The UFC is back in action at the Apex in Las Vegas this weekend with a Heavyweight headliner between Derrick Lewis +185, and Sergey Spivac -233. This card will also feature the highly anticipated return of Doo Ho Choi -192, as he takes on Canadian Kyle Nelson +155.
Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 2/4/2023 3:35 AM EST
Heavyweight finishers meet up in this high-stakes main event. Derrick Lewis is the all-time leader in knockouts, although outside of his power, he does not have any elite skills. Sergey Spivac has grown into a monster in this Heavyweight division, using his heavy grappling attack to dominate opponents.
I'm taking Spivac to finish this fight as he has a massive edge in the grappling, and I see him using this to take Lewis down and eventually take him out.
Pick: Spivac O/U: Over 1.5 +102
Good matchup here at Light Heavyweight. Da Un Jung is a good striker who comes in off his first UFC loss, in which he was finished in the first round. Devin Clark is a veteran whose best attribute is his wrestling.
I'll go with Clark as the underdog here as if he can mix in his wrestling and keep the striking close I see him winning a decision.
Pick: Clark O/U: Over 2.5 +137
Classic Heavyweight brawl here on the main card. Marcin Tybura is coming off a win over the highly touted Alexander Romanov, in which he displayed his resilience and striking. Blagoy Ivanov is as durable as they come, although his offense often leaves much to be desired.
I've got Tybura winning this one, and I am also confident in the over 2.5 rounds, as both are very durable and not the most potent finishers.
Pick: Tybura O/U: Over 2.5 -227
Hard-hitting action is expected in this Featherweight matchup. Doo Ho Choi returns after a long layoff before which he had suffered three straight losses after showing incredible potential early. Kyle Nelson has struggled in his UFC run, going 1-4 so far with the promotion across two weight classes.
I really like Choi here, as even with the time off and the losing streak, if he can come back anywhere near as good as he was, he is still a guy capable of knocking out a lot of good Featherweights.
Pick: Choi O/U: Under 1.5 +113
Lightweight's open the main card here. Yusaku Kinoshita has caught the eye of many with his flashy finishing ability. Adam Fugitt is a tough guy who will keep pressing forward, although he is very hittable.
I am taking Kinoshita here inside the distance as I see him making a statement here in his UFC debut.
Pick: Kinoshita O/U: Under 2.5 -152
A fantastic matchup in the Lightweight final of the Road to UFC tournament. Anshul Jubli is undefeated, having shown a diverse skillset in a short career. Jeka Saragih has not gone the distance much in his career due to his aggressive style of fighting, which has resulted in three straight wins by knockout.
The skill sets of these fighters are very close, which is why the price is even; however, I see much more finishing upside on the Saragih side, so I will bet him hoping for a finish but knowing he could also win a close decision.
Pick: Saragih O/U: Under 2.5 -128
Featherweight final here in the Road to UFC tournament. Zha Yi enters with a solid amount of professional experience, although it is all against questionable competition. Jeong Yeong Lee has won his last three fights in under one minute, but he has also shown the ability to go the distance if needed.
Lee comes into this one off several very impressive showings, and he has a noticeable height and reach advantage that I see being too much for Yi to overcome.
Pick: Lee O/U: Under 1.5
In the Bantamweight final for the Road to UFC tournament. Rinya Nakamura is a dangerous finisher, with most of his pro wins coming in round one. Toshomi Kazama is a solid grappler, although he only had one fight in this tournament.
I see Nakamura winning this fight, although the price makes it difficult to bet.
Pick: Nakamura O/U: Under 1.5 +101
This is the Flyweight final for the Road to UFC tournament. Hyun Sung Park has shown a well-rounded skillset with an ability to mix striking and grappling. Seung Guk Choi is a solid striker, although his grappling is much more of a question mark.
This is a close fight, and I'll take a chance on Choi as the underdog as if he can defend the grappling enough, the striking is much closer.
Pick: Choi O/U: Over 2.5 -227
Two Flyweights in need of a win meet here. Ji Yeon Kim has lost four in a row after dropping two decisions in 2022. Mandy Bohm has lost her first two UFC bouts, although she has a good reach and can use it.
I'll pick Kim here, but I have no interest in putting my money on either side in this matchup.
Pick: Kim O/U: Over 2.5 -385
Fun Middleweight matchup early on the card here. Jun Yong Park is a very durable guy with solid boxing and wrestling. Denis Tiuliulin is a good striker coming off his first UFC win, although he has yet to display much grappling skill.
I'll take Park here, as although the striking is close, I see Park mixing in the grappling and winning a decision.
Pick: Park O/U: Over 2.5 -109
The card opens with one of the best prospects in the UFC. Tatsuro Taira has impressed many with his dominant showings at such a young age, using his high-level grappling to control opponents easily. Jesus Aguilar makes his debut here after a late submission win on Dana White's Contender Series.
I've got Taira inside the distance in this matchup as I see him getting this fight to the ground and either scoring an early submission or getting Aguilar stuck in a ground-and-pound position.
Pick: Taira O/U: Under 1.5 +103
Devin Clark +195
Marcin Tybura -145
Doo Ho Choi -192
Jeka Saragih -109
Seung Guk Choi +160
Sergey Spivac Inside the Distance -149
Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov Over 2.5 Rounds
Yusaku Kinoshtia Inside the Distance +105
Tatsuro Taira Inside the Distance -189
Tatsuro Taira + Rinya Nakamura