The UFC is back with another action-packed fight night this weekend featuring a Light Heavyweight main event between Nikita Krylov -175 and Ryan Spann +137. This card also features a clash of Canadians in Mike Malott -227 vs. Yohan Lainesse +175, who will surely put on a show.
Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 10:30 PM EST 2/23/2023
The Light Heavyweight main event features two powerful finishers. Nikita Krylov has shown powerful hands and a strong wrestling game, although he has made questionable in-fight decisions. Ryan Spann is coming off a huge knockout win over Dominick Reyes, where he showed his insane power, although I am not sold on him as a contender, as his defense has left much to be desired.
I am taking Krylov here because he has more ways to win this fight, and I believe Spann still has a lot of work to do on his game.
Pick: Krylov O/U: Over 1.5 +132
High-level matchup at Middleweight. Andre Muniz has become a hot prospect with his top-tier submission game, although he has yet to face much real competition and has not shown much striking. Brendan Allen is a well-rounded fighter who has developed well in his time in the UFC, offering a complete grappling game and a solid striking game despite some durability concerns.
I will bet Allen as the underdog here as he is a much more well-rounded fighter, and if he can defend the grappling enough, he should be able to dominate the striking.
Pick: Allen O/U: Over 1.5 -145
The classic striker vs. grappler matchup plays out here at Heavyweight. Augusto Sakai has fallen quickly as he has lost four straight fights by knockout, showing a lack of volume and ground game over that stretch. Don'Tale Mayes is a decent grappler for his size, which can give opponents trouble, although he does not always take the easiest path to victory.
I'll take Mayes in this one, as I can't take Sakai as a favorite against anyone, especially when he has a clear disadvantage on the ground.
Pick: Mayes O/U: Over 1.5 -182
The return of one of the most hyped prospects in the UFC is finally upon us here at Women's Flyweight. Tatiana Suarez was on a rocket ship to the belt using one of the most developed wrestling games that women's MMA has ever seen, and she is back here after several years off with an injury. Montana De La Rosa comes into this, having struggled when facing grapplers in the UFC, most recently against Maycee Barber.
If Tatiana Suarez comes back anything close to the talent she was when she left, this should be a win for her.
Pick: Suarez O/U: Over 2.5 -159
A battle between Canadian prospects at Welterweight here. Mike Malott has shown a well-rounded offensive attack winning his fights by a mix of knockout and submission, often finding the best path to victory. Yohan Lainesse is a power boxer, although he has left some to be desired when forced to grapple.
I like Malott in this one, and he finishes the fight using his grappling skills, either getting a ground-and-pound finish or submission later in the fight.
Pick: Malott O/U: Over 1.5 -108
Good matchup at Lightweight to open this main card. Erick Gonzalez has had a tough run in the UFC so far, being finished each time out. Trevor Peek makes his UFC debut here, finishing all his pro fights within two rounds.
It is tempting to play Peek here, but I'm not entirely sold on him as he has shown to be very hittable at times, although I have yet to see enough out of Gonzalez to bet him either.
Pick: Peek O/U: Over 1.5 +145
Women's Flyweights collide in search of momentum in this matchup. Gabriella Fernandes is a dangerous fighter with sound striking and a solid submission game, although she does not have much wrestling. Jasmine Jasudavicius has done well in the top position but has struggled to gain it, as she failed to land any takedowns in her UFC debut.
I'll lean Fernandes in this one as if she can keep this one striking, she has a clear advantage, and if she is taken down, she has a submission threat.
Pick: Fernandes O/U: Over 2.5 -270
This Lightweight matchup has been rebooked almost a year after the initial booking. Jordan Leavitt is a grappler, and he has decent wrestling with some submission threat, although he struggles a lot with striking. Victor Martinez is a striker on a seven-fight win streak.
I like Martinez here because I have more confidence in his boxing ability than in Leavitt's wrestling.
Pick: Martinez O/U: Under 2.5 -164
Fun striking battle here at Flyweight. Ode Osbourne has a lot of length for a Flyweight, and he uses it well on offense, but he often can trust it too much on defense which ends with him getting caught. Charles Johnson is a very movement-based striker, although he consistently struggles to generate much power.
I'm going to bet Osbourne here as an underdog as I feel at this price, it is worth the risk of him getting caught, as this should be very close overall.
Pick: Osbourne O/U: Over 2.5 -112
Short notice matchup between Lightweights here. Joe Solecki is a solid grappler with good control that can lead to submissions. Carl Deaton III comes in with plenty of experience, a well-developed standup game, and is active in hunting submissions on the ground.
I've got Solecki in this one, as he will be able to control the grappling and avoid the submissions of Deaton.
Pick: Solecki O/U: Over 1.5 -169
An intriguing matchup to keep an eye on here at Lightweight. Nurullo Aliev has a fair bit of hype behind him coming into his debut here, as he is undefeated with a strong wrestling game and great cardio. Rafael Alves is a high pace finisher who tends to gas out late in fights.
I'll pick Aliev as his cardio will be the difference in this matchup, although I do feel that Alves has the higher finishing upside, so I will avoid betting on this one.
Pick: Aliev O/U: Under 2.5 -112
Women's Bantamweights with high finish rates collide in this one. Hailey Cowan makes her UFC debut here off a very close fight on Dana White's Contender Series. Ailin Perez returns after a tough loss in her debut, although she appears refocused, having moved camps to the United States for this fight.
I'll go with Perez here as I like her move to MMA Masters for her training, and I feel she could reach a new level there, and even if she doesn't, she has the grappling edge in this matchup.
Pick: Perez O/U: Under 2.5 +147
Brendan Allen +180
Don'Tale Mayes +105
Victor Martinez -109
Ode Osbourne +132
Ailin Perez +100
Mike Malott Inside The Distance -105
Nikita Krylov (-175) + Tatiana Suarez (-800) -130