UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
May 09, 2024|

The UFC is bringing the action to St.Louis, Missouri, this weekend as fan favorite Derrick Lewis -170 takes on Rodrigo Nascimento +145 in the main event from the Enterprise Center. I went over every fight on this deep card to give my picks and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 10:55 AM 5/9/2024

Derrick Lewis -170 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento +145

Heavyweight finishers take center stage for our main event, which is unlikely to go all five rounds. Derrick Lewis is the knockout king of the UFC with his always dangerous power and sneaky athleticism; his grappling has never been great, and he is getting up there in age, but his power and experience make him live to end a fight at any moment. Rodrigo Nascimento takes a massive step up in competition here, having shown decent skills on the ground for the division, although he has also failed to separate himself from several lower-tier opponents such as Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser, winning each of those fights in close split-decisions.

I'll pick Lewis to get an early knockout here, as his power and experience will be too much for Nascimento to handle.

Pick: Lewis O/U: Under 1.5 -150


Joaquin Buckley -129 vs. Nursulton Ruziboev +109

A short notice matchup here at Welterweight sees Buckley get his wish to fight in his hometown. Joaquin Buckley is an explosive and athletic striker who has had tremendous success since moving down in weight, dominantly beating solid veterans Vicente Luque and Alex Morono. Nursulton Ruziboev returns here after an odd finish to his last fight with Sedriques Dumas; he moves down in weight here, which is an interesting move as he has struggled at this weight in the past, and being 6'5 it will presumably be a difficult cut on short notice.

I lean towards Ruziboev to get an early finish, although the longer this fight goes, the more I would favor Buckley.

Pick: Ruziboev O/U: Under 1.5 +115

Alonzo Menifield +230 vs. Carlos Ulberg -270

Powerful Light Heavyweights will face off in this high-stakes clash. Alonzo Menifield is a strong puncher with a much-improved ground game, which he has used to finish Jimmy Crute and Askar Mozharov. Carlos Ulberg is a clean, hard-hitting kickboxer with a devastating left hook, which he has used to finish Nicolae Negumereanu and Ihor Potieria.

I'll go with Ulberg here as I see him controlling the distance and landing big shots from the outside to eventually find the knockout.

Pick: Ulberg O/U: Under 1.5 +115


Diego Ferreira +300 vs. Mateusz Rebecki -400

Step up in competition for a highly touted Lightweight as he takes on his most experienced test yet. Diego Ferreira has faced many tough tests in the division, showing his slick ground game and solid striking that he used to knock out Michael Johnson in his last fight. Mateusz Rebecki is a tank who enters this, having finished his last two fights by submission and knockout, redeeming his somewhat disappointing debut and showing he is dangerous wherever the fight goes.

I've got Rebecki here as he has shown he has all the skills to compete with top Lightweights, while Ferreira is nearly forty and has not been very active.

Pick: Rebecki O/U: Under 2.5 -170

Alex Caceres +185 vs. Sean Woodson -220

It's a fun matchup between a veteran and a hometown guy here at Featherweight. Alex Caceres is a veteran with a crafty style, having shown his unique, striking attack and solid grappling over his UFC career. Sean Woodson is a tall and long fighter who uses his length mostly to avoid striking exchanges, as he did in his split-decision win over Charles Jourdain.

I lean towards Woodson to keep at a distance with his jab and take home a low-volume decision.

Pick: Woodson O/U: Over 2.5 -280


Waldo Cortes-Acosta +209 vs. Robelis Despaigne -244

Hard-hitting Heavyweights open the main card in this big-time matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a durable boxer with a big right hand that he swings wildly; he can be low-volume at times, as he showed in his lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski. Robelis Despaigne is one of the most unique prospects we have ever seen, with an incredible record, having finished all five of his fights in the first round, four of them inside the first twenty seconds.

I'll pick Despaigne here, although I can't bet on him at this steep price because of his lack of experience.

