The UFC is in the Apex for another week, with Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown squaring off in the Welterweight main event. I went over the card to give my predictions and bets, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 11/5/2025
The main event features two Welterweights looking to establish themselves in the rankings. Gabriel Bonfim is a submission artist with nasty skills on the ground and improving striking, though his cardio remains questionable, especially given that this is five rounds. Randy Brown is a slick-moving striker with good speed and power, though his defense has gotten him into trouble a lot, as he is often clipped for having his hands down.
I'll take Bonfim to get a finish here, as I believe he has a massive advantage on the ground if he can get it there, while also having a chance to catch Brown in the striking with his defensive issues.
Prediction: Bonfim by 1st Round Submission
Flyweight finishers test their skills against each other in our co-main event. Matt Schnell is a grappler with solid submission skills, though his durability has been a serious issue, leading to several knockout and submission losses. Joseph Morales comes in off winning the latest season of the Ultimate Fighter and now starts his second UFC run as a strong grappler with a nasty submission game.
I'm going with Morales, as I simply cannot trust Schnell's durability at this point in his career, and Morales has shown solid finishing skills.
Prediction: Morales by 1st Round Submission
Veteran strikers collide in this Welterweight showdown. Muslim Salikhov is a veteran with dangerous power in all his strikes, including boxing and spinning attacks, that he still uses effectively at forty-one years old. Uros Medic is a knockout artist who gets into a lot of fun fights, partially because he also has questionable durability that sees him dropped in fights he should dominate.
I like Medic as the much younger, more athletic fighter here, in a matchup where either man could land a big strike and change things.
Prediction: Medic by 1st Round TKO
Always exciting, Lightweights go head-to-head in this fun matchup. Ismael Bonfim is a stocky powerhouse with good boxing and strong wrestling, but at times questionable fight IQ. Chris Padilla is a durable finisher who has found ways to come back against James Llontop and Rongzhu on his way to a three-fight win streak to start his run in the UFC.
I took Bonfim to win a decision here, as I feel he is the better striker and wrestler, who will control where the fight takes place and win the minutes against Padilla, who hasn't been finished since 2018, before he took a break and returned as a much-improved fighter.
Prediction/Bet: Bonfim by Decision
Veteran Bantamweights square off here. Ricky Simon is a strong wrestler coming off back-to-back wins with solid power in his hands, as he showed with his knockout of Javid Basharat. Raoni Barcelos is a tricky veteran with good volume striking and solid grappling, as well, coming off wins over Payton Talbott and Cody Garbrandt.
I lean towards Simon here as he is the more dangerous striker with the wrestling to stay on top or get back to his feet when he wants to.
Prediction: Simon by Decision
Fantastic matchup here between explosive Middleweights to open the main card. Marco Tulio is an aggressive and fun striker who has knocked out his first two UFC opponents in style, putting a bad beating on Tresean Gore in his last fight. Christian Leroy Duncan is an explosive, unorthodox fighter who comes in off a highlight-reel knockout of Eryk Anders.
I'm picking Tulio in this one, as he is the higher-output striker who I believe carries more power in his shots.
Prediction: Tulio by Decision
Dangerous Featherweights looking to put on a show collide in this one. Jamall Emmers is a long striker who uses his reach well and has ended two of his last three fights with a first-round knockout win, although his performances can be inconsistent at times. Hyder Amil is an all-out brawler who throws high volume and stands in the pocket to try and break opponents, although he is coming off a first-round knockout loss.
I've got Emmers here as he holds a significant reach advantage, which I believe he will use to keep Amil at a distance and piece him up. With that, Jamall Emmers is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.
Prediction: Emmers by 1st Round TKO Bet: Emmers MoneyLine
Bantamweights looking to push their way up in the division meet in this prelim matchup. Mayra Bueno Silva is a dangerous submission grappler who has previously challenged for the title, though she is low-output and has questionable cardio. Jacqueline Cavalcanti is a kickboxer who has won her first four fights with the UFC, showing good defensive movement.
I lean towards Cavalcanti here, as unless Bueno Silva gets a submission, I believe she would need two rounds of ground control to get the win, which I find unlikely.
Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision
Debuting Heavyweights square off here, looking to start their UFC run with a win. Josh Hokit is a wrestler who grinds down opponents with control time and some ground-and-pound. Max Gimenis is a credentialed grappler who has transitioned to MMA.
I'm picking Hokit as he is the better wrestler, which leads me to believe he will control where the fight takes place, but at these odds, I caution against betting him or adding him into parlays, as he is very unproven.
Prediction: Hokit by 3rd Round TKO
Strawweight clash here, looking to extend their win streaks. Tecia Pennington is a high-paced striker who has competed with many of the best in the division over the years, including a split decision against current champion Mackenzie Dern. Denis Gomes is a powerful fighter for the division who has won five of her last six, most recently knocking out Elise Reed.
I'll go with the younger and more dangerous fighter here in Gomes, as with an eleven-year age gap, I see Pennington having a tough time with the physicality.
Prediction: Gomes by Decision
Fun one here at Bantamweight. Miles Johns is a stocky fighter with solid boxing and strong wrestling, though he can be low-output at times. Daniel Marcos is a skilled kickboxer who comes in off his first career loss in a competitive fight, where he showed he can mix in his wrestling at times as well.
I lean towards Marcos here as he is the longer fighter who mixes up his weapons slightly better.
Prediction: Marcos by Decision