt.

Prediction: McKinney by 1st Round Submission

Jasmine Jasudavicius -238 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva +190

It's a big matchup here at Flyweight as two very skilled grapplers look to push their way into the contender conversation. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a high-paced wrestler who often overwhelms her opponents with pace and pressure. Mayra Bueno Silva is a dangerous submission artist with solid striking as well and she is moving back down in weight for this fight after losing two straight at Bantamweight.

This is a tough fight to call but I slightly favor Jasudavicius to win a decision as I feel she is the busier fighter in the cage and will be on the top in most grappling exchanges, although the finishing upside is firmly on the side of Bueno Silva here, giving me a lot of hesitation with this pick.

Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision

Bogdan Grad -101 vs. Lucas Alexander -120

Two dangerous strikers collide here in this fun Featherweight matchup. Bogdan Grad makes his debut off of Dana White's Contender Series, where he got redemption for his first time on the show, this time at a lower weight class where he looked much better. Lucas Alexander is a tall striker with decent power but there is some concern with him having missed weight and lost his last fight as a big favorite against Jeka Saragih.

I lean towards Alexander here as Grad struggled against Tom Nolan in big part due to his size advantage and despite being much shorter than Nolan, Alexander has the same reach which he can use to keep Grad at range.

Prediction: Alexander by Decision

Hamdy Abdelwahab -111 vs. Jamal Pogues -111

Heavyweights looking to gain valuable experience will open the card here. Hamdy Abdelwahab is back for another UFC showing here after his lengthy suspension for a drug test failure after his debut win over Don'Tale Mayes. Jamal Pogues is a decent boxer who has shown solid durability and little finishing ability for the weight class as he has gone the distance in each of his last five fights.

I'll go with Pogues here but it's tough to have much confidence in either side here, if Abdelwahab is in good form he has a path with the wrestling, although he is very inexperienced and his striking does not look good which leads me to lean towards Pogues as the pick.

Prediction: Pogues by Decision