Pick: Despaigne O/U: Under 1.5 -225

Chase Hooper +120 vs. Viacheslav Borshchev -140

The classic striker vs. grappler matchup goes down here at Lightweight. Chase Hooper is a slick grappler who continues to develop after joining the UFC at a very young age; his striking defense is concerning, with him having been hurt badly early by Steve Garica at Featherweight. Viacheslav Borshchev is a very talented kickboxer with devastating leg kicks and strong power in his hands; however, he has been out-grappled several times in the UFC, showing an evident lack of skill on the ground.

I'll go with Hooper here. Despite his deficiencies in striking, he should be able to get this fight to the ground rather quickly, where he can dominate and avoid the damage coming back.

Pick: Hooper O/U: Over 1.5 -130


Terrance McKinney +140 vs. Esteban Ribovics -160

Two very exciting Lightweights go head-to-head in this must-see matchup. Terrance McKinney is a fast starter with big power and strong wrestling; his issue is his cardio and durability, as he has yet to win a UFC fight that has gone over half a round. Esteban Ribovics is a dangerous striker with decent submission skills and fantastic cardio; he has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers but showed good defense when on the ground.

I'm taking Ribovics to get the finish here, as he is a better striker, and if McKinney doesn't secure a submission early, he will likely gas out from wrestling as he has before.

Pick: Ribovics O/U: Under 1.5 -260

Tabatha Ricci -142 vs. Tecia Pennington +122

This will be a Strawweight clash of styles here as a veteran returns. Tabatha Ricci has used her high-level grappling to win four of her last five, although when faced with a strong wrestler in Loopy Godinez, she was forced to strike where she could be better. Tecia Torres returns from a long layoff here after having a child; she is a solid striker with good defensive grappling and a high pace.

I've got Pennington here. If she returns similarly to where she was, she can defend the grappling and dominate the striking.

Pick: Pennington O/U: Over 2.5 -400


Trey Waters -160 vs. Billy Goff +140

Welterweights, each coming off impressive debut victories, face off in this one. Trey Waters is a huge and powerful guy for the division, coming off an impressive debut in which he dominated Josh Quinlan. Billy Goff is a tough brawler who comes into this one after finishing his last five opponents by knockout, with four coming in the first round, including his wild UFC debut win over Yusaku Kinoshita.

I'll pick Waters here to use his size advantage, pick Goff apart in the striking, and eventually find a finish.

Pick: Waters O/U: Under 2.5 -165

Jake Hadley -141 vs. Charles Johnson +121

Intriguing matchup here at Flyweight between two guys with something to prove. Jake Hadley came into the UFC with high hopes, although he has struggled thus far, showing solid submission skills, although his wrestling needs to be better to compete with other grapplers. Charles Johnson is a striker with good cardio who can push opponents late, although he can start slowly, and wrestlers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev have controlled him.

I lean towards Johnson as the underdog, as he showed solid defensive wrestling last time out against Azat Maksum.

Pick: Johnson O/U: Over 2.5 -260


Jared Gooden +195 vs. Kevin Jousset -230

Welterweight strikers square off in this fun matchup. Jared Gooden is a durable striker with a hands-down style and very powerful punches, as he showed with his knockout over Niklas Stolze. Kevin Jousset is a good kickboxer who can keep a solid pace, as he showed in his win over Song Kenan, where he was able to win every round.

I took Jousset here and paired him with the over 1.5 rounds to bring the price down, as I see Gooden being able to take his punches at least early in the fight.

Pick: Jousset O/U: Over 1.5 -220

JJ Aldrich +121 vs. Veronica Hardy -141

Flyweights looking to move up in the ranks clash here. JJ Aldrich is a well-rounded fighter who has competed with high-level competition, even having some success against top-ranked Erin Blanchfield in striking and finishing Na Liang with ground and pound. Veronica Hardy has looked much improved since returning from a multiple-year layoff, although she has yet to be tested against any solid competition.

I'm taking Aldrich as the underdog here. She has proven herself at a much higher level and has all the tools needed to dictate how this fight plays out.

Pick: Aldrich O/U: Over 2.5 -500


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Chase Hooper +125

Tecia Pennington +120

JJ Aldrich +115

Esteban Ribovics Inside The Distance -140

Kevin Jousset + Over 1.5 +100

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