UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall Betting Preview

By Douglas Vegas Bets
Thursday, July 21st 2022, 11:28PM, 3 months ago

After an incredible event earlier this year, the UFC returns to London, England, with Tom Aspinall -143 headlining against powerful wrestler Curtis Blaydes +112. This weekend we see some big names that the public loves to back, like Paddy Pimblett -286 against Jordan Leavitt +215 and Alexander Gustafsson +155 returning against Nikita Krylov -204. There are plenty of big favorites on this card, so let's see who is worth the price tag.

All Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 1:45 AM EST 7/21/2022

Curtis Blaydes +112 Tom Aspinall -143

This fantastic matchup at Heavyweight will genuinely answer all the questions left about Tom Aspinall. Curtis Blaydes is a very experienced wrestler who has gone five rounds before and has shown great strides in his striking game, which, when mixed, creates problems. Tom Aspinall is a powerful blitzing finisher who has yet to get far into the second round in his career, as nobody has been able to last that long across from him.

This fight is close, and I am not eager to bet a side. Still, I am surprised at Blaydes being the underdog as although Aspinall proved a lot against Alexander Volkov; he has not been put on his back or taken into deep waters, which are two things that we know Blaydes can test, which makes me think Aspinall is tough to back at this price. I played the fight not to go the distance early in the week and got a value price, and I think it is an excellent play; if Aspinall wins, it is likely to be early, and I do not believe he will be able to last five rounds at his usual pace against a man like Blaydes if it does not end early.

Pick: Curtis Blaydes O/U: Under 3.5 -185

ADVERTISEMENT
Jack Hermansson -118 Chris Curtis -109

The Action Man Chris Curtis steps up on short notice and gets the ranked matchup he has been looking for against Jack Hermansson. Jack Hermansson is a fighter who is good at everything, but I wouldn't say he's excellent at anything, although he is a tricky matchup, and if you have a hole, he can exploit it. Chris Curtis has made a name for himself with some big knockouts in underdog spots and his recent win over Rodolfo Viera, which showed his defensive grappling abilities.

I like Hermansson here as although Curtis defended takedowns in his last fight, I think Hermansson is a much better wrestler and can hang on the feet, not to mention this is a difficult matchup on short notice for Curtis. I also like this fight to go the distance as both men are durable enough to go three rounds with each other.

Pick: Jack Hermansson O/U: Over 2.5 -127

Paddy Pimblett -286 Jordan Leavitt +215

A fun one at Lightweight sees Paddy The Baddy Pimblett take on The Monkey King Jordan Leavitt. Paddy Pimblett is a wild fighter who has shown his finishing ability in his first few UFC fights; however, he has also demonstrated his holes being caught and controlled against mediocre competition. I feel Jordan Leavitt is a good grappler who struggles in standup, although he has an awkward style that has caused opponents trouble.

I will lean Paddy Pimblett here, although if it were not in his backyard, I would likely be a bit more tempted by the Leavitt side. I think this fight may get into the later stages as both men are high-level grapplers who will be challenging to submit, and neither has been knocked out before either, so I will play the over 1.5 rounds here.

Pick: Paddy Pimblett O/U: Over 2.5 +135

ADVERTISEMENT
Nikita Krylov -204 Alexander Gustafsson +155

This one has left me puzzled all week. Nikita Krylov is a good everywhere but great nowhere kind of guy to me who is hard to trust, especially after deciding to grapple with Paul Craig in his last fight. Alexander Gustafsson is back; again, he was a top tier Lightheavyweight in his prime and was a massive favorite against guys at the top of the division; however, he has retired and unretired after a first-round submission loss, and I do not know what kind of fighter we are going to see.

I will pick Krylov here as he is a solid fighter, and I have no idea what to expect from Alexander Gustafsson at this point in his career. I have no bets for this fight; the price tag is too much, and I have a weird feeling Gustafsson might have something left, but I need to know to put my money on him.

Pick: Nikita Krylov O/U: Over 2.5 +106

Molly McCann -417 Hannah Goldy +290

I never thought I would see the day that Meatball Molly McCann was a -400 favorite, but here we are. Molly McCann is a solid veteran with good striking and solid grappling defense. Hannah Goldy is a solid grappler, but she really struggles in the striking department.

I am picking Molly McCann here, and I think she wins comfortably, but this line has gotten out of control, so I will pass.

Pick: Molly McCann O/U: Over 2.5 -263

ADVERTISEMENT
Paul Craig +128 Volakn Oezdemir -164

A tricky striker versus grappler matchup here at Lightheavyweight. Paul Craig is very good at baiting his opponents into bad positions and has come away with some incredible submission wins doing this. Volkan Oezdemir is a powerful striker with some impressive names on his resume who has shown strong wrestling defense at times.

I like Oezdemir here as I think everyone is very aware of Paul Craig's path to victory; however, this line was at a pick'em early in the week, and I can't help but feel the value on him way be gone. If this line comes back down a bit I may make a play on Oezdemir.

Pick: Volkan Oezdemir O/U: Under 2.5 -233

Ludovit Klein +260 Mason Jones -357

This should be a great fight at Lightweight. I get very excited to see Mason Jones fight ever since his incredible debut against Mike Davis blew me away, and since then, he has continued to impress, showing his potential to be a true contender. Ludovit Klein is a fun striker who has been highly valued by the betting market in the past.

I like Mason Jones here, and I think he has it all to make it far into the UFC with top-notch grappling, striking, and durability. I will add Mason Jones to my card parlay as his straight price is too much to play.

