UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Predictions

Douglas Vegas Bets|
May 18, 2023|

The UFC is back at the Apex this weekend with another card full of action headlined by Mackenzie Dern -189 taking on Angela Hill +146 at Strawweight. This card also features a must-see Lightweight clash between Michael Johnson +129 and Carlos Diego Ferreira -164 that I have a confident pick in. See my predictions and bets for every fight on the card below.

Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 5/18/2023 5:00 AM EST

Mackenzie Dern -189 vs. Angela Hill +146

World-class grappling on display vs. high-level striking in our Strawweight main event here. Mackenzie Dern is an incredible submission artist who has done well to develop a solid striking game that can compete when her grappling fails her, which it does at times with her lack of wrestling. Angela Hill is a high pace striker who has defended takedowns very well in the later stage of her career, she has not been submitted since earlier in her career and has faced several solid grapplers since then, like Virna Jandiroba and Lupita Godinez.

I’ll lean with Hill here as I expect most of these rounds to play out on the feet, where Hill has a large advantage, and she could survive a round or two of grappling, although this fight will be close, and if you favor Hill, I may go with the over instead to avoid a robbery.

Pick: Hill O/U: Over 4.5 -152


Edmen Shahbazyan +175 vs. Anthony Hernandez -233

Fireworks are expected in this Middleweight matchup. Edmen Shahbazyan is a powerful and creative striker who can finish most in the division if he catches them. Anthony Hernandez is a cardio machine with a good grappling game; although he has shown a weakness to the body shots but has also shown tremendous toughness.

I have Hernandez paired with the over in this matchup, as I think if this fight gets to deep waters, he will take over with his massive cardio edge.

Pick: Hernandez O/U: Over 1.5 -154

Emily Ducote +124 vs. Lupita Godinez -159

Catchweight bout here between usual Strawweights with lots of potential. Emily Ducote returns after a tough loss to Angela Hill, where she was pieced up, although she has proven to have powerful hands and decent grappling prior to that. Lupita Godinez is a young fighter whom we have seen flash elite potential with her ground game, and then she was competitive with Angela Hill in a striking match, if she can put it all together, I believe Godinez can be a threat in this division.

I took Godinez here as I feel if she can use her wrestling, she has the advantage there, and her striking is improving rapidly as well.

Pick: Godinez O/U: Over 2.5 -345


Andre Fialho +175 vs. Joaquin Buckley -233

Welterweight power punchers meetup here. Andre Fialho is a boxer with powerful hands, although I have picked against him before because of his lack of head movement and durability. Joaquin Buckley moves down in weight here, and he has very high volume and solid power, although he has been knocked out several times after leaving himself open with big motions.

I played Buckley early in the week at a better price, and I still pick him, although past -200, I would warn against laying too steep a price or using him in longer parlays.

Pick: Buckley O/U: Under 1.5 +103

Michael Johnson +129 vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira -164

A fantastic fight between veteran Lightweights known for putting on fun fights. Michael Johnson is a powerful puncher with crazy speed, and he is in great form of late, although he has been inconsistent, and it has cost him against good finishers. Carlos Diego Ferreira returns after a year off here to recover from a losing streak on which he fought many highly ranked fighters, although he still showed he can compete with young, ranked opposition.

I’ve got Ferreira here as I think he will find a submission at some point, although I think he can also win using his wrestling or striking, so I took the money line.

Pick: Ferreira O/U: Under 2.5 -152


Maheshate +129 vs. Viacheslav Borshchev -167

Lightweight strikers meet here in the featured prelim. Maheshate is a creative striker with good power, although he is hittable. Viacheslav Borshchev is a long kickboxer who has been outwrestled, although when he has been able to stand, not many have lasted across from him and his hard body kicks.

I like Borshchev here as I give him the finishing upside, and he has only struggled when forced to wrestle, which Maheshate is unlikely to offer.

Pick: Borshchev O/U: Under 1.5 +110

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -137 vs. Vanessa Demopoulos +108

Strawweight veterans clash here, looking to extend their win streaks. Karolina Kowalkiewicz has had a career resurrection of sorts with two straight impressive wins where she has dominated with her grappling. Vanessa Demopoulos has had a fun UFC run where she has shown high pressure and toughness.

I’m picking Kowalkiewicz here to give her the edge in striking and grappling, although I do not trust her with my money at this age.

Pick: Kowalkiewicz O/U: Over 2.5 -294


Orion Cosce -120 vs. Gilbert Urbina -105

Welterweight’s looking to gain valuable experience here. Orion Cosce comes into this matchup off a win over Blood Diamond, where he showed his wrestling game, although he still has yet to get a win over any solid competition. Gilbert Urbina returns for the first time since he was on the Ultimate Fighter, where he lost his last two bouts inside the distance, although he showed some promise early on the show and has good experience before that.

I’ll lean with Urbina here, but this is a tough matchup to predict with little tape on each fighter and some lengthy layoffs.

Pick: Urbina O/U: Under 2.5 -135

Ilir Latifi +155 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento -204

Veteran grappler takes on young striker here at Heavyweight. Ilir Latifi is a veteran who has turned into a complete wrestler in the later stages of his career. Rodrigo Nascimento is a powerful striker looking to take the next step here after putting together a solid run against other young Heavyweights, some of whom he could completely dominate.

I’ll pick Nascimento here, as I don’t think Latifi will be able to handle his power at this age, and he will not be able to wrestle for all three rounds.

Pick: Nascimento O/U: Under 2.5 -123


Chase Hooper +109 vs. Nick Fiore -139

Lightweight grapplers collide here. Chase Hooper moves up in weight here, looking for consistency, he has great cardio and submission skills, although he struggled with physicality. Nick Fiore is difficult to find much information on, but he showed in his debut he is very tough and has solid wrestling skills.

I’ll lean with Hooper here as he should have the cardio edge and a higher pace; however, I will not be betting on this fight as I have historically had a difficult time reading Chase Hooper’s fights.

Pick: Hooper O/U: Over 1.5 -182

Victoria Leonardo +540 vs. Natalia Silva -909

An intriguing Flyweight prospect gets another matchup here early on the card. Victoria Leonardo comes in off her first UFC win, although it is over Mandy Bohm, and she has struggled when facing higher-level competition, having been finished in her two prior UFC fights. Natalia Silva is a very impressive young prospect who has shown high-level striking and submission skills in her short UFC career.

I’ve got Silva here as she has shown she is ready to step up in competition, and I expect her to finish this fight.

Pick: Silva O/U: Under 2.5 -135


Takashi Sato -114 vs. Themba Gorimbo -112

Welterweight’s looking to get on track here to start off the card. Takashi Sato has struggled during his UFC run, having faced some high-level competition, although he did not give a great account of himself. Themba Gorimbo is a grappler with a long reach, although he has struggled when fighting anyone with a winning record.

I’m taking Takashi Sato here as I think he has a big edge in striking, and I don’t think Gorimbo can get this fight to the ground.

Pick: Sato O/U: Under 2.5 -161

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Lupita Godinez -150

Joaquin Buckley -175

Carlos Diego Ferreira -150

Anthony Hernandez + Over 1.5 +130

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