UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
September 26, 2024|
5

The UFC returns to Paris, France, this weekend with a card full of French fighters ready to represent their country, including headliner Lightweight star Benoit Saint-Denis, who prepares to take on the streaking Brazilian Renato Moicano. I went over each fight on the main card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 9/26/2024

Renato Moicano +220 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis -278

Lightweight contenders clash in our main event. Renato Moicano is a very slick grappler coming off an impressive comeback against Jalin Turner. In that fight, he survived getting dropped in round one to win in the second by getting the fight to the ground and dominating from top mount. Benoit Saint-Denis is a well-rounded and all-action fighter who had finished five straight opponents before losing to Dustin Poirier in a back-and-forth battle earlier this year. In that fight, he showed his strong wrestling early, although his striking defense looked bad as he continued to charge in with reckless abandonment.

I'm taking Saint-Denis to get a knockout here. He is strong enough to force a striking match, and his power and pressure will be too much for Moicano to handle.

Prediction: Saint-Denis by 1st Round TKO

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Nassourdine Imavov -222 vs. Brendan Allen +175

Fast-rising Middleweights, each coming off main event wins, clash in this intriguing matchup. Nassourdine Imavov is a highly skilled striker with good power and timing, but he can be held in clinch positions for longer than he should with some of the grappling skills he has showcased. Brendan Allen has grown to be a solid fighter with his always dangerous grappling and decent striking, although his durability remains a big concern for me as he doesn't react well to big punches.

I've got Imavov in this one. I feel his striking is much better than Allen's, and he will be able to time his big counter shots and eventually find a finish.

Prediction: Imavov by 2nd Round KO (Best Bet)

William Gomis +235 vs. Joanderson Brito -303

Featherweights looking to break into the rankings go head to head here. William Gomis is a tall kickboxer with solid strikes at range, although his volume is relatively low, and Francis Marshall got him into some very bad spots on the ground. Joanderson Brito is a tank who will come forward and go for the finish from the first second with dangerous power in his hands and a nasty submission game as well.

I'll pick Brito here as although Gomis can have some success striking, I see Brito having a big advantage on the ground and using it to secure a submission win.

Prediction: Brito by 1st Round Submission

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Kevin Jousset +144 vs. Bryan Battle -179

It's a fun matchup here at Welterweight featuring an Ultimate Fighter winner from a few seasons ago. Kevin Jousset is a solid kickboxer who isn't afraid to grapple when he has the advantage, as he did in his UFC debut win over Kiefer Crosbie. Bryan Battle has looked great in his last few fights, showing dangerous power in his striking and using his length well since moving down in weight, although I still have concerns about his wrestling since his loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov, where he was dominated on the ground.

I'm going with Jousset as the underdog here. He can keep it close on the feet and is more likely to succeed in grappling.

Prediction: Jousset by Decision

Morgan Charriere -714 vs. Gabriel Miranda +460

It's a clash of styles in this Featherweight matchup. Morgan Charriere is a slick kickboxer with a very fun style and a wealth of high-level experience from his time in Cage Warriors, having faced names like Jordan Vucenic and Paul Hughes. Gabriel Miranda is a solid submission grappler coming off his first UFC win, where he scored a quick choke against veteran Shane Young.

This price is high, but I will pick Charriere as I see him avoiding the grappling and slowly breaking down a tough Miranda with his massive striking advantage for a late knockout win.

Prediction: Charriere by 3rd Round TKO

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Fares Ziam -132 vs. Matt Frevola +107

Lightweights kick off the main card in this must-see clash. Fares Ziam enters this matchup on a three-fight win streak, having shown solid improvements to his striking and grappling game since his early days in the UFC. Matt Frevola is a very offensive-minded fighter with solid boxing and strong wrestling, although his defense is sometimes suspect, which is a concern.

I lean towards Ziam here as he is the younger of the two, showing more improvements to his game. I see him having success striking at a distance, avoiding much of Frevola's wrestling threat.

Prediction: Ziam by Decision

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