Pick: Mason Jones O/U: Under 2.5 -127

ADVERTISEMENT
Marc Diakiese -370 Damir Hadzovic +265

The first of back-to-back Lightweight bouts on these stacked prelims. Marc, The Bonecrusher Diakiese, is back this weekend after cashing big for me his last time out, proving his well-roundedness and ability to grind out a win against Viacheslav Borshchev. Damir Hadzovic is a decent kickboxer, although he has trouble in the grappling department which has cost him several times.

I think this is a good matchup for Diakiese, but this price is way too steep to play him alone. I will add him to my card parlay as I trust him to get the job done.

Pick: Marc Diakiese O/U: Over 2.5 -145

Nathaniel Wood -625 Charles Rosa +400

Here we see Nathaniel Wood moving to Featherweight, taking on Charles Rosa. Wood is a well-rounded finisher who should have a sizable advantage in the standup. Charles Rosa has fought against incredibly tough competition throughout his career and has held his own with his grappling ability.

I am picking Wood, but this price tag is too much for me even to consider playing him.

Pick: Nathaniel Wood O/U: Over 2.5 -222

ADVERTISEMENT
Makwan Amirkhani +160 Johnathan Pearce -213

This should be a fun, high pace grappling affair. Makwan Mr. Finland Amirkhani is a top-tier grappling ace for the first few rounds of any fight; however, he has had some gas tank issues in the past, which could be an issue as he is only getting older. Johnathan Pearce is a strong grappler who can put his opponents in bad positions before he works to finish the fight, although it is difficult to forget his loss to Joe Lauzon just a few years ago.

I am going to pick Mr. Finland to get the job done in the underdog role as he has faced much higher-level competition, and I cannot trust Pearce at this price. I have a small play on Amirkhani to get a first-round submission as I believe he will have an opportunity, and when fresh, Amirkhani is very dangerous, as he showed in his last fight.

Pick: Makwan Amirkhani O/U: Under 2.5 -145

Muhammad Mokaev -500 Charles Johnson +340

Here we see two excellent prospects collide early in their careers at Flyweight. Muhammad Mokaev is one of the most hyped prospects in MMA currently, and it is easy to see why, as he has checked all the boxes off as early as one can in his career; from striking to grappling, this kid can finish a fight anywhere. Charles Johnson makes his debut from LFA, where many were very impressed with his performances.

There has been a lot of talk about this being a tougher matchup than the odds indicate; however, I am very confident in Mokaev and his top-tier grappling game to get the job done here. This is going to be the final piece on my card parlay.

Pick: Muhammad Mokaev O/U: Over 2.5 +100

ADVERTISEMENT
Jai Herbert -286 Kyle Nelson +210

Here we see Jai Herbert get another chance to perform for the London crowd after putting on an incredible fight his last time out against the Canadian moving up in weight Kyle Nelson. Jai Herbert has shown he is a good kickboxer who has been caught before a few times. Kyle Nelson has been off for a while since his battle with Billy Quarantillo, and it is possible he has made adjustments to his game, but he is well-rounded regardless.

I'll lean Nelson here as Jai Herbert has a few too many concerns for me to have him this big a favorite here. It is worth noting I am not making a bet here, and I am backing a fellow Canadian.

Pick: Kyle Nelson O/U: Under 1.5 -114

Mandy Bohm -130 Victoria Leonardo +102

Here we get a Flyweight bout where both women have had their struggles early in their UFC runs. Mandy Bohm had a tough debut, but she is a good striker at range. Victoria Leonardo has been given as tough competition as possible for their first two fights, resulting in a couple of losses inside the distance.

I will lean with Leonardo as the underdog here as she has a lot of experience against high-level competition, although I will not place any money on this fight.

Pick: Victoria Leonardo O/U: Over 2.5 -233

ADVERTISEMENT
Nicolas Dalby -263 Claudio Silva +200

This is a Welterweight matchup between two veterans coming off losses. Nicolas Dalby is a solid striker at distance, although he has been outwrestled. Claudio Silva is a talented grappling ace who actively searches for submissions on the ground.

I will pick Dalby to win here as I think he can keep it standing and get a win, but this price is too much for me to back him with my money, and he has been submitted early in a big favorite spot before.

Pick: Nicolas Dalby O/U: Over 2.5 -147

Jack Hermansson ML -118

Curtis Blaydes Tom Aspinall Fight Doesn't Go The Distance -278

Jack Hermansson Decision +280

Paddy Pimblett Jordan Leavitt Over 1.5 Rounds -138

Muhammad Mokaev Charles Johnson Over 2.5 Rounds +100

Parlay: Muhammad Mokaev, Marc Diakiese, Mason Jones -105

HOME OF COMBAT
Submit picks and score rounds with the Verdict MMA app.
Read More
See all
UFC 284 Set In Australia, Alex Volkanovski Looks To Return
UFC 284 Set In Australia, Alex Volkanovski Looks To Return
Frankie Edgar Faces Chris Gutierrez In His Retirement Fight
Frankie Edgar Faces Chris Gutierrez In His Retirement Fight
Geoff Neal And Shavkhat Rakhmonov Verbally Agree To Fight
Geoff Neal And Shavkhat Rakhmonov Verbally Agree To Fight
Kevin Holland Ends Retirement, Set For Main Event Against Wonderboy At UFC Orlando
Kevin Holland Ends Retirement, Set For Main Event Against Wonderboy At UFC Orlando
Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Reportedly Being Finalized For UFC 282
Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Reportedly Being Finalized For UFC 282

OverUnder Newsletter

Join over 100,000 fight fans and receive the best fight week content every Friday morning.

Check out our lastest edition.