Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 10/9/2025

Charles Oliveira -106 vs. Mateusz Gamrot -115

Short-notice replacement steps in for this main event matchup between highly ranked Lightweights. Charles Oliveira is a former champion who holds the record for most finishes in UFC history with his all-out offense style that features high pace striking and slick submissions, although he is willing to take a lot of damage early, which can cost him. Mateusz Gamrot is a relentless wrestler with some of the best takedowns in the UFC along with decent striking although he also has a tendecncy to get hurt by hard hitters.

I'm going with Gamrot here, as he has the wrestling to get on top and avoid submissions while inflicting damage, and the cardio to go five rounds, even on short notice.

Prediction: Gamrot by Decision

Deiveson Figueiredo +260 vs. Montel Jackson -333

Dangerous finishers face off in this Bantamweight co-main event. Deiveson Figueiredo is a former champion at Flyweight, whose power has carried over to his current weight, although he is coming off a concerning performance against Cory Sandhagen. Montel Jackson is a tall and long striker with serious power, as he proved with his first-round finish of Da'Mon Blackshear during the six-fight win streak he is currently on.

I'll take Jackson here as he is the younger and bigger fighter who comes in riding much more momentum.

Prediction: Jackson by Decision

Vicente Luque +460 vs. Joel Alvarez -714

Welterweight finishers square off in the can't-miss matchup. Vicente Luque has been a nasty finisher throughout his career, boasting a slick submission game and effective striking; however, in recent years, he has clearly lost a step, and the durability he was once known for now seems to be gone. Joel Alvarez comes up in weight here as a well-rounded fighter who has never won by decision in his career, thanks to his powerful striking and nasty submission attack.

I've gotta take Alvarez here as he's such a dangerous fighter, and Luque doesn't have the ability to take the damage that is necessary to get a win in a fight like this anymore.

Prediction: Alvarez by 2nd Round Submission

Jhonata Diniz -132 vs. Mario Pinto +107

Hard-hitting Heavyweights collide in this one. Jhonata Diniz is a powerful kickboxer with devastating power in his hands, but his takedown defense has raised serious concerns. Mario Pinto is a sharp striker who is patient, looking for his big shots, but when he finds them, it is damaging, as he showed by knocking out Austen Lane in his UFC debut.

I'll go with Pinto here, despite being the lower-volume guy, he has the option to mix in some grappling against an opponent who has shown an apparent weakness there.

Prediction: Pinto by Decision

Ricardo Ramos -192 vs. Kaan Ofli +155

Interesting one here at Featherweight with two exciting fighters looking to get back on track. Ricardo Ramos is a dangerous fighter, known for having several spinning elbow finishes, although he also showed his wrestling in a win over Josh Culibao. Kaan Ofli is a well-rounded fighter with solid wrestling and decent hands, although he has struggled against UFC competition so far.

I'm picking Ramos here as he has proven he can win fights at this level and always carries an element of danger, while Ofli hasn't shown much of an offensive threat.

Prediction: Ramos by Decision

Lucas Almeida +121 vs. Michael Aswell -149

Fun matchup here between Featherweight strikers to open the main card. Lucas Almeida is a lengthy and sharp striker with solid power and good timing, although his grappling isn't great, and he can be inconsistent. Michael Aswell is a high-pressure fighter with good hands coming in off a promising debut up in weight against Bolaji Oki.

I lean towards Almeida here as he is the technically sharper striker with more experience and power.

Prediction: Almeida by Decision

Jafel Filho +107 vs. Clayton Carpenter -132

Fantastic matchup here in the featured prelim between grapplers at Flyweight. Jafel Filho is a dangerous submission artist who has ended two UFC fights in the first round, with his losses coming against high-level competition, including nearly submitting Muhammad Mokaev. Clayton Carpenter is a promising prospect who is coming off his first career loss to Tagir Ulanbekov in a tough matchup, still he did finish his first two UFC opponents impressively and has a decision win over Edgar Chairez on Dana White's Contender Series.

I'm going with Carpenter here, as I trust him more to spend time on top, and he has better submission defence, making him more likely to find a finish.

Prediction: Carpenter by Decision

Vitor Petrino -323 vs. Thomas Petersen +245

Heavyweights looking to build momentum clash in this one. Vitor Petrino is a powerful fighter with dangerous boxing and solid grappling, as he showed by submitting Austen Lane in his last fight. Thomas Petersen is a tough wrestler with a strong top game, although he takes a lot of damage when striking and can struggle to take down skilled grapplers.

I'm going with Petrino, as he is much more powerful and athletic, while having a strong enough ground game to prevent Petersen from getting going.

Prediction: Petrino by 2nd Round TKO

Irina Alekseeva +420 vs. Beatriz Mesquita -625

Intriguing matchup between grapplers here at Bantamweight. Irina Alekseeva is a solid grappler with dangerous submissions, although she hasn't always shown the highest fight IQ, like choosing to strike in fights where she has a clear advantage on the ground. Beatriz Mesquita is a decorated submission grappler, making her UFC debut here after claiming the LFA title with her fifth finish in five fights.

This is a good debut matchup for Mesquita as she should be able to get this to the ground, where she is comfortable and will have a clear advantage.

Prediction: Mesquita by 1st Round Submission

Lucas Rocha -123 vs. Sterwart Nicoll +101

Flyweights looking to bounce back from debut losses are matched up in this one. Lucas Rocha is a dangerous striker with significant power for this weight, but his grappling is a concern, as he has been controlled on the regional scene and was dominated on the ground in his debut against Clayton Carpenter. Stewart Nicoll is a strong wrestler with good control from top position and nice ground and pound.

I like Nicoll to get his grappling going here and control Rocha while doing damage and hunting submissions. With that, Stewart Nicoll is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Nicoll by Decision Bet: Nicoll MoneyLine

Valter Walker -323 vs. Mohammed Usman +250

Dangerous Heavyweights square off in this fun matchup. Valter Walker is a tricky submission grappler known for his heel hook, which he has used to win his last three fights. Mohammed Usman is a strong wrestler with solid boxing, although he has struggled against decent competition.

I lean towards Walker here as he is the faster and much more dangerous fighter on the ground.

Prediction: Walker by Decision

Julia Polastri -476 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +350

Big difference in experience here in this Strawweight prelim. Julia Polastri is a well-rounded fighter who keeps good pressure with her boxing and has a good submission game when on the ground. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a veteran kickboxer who has competed with the best in the division, although now at thirty-nine and having taken a lot of damage, her best years are behind her.

I'm going with Polastri as she has clear advantages in terms of age and grappling that I feel will be too much for Kowalkiewicz to overcome.

Prediction: Polastri by Decision

Saimon Oliveira +210 vs. Luan Lacerda -270

Bantamweight grapplers looking for their first UFC win open the card. Saimon Oliveira came into the UFC with most of his wins coming by submission, although he has struggled to grapple much aside from some cage control in his first two fights with the promotion, which both ended in knockout losses. Luan Lacerda is a skilled submission grappler, although he is not the best wrestler, which sometimes forces him to resort to striking.

I'll go with Lacerda here, as I give him the advantage anywhere the fight goes, since he is the better striker, more dangerous on the ground, and more durable.

Prediction: Lacerda by Decision