The UFC returns to Brazil this weekend, headlined by one of the country's brightest young talents in Heavyweight, Jailton Almeida -526, as he takes on fan favorite Derrick Lewis +350 in what should be an epic clash. I went over every fight on this deep card and gave my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by Stake.com accurate as of 11/2/2023 10:30 AM
The Heavyweight main event will be all action for as long as it lasts, as these two are some of the fastest finishers in all of MMA. Jailton Almeida is a freakishly athletic grappler with dominant control and fantastic finishing ability with his submission game or ground and pound. Derrick Lewis has become a staple of UFC history for one reason: his very dangerous punching power, although his game lacks much else, not that he needs it when the power lands.
I like Almeida to make quick work of this one; his ground game is as high level as there is in this division, and I don't see Derrick Lewis making the necessary improvements to compete there at this point in his career.
Pick: Almeida O/U: Under 1.5 -323
The bigger of the two Bonfim brothers gets the co-main spotlight here at Welterweight. Gabriel Bonfim has proven a deadly finisher ending each of his UFC fights by submission around one minute in against solid competition. Nicolas Dalby is a solid veteran with a good ground game and pace, although he is getting up there in age.
This is an interesting matchup for Bonfim, but he will pass the test and get another finish.
Pick: Bonfim O/U: Under 2.5 -222
Rematch here at Heavyweight several years after their first match. Rodrigo Nascimento got the finish in the first matchup between these two, and despite only getting split decisions in his last two, he has still been winning fights. Don'Tale Mayes is a somewhat athletic guy for his size, with decent power that he showed by getting the knockout over Andrei Arlovski in his last fight, but his decision-making in fights is often very questionable, making him hard to trust.
I'll pick Nascimento to get the win again here, as I don't think much has changed to result in a different outcome, but this fight doesn't interest me from a betting standpoint.
Pick: Nascimento O/U: Over 2.5 +115
Good matchup of Middleweights to watch going forward. Caio Borralho has remained unbeaten in the UFC so far, using his athleticism to show decent offensive striking and fantastic grappling with smothering control. Abus Magomedov is a powerful and long striker, although anyone who saw his last fight knows he has a cardio issue as he completely fell apart after round one against Sean Strickland, which is a massive concern.
I took the round two and three props for Borralho as his clear advantage here is in cardio, and if this fight gets past the first round, I expect him to take over and get the finish.
Pick: Borralho O/U: Under 2.5 -141
Classic striker vs. grappler matchup here at Middleweight. Rodolfo Viera is one of the best pure submission artists in the UFC, with a very credentialed grappling game that has earned him several submissions inside the octagon. Armen Petrosyan is a solid kickboxer who is coming off a good win over Christian Leroy Duncan, where he was able to fight smart to dominate a decision.
I'll take Petrosyan here as I think he can keep the distance and win this fight by avoiding risky positions.
Pick: Petrosyan O/U: Over 2.5 +136
The first of the two Bonfim brothers fights here at Lightweight. Ismael Bonfim is a big-swinging, hard hitter who impressed many at the beginning of the year with his insane flying knee knockout over Terrance McKinney. Vinc Pichel is a tough veteran, although he has been rather inactive over the last few years and has also been outwrestled without much resistance at times when he does fight.
I've got Bonfim here, as he has every advantage in this fight and will likely score another highlight finish.
Pick: Bonfim O/U: Under 2.5 -112
Catchweight bout here on short notice. Elves Brenner returns and brings the classic Chute Boxe style of forward pressure, which he showed in his comeback victory over Guram Kutateladze earlier this year. Kaynan Kruschewsky steps up here after winning the contender series not long ago.
I think Brenner should win here, but I'm just going to enjoy the show of his wild style rather than risk my money on this one.
Pick: Brenner O/U: Under 2.5
Clash of styles in this must-see Welterweight matchup. Elizeu Zaleski is a veteran with a well-rounded skillset; he has been less explosive with age but is still very dangerous. Rinat Fakhretdinov comes into this one with a very impressive record, having shown dominant wrestling and machine-like cardio.
At these odds, I'll go with Zaleski, as I think he can defend the takedowns and test the striking of Fakhretdinov here.
Pick: Zaleski O/U: Under 2.5 -110
Good matchup of up-and-coming Bantamweights to watch here. Daniel Marcos enters this one without a loss on his record despite many feeling his last fight over Davey Grant should've gone the other way. Victor Hugo makes his debut here off the contender series with plenty of experience, being on a nice streak of finishes where he has shown his nasty submission game.
I'll pick Marcos here, but at these odds, I have no interest in betting him at this price.
Pick: Marcos O/U: Under 2.5 -169
Light Heavyweight strikers face off here. Vitor Petrino is a wild powerhouse who swings with big power and showed off a much-improved ground game, getting the submission over Marcin Prachnio in his last fight. Modestas Bukauskas has earned back-to-back wins since returning to the UFC, where he has looked good striking at range, although Zac Pauga was able to give him some trouble in close.
I'll go with Petrino here, as I see him getting a knockout in this one with his power.
Pick: Petrino O/U: Under 2.5 -111
High-stakes Strawweight clash here early on the card. Angela Hill is a tough veteran who has competed with the top of the division for a long time and has proven how she handles a step down in competition in her recent wins over Emily Ductoe and Loopy Godinez. Denise Gomes showed off her punching power in an early upset win over the highly touted Yazmin Jauregui her last time out, which was her second straight knockout win.
I like Hill here as she is a step above Gomes even with her age, as she will be the higher volume fighter here, and she has never been knocked out.
Pick: Hill O/U: Over 2.5 -312
An intriguing Strawweight prospect makes her debut here. Monserrat Ruiz enters this one off two stoppage losses against good grapplers, although she has shown she can use her scarf hold to beat lower-level competition. Eduarda Moura enters this off a first-round win on Dana White's Contender Series; she is undefeated, having finished all of her opponents but one.
I'll pick Moura here as she has a very high ceiling based on what I have seen, so I expect her to handle a test like Ruiz with ease.
Pick: Moura O/U: Under 2.5 -175
It's a fun fight at Lightweight featuring two men with flashy striking in their arsenal to open this card. Kaue Fernandes makes his debut here, and he has shown some potential with very hard and fast kicks early, although he is extremely hittable, and his cardio has looked awful anytime he has gone past round one. Marc Diakiese is a veteran with a well-rounded skillset, he has had his setbacks during his UFC run but has proven capable of competing with high-level competition.
I've got Diakiese here, as I know he will be good if the fight reaches the deeper stages where I do not have the same confidence in Fernandes.
Pick: Diakiese O/U: Over 2.5 -139
Caio Borralho Round 2/3