The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend with a solid card of action headlined by Middleweight veterans Jared Cannonier +175 and Gregory Rodrigues -222. I went over that matchup and the rest of the card to give my predictions and best bets so let's get into it.
Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 2/12/2025
Hard-hitting Middleweight knockout artists collide in this high-stakes main event. Jared Cannonier is a tested vet who has proven himself to belong near the top of the rankings for many years with his ability to throw powerful strikes at a high volume, although he is now over forty years old and has been hurt a lot in recent fights. Gregory Rodrigues is an offensive juggernaut with knockout power and slick skills on the ground, although his defense is concerning at times, with him having been hurt or knocked out several times in fights he should have comfortably won.
I've got 'Robocop' Rodrigues to find a finish in this one as I feel he will continue to build as the fight goes on when we have seen Cannonier fade later in his recent performances against Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho.
Prediction: Rodrigues by 2nd Round TKO
Crossroads matchup here at Featherweight as a streaking up-and-comer takes on a struggling vet. Calvin Kattar looks to get back on track here using the boxing that once had him on the cusp of a title shot before his current losing streak, with the most recent loss being a terrible showing against Aljamain Sterling, where he was outwrestled all fight. Youssef Zalal has looked tremendous since returning to the UFC, finishing all three of his wins with a mix of knockouts and submissions, showing his well-rounded game.
I like Zalal to take a decision here as he is going to be the higher output fighter with a big advantage in the grappling but Kattar has proven very difficult to finish over his career.
Prediction: Zalal by Decision
It's a fun fight here at Middleweight featuring a very exciting fighter looking to get back on track. Edmen Shahbazyan is a very fast and dangerous fighter early with some impressive first-round wins although, when fights get extended, he falls apart, as has been the case in four of his last six fights. Dylan Budka will look to get his first UFC win here after two rather unimpressive performances, he's a decent wrestler although, his striking and cardio are very questionable.
This should be a quick finish for Shahbazyan as Budka has not looked anywhere near UFC level in his recent fights.
Prediction: Shahbazyan by 1st Round KO
Violence is expected in this fantastic Lightweight matchup. Ismael Bonfim is a big swinging powerhouse with a solid wrestling game, although he can neglect proper defense at times, as was the case in his loss to Benoit Saint-Denis, who finished him in the first round. Nazim Sadykhov is a high-paced and durable fighter with good finishing skills both on the feet and on the mat as he has shown with finishes of Evan Elder and Terrance McKinney.
I took Sadykhov here as I feel he is the more defensively responsible fighter with the finishing upside here both in the striking and submission game. With that, Nazim Sadykhov is my best bet of the week.
Prediction: Sadykhov by 3rd Round Submission (Best Bet)
Strong grapplers will go head to head here at Middleweight. Rodolfo Viera is a very dangerous submission artist who has adapted his game well since joining the UFC. Andre Petroski is a strong wrestler with decent striking, but his durability and cardio are both rather questionable.
I see Viera getting an early submission here, as Petroski will likely be willing to have grappling exchanges with him where I believe he will make a mistake.
Prediction: Viera by 1st Round Submission
A highly anticipated Featherweight debut opens the main card here. Jose Delgado makes his first UFC appearance here coming off five straight finishes showing fight-ending power. Connor Matthews is a tough fighter with solid power although he takes a lot of big shots and doesn't use his grappling which is pretty good when he does show it.
Delgado likely wins this one as Matthews is very hittable in the striking although at these odds I can't got anywhere near him betting-wise.
Prediction: Delgado by Decision
Strawweights looking to push their way up in the rankings face off in this one. Angela Hill is a tough veteran with a high-volume kickboxing style although she is now forty years old which is cause for some concern. Ketlen Souza looks to build off back-to-back wins here after a very impressive upset of Yazmin Jauregui where she showed good finishing instincts and really made a name for herself.
I lean toward Souza here as she is the much younger fighter who I feel has the finishing and grappling upside in this matchup.
Prediction: Souza by Decision
Veteran against newcomer matchup here at Lightweight. Jared Gordon is a tough and well-rounded veteran with solid boxing who has competed with some ranked opponents and held his own throughout his career. Mashrabjon Ruziboev makes his octagon debut here with an interesting record, to say the least having mostly finished opponents with losing records in the first round which raises red flags to me.
I've got Gordon in this one as he has proven he can compete with high-level competition and I don't believe Ruziboev has proven he belongs at this level.
Prediction: Gordon by Decision
Fun grapplers face off in this interesting Flyweight matchup. Rafael Estevam is an undefeated prospect who returns after over a year away since his debut win over Charles Johnson where he looked great early but faded in the final round. Jesus Aguilar looks to extend his three-fight win streak here with his solid boxing and dangerous choke game that has helped him earn three straight wins with two coming by first-round finish.
I'm going with Estevam here as I see him being the much better fighter wherever the fight goes.
Prediction: Estevam by Decision
Welterweight finishers collide in this must-see matchup early on the card. Gabriel Bonfim is a very skilled and dangerous grappler coming off a win where he showed big improvements to his cardio after a disastrous collapse against Nicolas Dalby that left many wondering if he belonged. Khaos Williams is a durable knockout puncher coming off an impressive win over Carlston Harris, my big concern with him is he has only fought once a year each of the last three years having been off since last May.
I like Bonfim in this one as I feel he has a big grappling advantage and can avoid the big shots on the feet, although it is difficult to trust him at this price.
Prediction: Bonfim by Decision
Bantamweights looking to prove they belong at this level go head-to-head in this one. Vince Morales is a gritty and dangerous fighter with solid power in his hands and a crafty submission game. Elijah Smith debuts off an impressive contender series win at just twenty-two years old, having already shown improvements from early in his career when cardio was a concern.
I lean towards Morales here as the underdog with him being the much more experienced fighter with fewer question marks around his game.
Prediction: Morales by Decision
Heavyweights looking to push their way into the wide-open rankings battle it out here. Valter Walker is a solid grappler, especially for this weight, coming off a leg lock win, which is rare for this division. Don'Tale Mayes is a decently athletic wrestler with solid power, as he showed in his win over Andrei Arlovski.
At these odds, I'll go with Mayes as I feel he is a slightly better striker, and Walker won't have the same type of advantage on the ground as he did against Junior Tafa.
Prediction: Mayes by Decision
Bantamweights looking to make a name for themselves open the card here. Julia Avila returns from another long layoff here, she was a solid finisher early in her career but has struggled with consistency and activity. Jacqueline Cavalcanti comes into this one, having won her first three UFC fights using a solid kickboxing game.
I'm picking Cavalcanti here as she has proven she is a solid fighter and has been active when Avila has not competed since being finished by Miesha Tate in 2023.
Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision