UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
February 28, 2025|
3

The UFC is back this weekend with another action-packed card from the Apex headlined by Flyweight contender Manel Kape taking on the fast-rising Asu Almabayev. I went over that fight and every other matchup on the card to give my picks and best bets.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 2/27/2025

Manel Kape -217 vs. Asu Almabayev +175

It's not the original matchup, but we still have a pivotal Flyweight matchup in our main event. Manel Kape is an electric striker with blazing speed and serious power, as he showed in his dominant win over Bruno Silva last year. Asu Almabayev is a grappler who has won his first four UFC fights, including a solid performance against Matheus Nicolau, where he showed his striking is also dangerous.

I'll go with Kape here, as he has the striking advantage, and his takedown defense is solid. It could be close early, but over five rounds, I like Kape to get into a rhythm and separate himself.

Prediction: Kape by Decision

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Cody Brundage +103 vs. Julian Marquez -125

Middleweight finishers square off in this fun co-main event. Cody Brundage is a solid wrestler with some power in his hands, although he isn't great at anything and has struggled when stepping up in competition. Julian Marquez is a brawler with solid output and toughness, although his defensive fundamentals are lacking, which has caused him to suffer three knockout losses in a row.

I lean towards Marquez here, with him being the more powerful and higher-output striker and Brundage not handling early adversity well. His wrestling is also not bad, which makes it difficult for me to see Brundage having enough success there.

Prediction: Marquez by 1st Round TKO

Nasrat Haqparast +215 vs. Esteban Ribovics -278

Violence is expected in this matchup of Lightweight strikers. Nasrat Haqparast is a good boxer who is very durable, but he lacks much else in his game, with little kicking or grappling to speak of. Esteban Ribovics is a high-volume kickboxer with tremendous power and a sneaky submission game; he broke out last year with a huge knockout of Terrance McKinney and a war with Daniel Zellhuber.

I'm taking Ribovics to get a finish in this one, as he will be the much more active fighter with more diverse and dangerous striking, along with not having to worry about any grappling threat on the other side.

Prediction: Ribovics by 3rd Round KO

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William Gomis -213 vs. Hyder Amil +170

Featherweights who both have yet to taste defeat in the UFC square off here. William Gomis is a tall kickboxer who is good at maintaining range, which helped him avoid the power of Joanderson Brito and win a decision in his last fight. Hyder Amil is a powerful brawler coming off a wild knockout win over Jeong Yeong Lee, where they traded hard shots until Lee couldn't take the power of Amil anymore.

I see Gomis avoiding a brawl here and picking Amil apart at a distance, as we have seen him execute a similar game plan against much more proven opponents.

Prediction: Gomis by Decision

Danny Barlow -333 vs. Sam Patterson +255

Top Welterweight prospects go head to head in this fantastic matchup. Danny Barlow is an undefeated striker known for the power in his hands, although his technique is not the cleanest, and he lacks experience. Sam Patterson is a skilled grappler who has finished both his fights since moving up in weight with first-round submissions, although he has suffered several early knockout losses, which is cause for concern.

I'll pick Patterson to get the upset here, as he will have a big grappling advantage here, with Barlow having been put in very bad spots by much lower-level guys. With that, Sam Patterson is this week's best bet of the week.

Prediction: Patterson by 1st Round Submission (Best Bet)

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Austen Lane +400 vs. Mario Pinto -556

Interesting matchup here at Heavyweight sees an unbeaten prospect make their debut. Austen Lane is a decent athlete who has shown a well-rounded offensive game however, his defense is a major concern, with him consistently reacting poorly to big shots. Mario Pinto makes his debut here off a win on Dana White's Contender Series, where he showed his power, but he also has a solid ground game and the ability to drag fights into deep waters.

Pinto should take this one, as he has better striking and should be able to defend the wrestling of Lane enough to land a knockout.

Prediction: Pinto by 2nd Round TKO

Ricardo Ramos +340 vs. Chepe Mariscal -476

It's a fun matchup here at Featherweight. Ricardo Ramos is an interesting fighter with solid wrestling and a signature spinning elbow that has finished several opponents, although his durability has failed him on several occasions. Chepe Mariscal enters this one having won his first four UFC fights with a well-rounded game that includes good fundamental striking and solid wrestling, although he has been finished several times outside of the UFC, raising some concern.

I'll pick Mariscal here, but these odds feel far too wide as he has had some close fights, and Ramos has wins over some quality competition.

Prediction: Mariscal by Decision

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Douglas Silva de Andrade +245 vs. John Castaneda -313

Bantamweight veterans collide in this one. Douglas Silva de Andrade is a tough veteran with a well-rounded game, including strong boxing and good submission skills. John Castaneda is a high pace grappler who puts the pressure on his opponents from the start with volume striking before mixing in his smothering ground game like he did with Miles Johns.

I like Castaneda to get a late finish here as he is going to be putting on the pressure all fight on at his age I'm not sure Silva de Andrade can keep up.

Prediction: Castaneda by 3rd Round Submission

Lucas Almeida +175 vs. Danny Silva -217

Featherweight strikers square off here in this fun matchup. Lucas Almeida is a skilled striker coming off an impressive win over Timmy Cuamba, although he has shown weakness on the ground against Pat Sabatini, and Andre Fili dominated him. Danny Silva is a high-volume puncher who had an impressive win on Dana White's Contender Series and is coming off a debut win over Josh Culibao.

I've got Silva in this one as he is going to be the much higher-output fighter with the grappling upside, although the power advantage will likely be with Almeida.

Prediction: Silva by 2nd Round TKO

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Andrea Lee +165 vs. JJ Aldrich -208

Experienced Flyweights look to get things back on track here. Andrea Lee is a veteran who has competed with many of the division's best and looks to break her five-fight losing streak here. JJ Aldrich has shown flashes of potential, like the first round against Erin Blanchfield and the last round against Veronica Hardy, although she struggles to put together complete performances over solid competition.

I'll go with Aldrich here, as she is the younger fighter who has still proven capable of winning fights at this level.

Prediction: Aldrich by Decision

Charles Johnson -125 vs. Ramazan Temirov +102

Must see action here early on the card at Flyweight. Charles Johnson has become a fan favorite, with him constantly fighting and showing great cardio and pace, having taken over late against several opponents. Ramazan Temirov is a very hard hitter for this division, who comes into this off of five straight first-round knockout wins, including his UFC debut over CJ Vergara.

I'm taking Temirov here as I believe his power will cause Johnson trouble although this could end up being a close fight if Johnson can drag it into the later stages.

Prediction: Temirov by Decision

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Montana De La Rosa +115 vs. Luana Carolina -141

Flyweights open the card, each looking to push their way up in the division. Montana De La Rosa is a solid grappler who has competed with a lot of tough competition, like Maycee Barber and Tatiana Suarez. Luana Carolina is a good striker who comes into this on a three-fight win streak, where she has done well to keep her opponents at range.

I lean towards De La Rosa here, with her being the better grappler who has competed with higher-level competition.

Prediction: De La Rosa by Decision