Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 5/14/2025

Gilbert Burns +440 vs. Michael Morales -625

In our Welterweight main event, it's a big-time veteran vs. prospect matchup. Gilbert Burns is a tough veteran with solid boxing and dangerous grappling, although he has slowed down with age, which has resulted in him losing three straight. Michael Morales is an undefeated striker who is big for the weight and uses his size well to manage distance and pick apart opponents.

I'm picking Morales to get a late finish here as I have a hard time seeing Burns find much success in this matchup, with the striking, size, and youth advantages all massively on the side of Morales.

Prediction: Morales by 4th Round TKO

Paul Craig +390 vs. Rodolfo Bellato -556

Finishers clash here at Light Heavyweight in this can't-miss co-main event. Paul Craig is a veteran who has made a career of using his very tricky ground game to submit opponents, although more are figuring out how to gameplan against him, causing him to lose three straight fights. Rodolfo Bellato is a dangerous striker who has shown a lot of resolve through two UFC fights, both of which he had to come back from early knockdowns.

This is a good matchup for Bellato as he won't have to worry about the striking danger as much as his last few, and he has never been submitted in his professional career.

Prediction: Bellato by 1st Round KO

Sodiq Yusuff +106 vs. Mairon Santos -130

Normally competing at a lower weight class, these two will meet at Lightweight for this short-notice clash. Sodiq Yusuff is a tough and hard-hitting striker who returns here from over a year away from the octagon. Mairon Santos is a slick Muay Thai striker coming off a controversial decision win over Francis Marshall.

I lean towards Santos here as he is the younger fighter who has been more active, and I don't think Yusuff has the style to give Santos the issues Marshall did.

Prediction: Santos by Decision

Nursulton Ruziboev -303 vs. Dustin Stoltzfus +240

Middleweight finishers go head to head in this exciting matchup. Nursulton Ruziboev is a big and powerful striker with many first-round knockouts wins on his record, although when extended later into fights, he tends to struggle, and his grappling hasn't looked great at the UFC level. Dustin Stoltzfus is a well-rounded finisher who has had some great showings, like his win over Marc-Andre Barriault and Punahele Soriano, but he has also suffered a few knockout losses to Brunno Ferreira and Abus Magomedov.

I had to take Stoltzfus at these big underdog odds, as he will have the edge in grappling and cardio. If he can avoid taking the early damage that cost him the Ferreira fight, where he had a lot of early success, he can take over in the later stages here against a tired Ruziboev. With that, Dustin Stoltzfus MoneyLine is one of this week's Underdog Best Bets of the Week.

Prediction: Stoltzfus by 3rd Round Submission (Best Bet)

Julian Erosa +147 vs. Melquizael Costa -182

Fun to watch Featherweights open the main card with this one. Julian Erosa is an all-action brawler with great pace and a dangerous submission game, although his durability has failed him several times. Melquizael Costa looks to build on a strong start to the year after showing his strong grappling in wins over Andre Fili and Christian Rodriguez.

I'll take Costa here as he has the grappling at match Erosa, and his striking is good enough to capitalize on Erosa's chin.

Prediction: Costa by 2nd Round TKO

Matheus Camillo -233 vs. Gabe Green +185

Interesting matchup here at Lightweight in our featured prelim. Matheus Camillo makes his debut here as an interesting young prospect with good finishing skills and strong defensive wrestling. Gabe Green returns down a weight class from several years ago when he lost his last two fights to Ian Garry and Bryan Battle after showing promise by beating Yohan Lainesse and Phil Rowe with his pressure and grappling game.

I'm going with Green at these odds as he has the high-level experience and is at a better weight class for him, although I am not eager to bet on him, considering his lengthy layoff.

Prediction: Green by Decision

Jared Gordon -118 vs. Thiago Moises -104

Lightweight veterans collide in this solid prelims clash. Jared Gordon is a gritty, experienced fighter with good boxing and clinch work who comes into this one off a controversial loss to Nasrat Haqparast, where many people thought he won. Thiago Moises is a strong grappler with good leg kicks, although he lacks volume and has seemingly slowed down from earlier in his career.

I like Gordon in this one as he is the more active striker and can defend Moises's grappling attacks.

Prediction: Gordon by Decision

Luana Santos -172 vs. Tainara Lisboa +141

Two women with high finish rates go head to head here at Bantamweight. Luana Santos moves up in weight here and looks to use her strong Judo base to get her grappling game going early. Tainara Lisboa looks to extend her five-fight win streak here, with four wins coming inside the distance, showing her aggressive style.

I lean towards Santos's experience in this one, as she has proven her skills against much more experienced opposition.

Prediction: Santos by Decision

Connor Matthews +350 vs. Yadier DelValle -476

Featherweights are looking to pick up their first UFC win as they square off in this one. Connor Mattews is a pressure fighter with solid boxing and a good ground game that he doesn't use as much as I think he should, as he is now looking to bounce back from two straight knockout losses to start his UFC run. Yadier DelValle makes his debut here off of Dana White's Contender Series with an undefeated record after an impressive display of his sharp striking.

I'm picking DelValle here as he is the much cleaner and more defensively responsible striker, and I believe his defensive grappling will hold up even if Matthews tries to grapple.

Prediction: DelValle by Decision

Denise Gomes -588 vs. Elise Reed +420

Strawweight strikers face off in this fun matchup. Denise Gomes is a dangerous finisher with incredible power for the weight class, which she showed in her early knockout win over Yazmin Jauregui. Elise Reed is a solid boxer, although her grappling is a major concern, with her having suffered four finish losses in the UFC, all on the ground.

I'll take Gomes to finish here, as Reed will be willing to strike with her, but she doesn't have nearly the same firepower, and if this goes to the ground, Gomes has a big advantage.

Prediction: Gomes by 1st Round TKO

Hyun Sung Park -179 vs. Carlos Hernandez +145

Flyweights looking to establish themselves in the division square off in this one. Hyun Sung Park is an unbeaten finisher with good grappling, which he showed on The Road to UFC, and striking, which he used to finish Shannon Ross in his debut. Carlos Hernandez is a well-rounded fighter who has proven he can handle the lower-level competition in the UFC, as he has only lost to skilled guys like Allan Nascimento and Tatsuro Taira and had good performances whenever he has taken a step down.

I've got Hernandez in this one, as he is the much more experienced and proven fighter who has faced tougher competition and shown he can handle adversity and push through to win. With that, Carlos Hernandez MoneyLine is this week's second Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Best Bet)

Luana Pinheiro +255 vs. Tecia Pennington -333

A fun matchup here at Strawweight kicks the card off. Luana Pinheiro is an early blitzing fighter with several first-round finishes on her record, although her cardio issues have been a major reason she has lost her last three, including being finished twice. Tecia Pennington is a veteran striker who keeps a high pace and is very strong, which makes her difficult to grapple and has resulted in her never suffering a finish loss.

Pennington should handle this one, as she will be putting the pressure the whole time with her huge cardio advantage, likely helping her separate herself late.

Prediction: Pennington by Decision