This weekend a rising star and a battle-tested veteran collide in a short-notice main event at Flyweight as Jessica Andrade -137 steps in to face Erin Blanchfield +110. This card also features a big-name matchup at Lightweight between Jim Miller +200 and Alexander Hernandez -227.
Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 2/16/2023 3:00 PM EST
Short notice main event at Women's Flyweight. Jessica Andrade has been a top contender in several divisions for years, and it is easy to see why, as she has some of the most powerful punches in Women's MMA. Erin Blanchfield has quickly risen to this opportunity using her dominant grappling game to control and finish her opponents.
I'm taking Blanchfield as the underdog here, as we have seen Andrade outwrestled before. Although it may seem early to compare Blanchfield's wrestling to Valentina Shevchenko's, I feel her advantage will be enough to get the win.
Pick: Blanchfield O/U: Over 3.5 +120
Explosive matchup here at Light Heavyweight. Zac Pauga comes in off his loss in the Ultimate Fighter final in a fight he was winning until he got caught. On the show, he showed a good striking game with high volume. Jordan Wright is an all-out action fighter who has had every fight in his career end within two rounds.
I'll pick Pauga here, but my bet is the Under 1.5, as I expect Jordan Wright to come out and either finish the fight or be finished in round one as he usually is, as I do not expect him to change his game at this point.
Pick: Pauga O/U: Under 1.5 -196
Heavyweight clash here on the main card. Josh Parisian has traded wins and losses so far in his UFC run, showing weakness on the ground. Jamal Pouges moves up in weight for this matchup; he is a Contender Series product with a flashy style, even in close fights.
I'll lean with Pouges here as he will have a clear speed advantage, although I will not play him at this price.
Pick: Pouges O/U: Over 2.5 -152
Fun matchup at Light Heavyweight. William Knight moves back down in weight after being finished in his last fight. Marcin Prachnio had a rough start to his UFC run, but since he has had the opportunity to show his skills, he has looked good against lower-level competition.
I'll take Prachnio in this one, as he has shown much better form than Knight of late, and I do not see how Knight could improve his game while spending so much time on his weight.
Pick: Prachnio O/U: Under 2.5 -167
Short notice clash of Lightweight at very different points in their careers. Jim Miller is the ultimate veteran; with his crafty grappling and toughness, he is always in any fight. Alexander Hernandez moves back up in weight for this one, and I like that for him as he is very explosive and doesn't need to drain himself to have fight-changing power.
I'm going with Hernandez here, as he looked great early in a tough matchup in his last fight against Billy Quarantillo, and if he comes out like that here, I believe he will get the finish.
Pick: Hernandez O/U: Under 1.5 +102
Lightweights meet early in their UFC careers here. Nazim Sadykhov makes his debut off Dana White's Contender Series, and he has impressed me in several aspects as he looks very well-rounded and ready for UFC competition. Evan Elder returns off a tough UFC debut where he struggled to get much offense going.
I really like Sadykhov here, as he should have advantages in striking and grappling, so I'll bet on him here.
Pick: Sadykhov O/U: Over 2.5 -123
Women's Bantamweight fight here between veterans. Lina Lansberg has lost three in a row and will need to switch things up here to get her UFC career back on track. Mayra Bueno Silva has shown a strong grappling game and competed with some of the best in the division.
I'm taking Bueno Silva here as she has been competing with high-level competition lately and has done well, and this is a good matchup for her to show her skills.
Pick: Bueno Silva O/U: Under 2.5 +127
Fun clash of Featherweights here at very different stages in their UFC career. Jamall Emmers has had some good moments in his UFC career, including a very close fight with Giga Chikadze. Khusein Askhabov makes his debut here, and he has looked good with a high finishing rate, although he has yet to test himself against high-level competition.
I've got Emmers here as the underdog, as his experience edge makes him worth a play.
Pick: Emmers O/U: Under 2.5 -111
Powerful punchers collide here at Light Heavyweight. Ovince St.Preux is still around, and he is still a finisher with power but low volume and a unique choke game. Philipe Lins is coming off a win in his debut in this weight class, showing he can use his size to wear on opponents against the cage.
I'll pick Lins here, but I can't bet him at this price, and I have no interest in the other side either, so I'll sit out of this matchup.
Pick: Lins O/U: Over 2.5 -130
Welterweights meet here both with something to prove. AJ Fletcher needs a win after two losses to start his UFC career, although he has not been given easy matchups and has still shown solid wrestling skills. Themba Gorimbo makes his debut here with many submissions on his resume, although he has yet to take on any real competition and has still struggled at times.
I'll take Fletcher as he has the advantage in every aspect of MMA, not to mention his experience edge.
Pick: Fletcher O/U: Under 2.5 -169
Flyweight battle here to open the card. Juancamilo Ronderos comes in here off a tough UFC debut where he showed a weakness in his grappling game. Clayton Carpenter makes his UFC debut here with an impressive career so far with six wins at the pro level, having shown his submission skills, knockout power, and solid cardio.
I like Carpenter here, as he seems well-prepared for his UFC debut.
Pick: Carpernter O/U: Under 2.5 -179
Erin Blanchfield +110
Marcin Prachnio +102
Jamall Emmers +129
Nazim Sadykhov -185
Zac Pauga vs. Jordan Wright Under 1.5 -196
Alexander Hernandez Inside The Distance -105
AJ Fletcher (-256) + Mayra Bueno Silva (-455) -144